Predicting the Failure of Developmental Gold Mining Projects

This paper investigates firm-level financial and non-financial information and their association with project failure for a sample of pre-production gold development firms. Pre-revenue generating 'single project' mining companies are chosen, since project failure is synonymous with company failure for these firms. The setting is interesting due to the high information asymmetry and limitations of the GAAP-based Altman Z-score in this context. A definition of project failure is applied and both financial and non-financial predictors are compared. Failure is driven by whether the deposit is open pit or underground, and whether the cash cost of production is disclosed at feasibility completion. © 2011 CPA Australia

Surficial materials of the York Beach quadrangle, Maine

Maine Geological Survey, Open-File Map 98-167https://digitalmaine.com/mgs_maps/1710/thumbnail.jp

Short selling and firms' disclosure of bad news: evidence from regulation SHO

Published Online: March 2019As informed traders, short sellers enhance the informativeness of stock prices, especially related to bad news, potentially reducing the benefits and increasing litigation and reputational costs of withholding bad news by managers. We exploit a quasi-natural experimental setting provided by the introduction of SEC regulation SHO (Reg-SHO), which significantly reduced the constraints faced by short sellers for an effectively randomly selected subsample of U.S. firms (pilot firms). Relative to control firms, we find pilot firms increase the likelihood of voluntary bad news management forecasts, provide these forecasts in a more timely manner, and accelerate the release of quarterly bad earnings news. Each of these effects is stronger for subsamples of moderate (compared with extreme) bad news, firms facing high (relative to low) litigation risks, and firms with a forecasting history. Similar effects are not observed for voluntary good news forecasts. A range of robustness tests reinforce our results.Gregory J. Clinch, Wei Li, Yunyan Zhan

Predicting the Risk of Disease Recurrence and Death Following Curative-intent Radiotherapy for Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: The Development and Validation of Two Scoring Systems From a Large Multicentre UK Cohort

AIMS: There is a paucity of evidence on which to produce recommendations on neither the clinical nor the imaging follow-up of lung cancer patients after curative-intent radiotherapy. In the 2019 National Institute for Health and Care Excellence lung cancer guidelines, further research into risk-stratification models to inform follow-up protocols was recommended. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study of consecutive patients undergoing curative-intent radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer from 1 October 2014 to 1 October 2016 across nine UK trusts was carried out. Twenty-two demographic, clinical and treatment-related variables were collected and multivariable logistic regression was used to develop and validate two risk-stratification models to determine the risk of disease recurrence and death. RESULTS: In total, 898 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 72 years, 63% (562/898) had a good performance status (0-1) and 43% (388/898), 15% (134/898) and 42% (376/898) were clinical stage I, II and III, respectively. Thirty-six per cent (322/898) suffered disease recurrence and 41% (369/898) died in the first 2 years after radiotherapy. The ASSENT score (age, performance status, smoking status, staging endobronchial ultrasound, N-stage, T-stage) was developed, which stratifies the risk for disease recurrence within 2 years, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the total score of 0.712 (0.671-0.753) and 0.72 (0.65-0.789) in the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The STEPS score (sex, performance status, staging endobronchial ultrasound, T-stage, N-stage) was developed, which stratifies the risk of death within 2 years, with an AUROC for the total score of 0.625 (0.581-0.669) and 0.607 (0.53-0.684) in the derivation and validation sets, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These validated risk-stratification models could be used to inform follow-up protocols after curative-intent radiotherapy for lung cancer. The modest performance highlights the need for more advanced risk prediction tools

Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio and Absolute Lymphocyte Count as Prognostic Markers in Patients Treated with Curative-intent Radiotherapy for Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Aims The neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) have been proposed as prognostic markers in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The objective of this study was to examine the association of NLR/ALC before and after curative-intent radiotherapy for NSCLC on disease recurrence and overall survival. Materials and methods A retrospective study of consecutive patients who underwent curative-intent radiotherapy for NSCLC across nine sites in the UK from 1 October 2014 to 1 October 2016. A multivariate analysis was carried out to assess the ability of pre-treatment NLR/ALC, post-treatment NLR/ALC and change in NLR/ALC, adjusted for confounding factors using the Cox proportional hazards model, to predict disease recurrence and overall survival within 2 years of treatment. Results In total, 425 patients were identified with complete blood parameter values. None of the NLR/ALC parameters were independent predictors of disease recurrence. Higher pre-NLR, post-NLR and change in NLR plus lower post-ALC were all independent predictors of worse survival. Receiver operator curve analysis found a pre-NLR > 2.5 (odds ratio 1.71, 95% confidence interval 1.06–2.79, P 5.5 (odds ratio 2.36, 95% confidence interval 1.49–3.76, P 3.6 (odds ratio 2.41, 95% confidence interval 1.5–3.91, P < 0.001) and a post-ALC < 0.8 (odds ratio 2.86, 95% confidence interval 1.76–4.69, P < 0.001) optimally predicted poor overall survival on both univariate and multivariate analysis when adjusted for confounding factors. Median overall survival for the high-versus low-risk groups were: pre-NLR 770 versus 1009 days (P = 0.34), post-NLR 596 versus 1287 days (P ≤ 0.001), change in NLR 553 versus 1214 days (P ≤ 0.001) and post-ALC 594 versus 1287 days (P ≤ 0.001). Conclusion NLR and ALC, surrogate markers for systemic inflammation, have prognostic value in NSCLC patients treated with curative-intent radiotherapy. These simple and readily available parameters may have a future role in risk stratification post-treatment to inform the intensity of surveillance protocols

The evidence base for chiropractic treatment of musculoskeletal conditions in children and adolescents: The emperor's new suit?

Five to ten percent of chiropractic patients are children and adolescents. Most of these consult because of spinal pain, or other musculoskeletal complaints. These musculoskeletal disorders in early life not only affect the quality of children's lives, but also seem to have an impact on adult musculoskeletal health. Thus, this is an important part of the chiropractors' scope of practice, and the objective of this review is to assess the evidence base for manual treatment of musculoskeletal disorders in children and adolescents

The effectiveness of a multidisciplinary intervention strategy for the treatment of symptomatic joint hypermobility in childhood:A randomised, single Centre parallel group trial (The Bendy Study)

Introduction: Joint hypermobility is common in childhood and can be associated with musculoskeletal pain and dysfunction. Current management is delivered by a multidisciplinary team, but evidence of effectiveness is limited. This clinical trial aimed to determine whether a structured multidisciplinary, multisite intervention resulted in improved clinical outcomes compared with standard care. Method: A prospective randomised, single centre parallel group trial comparing an 8-week individualised multidisciplinary intervention programme (bespoke physiotherapy and occupational therapy in the clinical, home and school environment) with current standard management (advice, information and therapy referral if deemed necessary). The primary endpoint of the study was between group difference in child reported pain from baseline to 12 months as assessed using the Wong Baker faces pain scale. Secondary endpoints were parent reported pain (100 mm visual analogue scale), parent reported function (child health assessment questionnaire), child reported quality of life (child health utility 9-dimensional assessment), coordination (movement assessment battery for children version 2) and grip strength (handheld dynamometer). Results: 119 children aged 5 to 16 years, with symptomatic hypermobility were randomised to receive an individualised multidisciplinary intervention (I) (n = 59) or standard management (S) (n = 60). Of these, 105 completed follow up at 12 months. No additional significant benefit could be shown from the intervention compared to standard management. However, there was a statistically significant improvement in child and parent reported pain, coordination and grip strength in both groups. The response was independent of the degree of hypermobility. Conclusion: This is the first randomised controlled trial to compare a structured multidisciplinary, multisite intervention with standard care in symptomatic childhood hypermobility. For the majority, the provision of education and positive interventions aimed at promoting healthy exercise and self-management was associated with significant benefit without the need for more complex interventions. Trial registration: The trial was registered prospectively with the national database at the Clinical Research Network (UKCRN Portfolio 9366). The trial was registered retrospectively with ISRCTN (ISRCTN86573140)