The value of banking relationships during a financial crisis: evidence from failures of Japanese banks

In this paper, we provide evidence on the value of banking relationships by examining the stock market valuation impact of three large bank failures in Japan in 1997 and 1998 on their clients and the clients of surviving banks. Bank failures are theorized to have adverse consequences for other firms in general and for customers of the failed institutions in particular. Firms that are customers of the failed institution may be adversely affected because they may lose an ongoing source of funding and need to incur the expense of search and providing financial and other information about themselves to new lenders. Firms that are not customers of the failed bank may be adversely affected because the failure may signal existing but yet unrecognized problems at other banks, ignite problems at other banks through spillover or contagion, or foretell adverse economic conditions for the economy in the region or nationwide. ; Unlike previous studies of this type, we examine the impact of bank failure announcements on the market valuation not only of the client firms of the failed banks but on all firms including the clients of surviving banks. We find that, as in previous studies, the market value of customers of the failed banks is adversely affected at the date of the failure announcements. Firms that have greater access to alternative sources of funding experience a less severe adverse impact from bank failure announcements. Similarly, clients of banks that are more profitable, better capitalized, and have lower loan loss reserves suffer less from the failure announcements. However, we also find that these effects are not significantly different from the effects experienced by all firms in the economy. That is, the bank failures represent "bad news" for all firms in the economy, not just for the customers of the failed banks.

Cameral deposits in cephalopod shells

30 p., 4 pl., 8 fig.http://paleo.ku.edu/contributions.htm

The value of banking relationships during a financial crisis: evidence from failures of Japanese banks

In this paper, we provide evidence on the value of banking relationships by examining the stock market valuation impact of three large bank failures in Japan in 1997 and 1998 on their clients and the clients of surviving banks. Bank failures are theorized to have adverse consequences for other firms in general, and for customers of the failed institutions in particular. Firms that are customers of the failed institution may be adversely affected because, among other things, they may lose an ongoing source of funding and need to incur the expense of search and providing financial and other information about themselves to new lenders. Hence, severance of banking ties due to a bank failure can have adverse consequences for the clients of the failed bank. In addition, firms that are not customers of the failed bank may be adversely affected because the failure may signal existing but yet unrecognized problems at other banks, ignite problems at other banks through spillover or contagion, or foretell adverse economic conditions for the economy in the region or nationwide. ; Unlike previous studies of this type, we examine not only the impact of bank failure announcements on the market valuation of the client firms of the failed banks, but the impact of the announcements on all firms including the clients of surviving banks. By also examining the stock valuation of the failure announcements for firms that did not have relationships with the failed institutions, we can identify any differences in the effects on clients and non-clients of the failed banks. This is particularly important when the distress or failure announcements occur in the midst of an on-going financial crisis, and therefore, can have strong implications for the viability of surviving banks and their relationships with client firms. ; We find that, as in previous studies, the market value of customers of the failed banks is adversely affected at the date of the failure announcements. In addition, the effects are related to the financial characteristics of the client firms and their primary banks. Firms that have greater access to alternative sources of funding experience a less severe adverse impact from bank failure announcements. Similarly, clients of banks that are more profitable, better capitalized, and have lower loan loss reserves suffer less from the failure announcements. However, we also find that these effects are not significantly different from the effects experienced by all firms in the economy. That is, the bank failures represent "bad news" for all firms in the economy, not just for the customers of the failed banks.Financial crises - Japan ; Bank failures

A dam assessment support system based on physical measurements, sensory evaluations and expert judgements

In engineering system control, human beings can play various key roles, in particular concerning measurement, global assessment and decision. This paper focuses on methods that allow the representation and aggregation of heterogeneous data (sensory evaluations, physical measurements, outputs of mathematical models, etc.) used in a global dam assessment process. It is acknowledged that in such complex systems many of the variables involved are evaluated with uncertainty. We propose a possibility theory-based approach to deal with all the different uncertain pieces of information and propagate them in aggregation models for global dam assessment. Finally, decision-making and communication applications relating to dam safety are presented

