Local economic effects of Brexit

This paper studies local economic impacts of the increases in trade barriers associated with Brexit. Predictions of the local impact of Brexit are presented under two different scenarios, soft and hard Brexit, which are developed from a structural trade model. Average effects are predicted to be negative under both scenarios, and to be more negative under hard Brexit. The spatial variation in negative shocks across areas is higher in the latter case as some local areas are particularly specialised in sectors that are predicted to be badly hit by hard Brexit. Areas in the South of England, and urban areas, are harder hit by Brexit under both scenarios. Again, this pattern is explained by sector specialisation. Finally, the areas that were most likely to vote remain are those that are predicted to be most negatively impacted by Brexit

Electromagnetic response of LaO_0.94F_0.06FeAs: AC susceptibility and microwave surface resistance

We discuss on the electromagnetic response of a polycrystalline sample of LaO_0.94F_0.06FeAs exposed to DC magnetic fields up to 10 kOe. The low- and high-frequency responses have been investigated by measuring the AC susceptibility at 100 kHz and the microwave surface resistance at 9.6 GHz. At low as well as high DC magnetic fields, the susceptibility strongly depends on the amplitude of the AC driving field, highlighting enhanced nonlinear effects. The field dependence of the AC susceptibility exhibits a magnetic hysteresis that can be justified considering the intragrain-field-penetration effects on the intergrain critical current density. The microwave surface resistance exhibits a clockwise magnetic hysteresis, which cannot be justified in the framework of the critical-state models of the Abrikosov-fluxon lattice; it may have the same origin as that detected in the susceptibility.Comment: 8 pages, 4 embedded eps figures; Proceedings of the 9th EUCAS Conference (Dresden, Germany, September 13-17, 2009

An Inverse Method for Policy-Iteration Based Algorithms

We present an extension of two policy-iteration based algorithms on weighted graphs (viz., Markov Decision Problems and Max-Plus Algebras). This extension allows us to solve the following inverse problem: considering the weights of the graph to be unknown constants or parameters, we suppose that a reference instantiation of those weights is given, and we aim at computing a constraint on the parameters under which an optimal policy for the reference instantiation is still optimal. The original algorithm is thus guaranteed to behave well around the reference instantiation, which provides us with some criteria of robustness. We present an application of both methods to simple examples. A prototype implementation has been done

Design of a Compact Low-Loss Phase Shifter Based on Optical Phase Change Material

We propose the design of a nonvolatile,low-lossopticalphase shifter based on optical phase change material(O-PCM).The opticalphase change material Ge2Sb2Se4Te1(GSST), which exhibitslow lossat telecommunication wavelength1.55 μmas compared to other commonly used O-PCMs, is usedin this work as the active material. Instead of direct interaction of the waveguide mode with the O-PCM, the design utilizescouplingbetween the primary SiN strip waveguide andawaveguide formed by O-PCM, in itsamorphous state.Thephase matching in the amorphous state inhibits theinteraction of the waveguide mode withGSST in itshighly lossy crystalline state resulting in low loss operation.Due to a high differential refractive index between the two states of GSST, the design requires a very small length of the phase shifter to accumulate the desired phase difference.The overall response of the Mach-Zehnder Interferometer (MZI) configurationusing the designedphase shiftershows that the design can be used to obtain optical switching with avery small insertion loss and crosstalk over the entire C-band

Indium segregation to the selvedge of In\u3csub\u3e4\u3c/sub\u3eSe\u3csub\u3e3\u3c/sub\u3e (001)

Thermal motion of the surface atoms will lead to a decrease in photoemission intensity, while surface segregation may result in an increase of some phostoemission intensities. For In4Se3(001), both effects are seen. The Debye–Waller factor plot, based on the temperature dependent X-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS) measurements on In4Se3(001), suggests an upper bound of 203 ± 6 K for the effective Debye temperature, based on the surface component of the In 3d5/2 core-level. Indium is found to segregate to selvedge (subsurface region) of the crystal

The 2020s will be a crunch decade that will determine the UK’s trajectory into the mid-21st century

As vaccines roll out and restrictions are lifted, public debate is turning to the economic recovery from COVID-19 and the deepest annual downturn for 300 years that came in its wake. But viewing the years ahead simply as the post-pandemic period is far too limited a frame, say the authors of the Economy 2020 Inquiry. Instead, the 2020s look set to be the decisive decade during which the UK will need to renew its approach to achieving economic success

Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales : model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human–animal interface. We apply a modelling framework to H5N1 epidemics in the Dhaka region of Bangladesh, occurring from 2007 onwards, that resulted in large outbreaks in the poultry sector and a limited number of confirmed human cases. This model consisted of separate poultry transmission and zoonotic transmission components. Utilising poultry farm spatial and population information a set of competing nested models of varying complexity were fitted to the observed case data, with parameter inference carried out using Bayesian methodology and goodness-of-fit verified by stochastic simulations. For the poultry transmission component, successfully identifying a model of minimal complexity, which enabled the accurate prediction of the size and spatial distribution of cases in H5N1 outbreaks, was found to be dependent on the administration level being analysed. A consistent outcome of non-optimal reporting of infected premises materialised in each poultry epidemic of interest, though across the outbreaks analysed there were substantial differences in the estimated transmission parameters. The zoonotic transmission component found the main contributor to spillover transmission of H5N1 in Bangladesh was found to differ from one poultry epidemic to another. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for these discrepancies in transmission behaviour between epidemics, such as changes in surveillance sensitivity and biosecurity practices