Aide à la décision pour l'expertise des barrages

National audienceUn modèle d'évaluation des performances des barrages vis-à-vis de leurs principaux modes de rupture et de dégradation a été développé (Curt, 2008). Les données d'entrée (indicateurs) et de sortie (performance du barrage) de ce modèle sont des distributions de possibilité. Cette communication est axée sur la problématique de la prise de décision associée à ce résultat possibiliste : comment prioriser les actions de maintenance à entreprendre sur le barrage et comment transmettre l'information aux gestionnaires ? Nous proposons une analyse comparative des méthodes de défuzzification afin de sélectionner les méthodes répondant le mieux à cette problématique d'aide à l'expertise des barrages. / An assessment model of dam performances as regards their main failure modes and degradation modes was developed (Curt, 2008). The input data (indicators) and the ouput data (dam performance) of this model are possibility distributions. This paper focuses on the problematic of decision making associated to this possibility result: how to classify maintenance actions that have to be made on that dam and how to convey this result to dam managers? A comparative analysis of defuzzyfication methods is provided; those methods allow to best answer to this problematic of dam expertise

Protandric Simultaneous Hermaphroditism in Parhippolyte Misticia (Clark, 1989) (Caridea: Hippolytidae): Implications for the Evolution of Mixed Sexual Systems in Shrimp

The sexual system of the shrimp Parhippolyte misticia (Clark, 1989), inhabiting the rocky subtidal at Okinawa, Japan and Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, was examined. Dissections suggested that the population consisted of male phase (MP) and functional simultaneous euhermaphrodite (EH) individuals. MPs have cincinulli and appendices masculinae on the first and second pair of pleopods, respectively, gonopores located at the coxae of the third pair of walking legs, and ovotestes with a well-developed male portion containing sperm, but an undeveloped female portion. EHs lacked appendices masculinae and cincinulli. However, they have male gonopores and ovotestes with well-developed ovaries containing mature oocytes and testes with sperm. When EHs were maintained in pairs, both shrimp molted and spawned eggs which attached below the pleon and developed as embryos, demonstrating that EHs can reproduce as males and inseminate other Elis acting as females. These results demonstrate that P misticia is a protandric simultaneous hermaphrodite, as reported before for other shrimp of the genera Lysmata and Exhippolysmata. Also, these results suggest that protandric simultaneous hermaphroditism might have evolved more than once independently in shrimp from the diverse and species-rich Infraorder Caridea. Future research aimed at disentangling the phylogenetic relationship of Parhippolyte, Lysmata, Exhippolysmata and other closely related genera (Calliasmata, Lysmatella, Barbouria) and describing the sociobiology of additional representatives from the genera above is needed to understand the evolutionary history of sexual systems in caridean shrimp. © The Crustacean Society, 2012

Analysis of Predator Avoidance Behavior in California Valley Quail

Quail populations have been in decline across the United States, primarily due to habitat loss and climate. For remedy, landowners and game managers have attempted to restore populations by releasing captive-reared quail. These releases were largely unsuccessful, presumably due to high predation losses. Recently, there has been an increased interest in quail translocations, which tend to have lower mortality rates than captive-reared bird releases. Translocations are expensive and unpredictable, and require many person-hours; releasing captive-reared quail would be more efficient if the practice were successful. We compared predator avoidance behavior between captive-reared and wild-translocated California quail (Callipepla californica) in an aviary using simulated predator attacks (raptorial and mammalian). We recorded predator detection time, antipredator response time, and antipredator response type. Antipredator response type (run, flush, or freeze) frequencies were different, where captive-reared quail ran more frequently than wild-translocated quail when encountering a simulated predator. Predator detection time between captive-reared and wild-translocated quail was not different. However, antipredator response time was quicker for captive-reared quail than wild-translocated quail when subjected to simulated raptorial and mammalian attacks. The differences in antipredator response time and response type may be due to the lack of predator interaction experience of captive-reared birds and offer insight into observed differences in postrelease mortality between captive-reared and wild-trapped quail

Liposomally trapped AraCTP to overcome AraC resistance in a murine lymphoma in vitro.

Two cell lines, one sensitive and one resistant to the cytotoxic effects of cytosine arabinoside (AraC) were studied in vitro as a drug-resistance model. The sensitivity of these cell lines, to the effects of free and liposomally trapped AraC and AraCTP as well as empty liposomes alone and mixed with free drug, was studied. This was done by following the inhibition of [3H]-dT incorporation into cellular DNA during exposure to the various drugs and liposomes. Some of the liposomal-lipid compositions inhibited [3H]-dT incorporation at very low concentrations, which made them unsuitable for further study. Liposomes composed of a 7:2:1 molar ratio of phosphatidylcholine:cholesterol:phosphatidic acid were selected as a suitable non-inhibitory carrier. Sensitivity of the two cell lines to free AraC differed by 3 logs, when compared in the [3H]-dT-incorporation assay. The resistant cell line was studied further, and was found to be up to 2 logs more sensitive to AraCTP when given in liposomes than to either the free drug alone or mixed with empty liposomes. It appears from these studies that liposomes are able to help overcome drug resistance in this cell line in vitro

An Assessment to Benchmark the Seismic Performance of a Code-Conforming Reinforced-Concrete Moment-Frame Building

This report describes a state-of-the-art performance-based earthquake engineering methodology that is used to assess the seismic performance of a four-story reinforced concrete (RC) office building that is generally representative of low-rise office buildings constructed in highly seismic regions of California. This “benchmark” building is considered to be located at a site in the Los Angeles basin, and it was designed with a ductile RC special moment-resisting frame as its seismic lateral system that was designed according to modern building codes and standards. The building’s performance is quantified in terms of structural behavior up to collapse, structural and nonstructural damage and associated repair costs, and the risk of fatalities and their associated economic costs. To account for different building configurations that may be designed in practice to meet requirements of building size and use, eight structural design alternatives are used in the performance assessments. Our performance assessments account for important sources of uncertainty in the ground motion hazard, the structural response, structural and nonstructural damage, repair costs, and life-safety risk. The ground motion hazard characterization employs a site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the evaluation of controlling seismic sources (through disaggregation) at seven ground motion levels (encompassing return periods ranging from 7 to 2475 years). Innovative procedures for ground motion selection and scaling are used to develop acceleration time history suites corresponding to each of the seven ground motion levels. Structural modeling utilizes both “fiber” models and “plastic hinge” models. Structural modeling uncertainties are investigated through comparison of these two modeling approaches, and through variations in structural component modeling parameters (stiffness, deformation capacity, degradation, etc.). Structural and nonstructural damage (fragility) models are based on a combination of test data, observations from post-earthquake reconnaissance, and expert opinion. Structural damage and repair costs are modeled for the RC beams, columns, and slabcolumn connections. Damage and associated repair costs are considered for some nonstructural building components, including wallboard partitions, interior paint, exterior glazing, ceilings, sprinkler systems, and elevators. The risk of casualties and the associated economic costs are evaluated based on the risk of structural collapse, combined with recent models on earthquake fatalities in collapsed buildings and accepted economic modeling guidelines for the value of human life in loss and cost-benefit studies. The principal results of this work pertain to the building collapse risk, damage and repair cost, and life-safety risk. These are discussed successively as follows. When accounting for uncertainties in structural modeling and record-to-record variability (i.e., conditional on a specified ground shaking intensity), the structural collapse probabilities of the various designs range from 2% to 7% for earthquake ground motions that have a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (2475 years return period). When integrated with the ground motion hazard for the southern California site, the collapse probabilities result in mean annual frequencies of collapse in the range of [0.4 to 1.4]x10 -4 for the various benchmark building designs. In the development of these results, we made the following observations that are expected to be broadly applicable: (1) The ground motions selected for performance simulations must consider spectral shape (e.g., through use of the epsilon parameter) and should appropriately account for correlations between motions in both horizontal directions; (2) Lower-bound component models, which are commonly used in performance-based assessment procedures such as FEMA 356, can significantly bias collapse analysis results; it is more appropriate to use median component behavior, including all aspects of the component model (strength, stiffness, deformation capacity, cyclic deterioration, etc.); (3) Structural modeling uncertainties related to component deformation capacity and post-peak degrading stiffness can impact the variability of calculated collapse probabilities and mean annual rates to a similar degree as record-to-record variability of ground motions. Therefore, including the effects of such structural modeling uncertainties significantly increases the mean annual collapse rates. We found this increase to be roughly four to eight times relative to rates evaluated for the median structural model; (4) Nonlinear response analyses revealed at least six distinct collapse mechanisms, the most common of which was a story mechanism in the third story (differing from the multi-story mechanism predicted by nonlinear static pushover analysis); (5) Soil-foundation-structure interaction effects did not significantly affect the structural response, which was expected given the relatively flexible superstructure and stiff soils. The potential for financial loss is considerable. Overall, the calculated expected annual losses (EAL) are in the range of $52,000 to$97,000 for the various code-conforming benchmark building designs, or roughly 1% of the replacement cost of the building ($8.8M). These losses are dominated by the expected repair costs of the wallboard partitions (including interior paint) and by the structural members. Loss estimates are sensitive to details of the structural models, especially the initial stiffness of the structural elements. Losses are also found to be sensitive to structural modeling choices, such as ignoring the tensile strength of the concrete (40 EAL) or the contribution of the gravity frames to overall building stiffness and strength (15 change in EAL). Although there are a number of factors identified in the literature as likely to affect the risk of human injury during seismic events, the casualty modeling in this study focuses on those factors (building collapse, building occupancy, and spatial location of building occupants) that directly inform the building design process. The expected annual number of fatalities is calculated for the benchmark building, assuming that an earthquake can occur at any time of any day with equal probability and using fatality probabilities conditioned on structural collapse and based on empirical data. The expected annual number of fatalities for the code-conforming buildings ranges between 0.05*10 -2 and 0.21*10 -2 , and is equal to 2.30*10 -2 for a non-code conforming design. The expected loss of life during a seismic event is perhaps the decision variable that owners and policy makers will be most interested in mitigating. The fatality estimation carried out for the benchmark building provides a methodology for comparing this important value for various building designs, and enables informed decision making during the design process. The expected annual loss associated with fatalities caused by building earthquake damage is estimated by converting the expected annual number of fatalities into economic terms. Assuming the value of a human life is$3.5M, the fatality rate translates to an EAL due to fatalities of $3,500 to$5,600 for the code-conforming designs, and $79,800 for the non-code conforming design. Compared to the EAL due to repair costs of the code-conforming designs, which are on the order of$66,000, the monetary value associated with life loss is small, suggesting that the governing factor in this respect will be the maximum permissible life-safety risk deemed by the public (or its representative government) to be appropriate for buildings. Although the focus of this report is on one specific building, it can be used as a reference for other types of structures. This report is organized in such a way that the individual core chapters (4, 5, and 6) can be read independently. Chapter 1 provides background on the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) approach. Chapter 2 presents the implementation of the PBEE methodology of the PEER framework, as applied to the benchmark building. Chapter 3 sets the stage for the choices of location and basic structural design. The subsequent core chapters focus on the hazard analysis (Chapter 4), the structural analysis (Chapter 5), and the damage and loss analyses (Chapter 6). Although the report is self-contained, readers interested in additional details can find them in the appendices