Population Sizing for the Redundant Trivial Voting Mapping

Mapping-Proble

Forecasting Player Behavioral Data and Simulating in-Game Events

Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors

Tomosyn inhibits synaptic vesicle priming in Caenorhabditis elegans

Caenorhabditis elegans TOM-1 is orthologous to vertebrate tomosyn, a cytosolic syntaxin-binding protein implicated in the modulation of both constitutive and regulated exocytosis. To investigate how TOM-1 regulates exocytosis of synaptic vesicles in vivo, we analyzed C. elegans tom-1 mutants. Our electrophysiological analysis indicates that evoked postsynaptic responses at tom-1 mutant synapses are prolonged leading to a two-fold increase in total charge transfer. The enhanced response in tom-1 mutants is not associated with any detectable changes in postsynaptic response kinetics, neuronal outgrowth, or synaptogenesis. However, at the ultrastructural level, we observe a concomitant increase in the number of plasma membrane-contacting vesicles in tom-1 mutant synapses, a phenotype reversed by neuronal expression of TOM-1. Priming defective unc-13 mutants show a dramatic reduction in plasma membrane-contacting vesicles, suggesting these vesicles largely represent the primed vesicle pool at the C. elegans neuromuscular junction. Consistent with this conclusion, hyperosmotic responses in tom-1 mutants are enhanced, indicating the primed vesicle pool is enhanced. Furthermore, the synaptic defects of unc-13 mutants are partially suppressed in tom-1 unc-13 double mutants. These data indicate that in the intact nervous system, TOM-1 negatively regulates synaptic vesicle priming. © 2006 Gracheva et al

Aspects of Soft and Spontaneous CP Violation

We study four different models for CP violation: the standard (KM) model, the aspon model of spontaneous breaking and two models of soft breaking. In all except the standard model, the strong CP problem is addressed and solved. Testable predictions for the area of the unitarity triangle and for (epsilon'/epsilon)_K are emphasized. The issue of CP violation may well become the first place where the standard model of particle theory is shown definitively to be deficient. There are two reasons for expecting this to happen: (1) the strong CP problem is still not understood in the unadorned standard model and (2) the KM mechanism, although unquestionably present, may not provide the full explanation of epsilon_K and (epsilon'/epsilon)_K.Comment: 24 pages LaTeX including 4 figures. Minor modification to analysis of lower bound for d_n, summarized in new Table I

The afterglow and kilonova of the short GRB 160821B

GRB 160821B is a short duration gamma-ray burst (GRB) detected and localized by the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory in the outskirts of a spiral galaxy at z=0.1613, at a projected physical offset of 16 kpc from the galaxy's center. We present X-ray, optical/nIR and radio observations of its counterpart and model them with two distinct components of emission: a standard afterglow, arising from the interaction of the relativistic jet with the surrounding medium, and a kilonova, powered by the radioactive decay of the sub-relativistic ejecta. Broadband modeling of the afterglow data reveals a weak reverse shock propagating backward into the jet, and a likely jet-break at 3.5 d. This is consistent with a structured jet seen slightly off-axis while expanding into a low-density medium. Analysis of the kilonova properties suggests a rapid evolution toward red colors, similar to AT2017gfo, and a low nIR luminosity, possibly due to the presence of a long-lived neutron star. The global properties of the environment, the inferred low mass (M_ej < 0.006 Msun) and velocities (v > 0.05 c) of lanthanide-rich ejecta are consistent with a binary neutron star merger progenitor.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, MNRAS, in press. Moderate revision, added Figure 5 and X-ray data to Table

Beyond inverse Ising model: structure of the analytical solution for a class of inverse problems

I consider the problem of deriving couplings of a statistical model from measured correlations, a task which generalizes the well-known inverse Ising problem. After reminding that such problem can be mapped on the one of expressing the entropy of a system as a function of its corresponding observables, I show the conditions under which this can be done without resorting to iterative algorithms. I find that inverse problems are local (the inverse Fisher information is sparse) whenever the corresponding models have a factorized form, and the entropy can be split in a sum of small cluster contributions. I illustrate these ideas through two examples (the Ising model on a tree and the one-dimensional periodic chain with arbitrary order interaction) and support the results with numerical simulations. The extension of these methods to more general scenarios is finally discussed.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figure

Constraints on the Cosmic Expansion History from GWTC–3

We use 47 gravitational wave sources from the Third LIGO–Virgo–Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC–3) to estimate the Hubble parameter H(z), including its current value, the Hubble constant H0. Each gravitational wave (GW) signal provides the luminosity distance to the source, and we estimate the corresponding redshift using two methods: the redshifted masses and a galaxy catalog. Using the binary black hole (BBH) redshifted masses, we simultaneously infer the source mass distribution and H(z). The source mass distribution displays a peak around 34 M⊙, followed by a drop-off. Assuming this mass scale does not evolve with the redshift results in a H(z) measurement, yielding (68% credible interval) when combined with the H0 measurement from GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart. This represents an improvement of 17% with respect to the H0 estimate from GWTC–1. The second method associates each GW event with its probable host galaxy in the catalog GLADE+, statistically marginalizing over the redshifts of each event\u27s potential hosts. Assuming a fixed BBH population, we estimate a value of with the galaxy catalog method, an improvement of 42% with respect to our GWTC–1 result and 20% with respect to recent H0 studies using GWTC–2 events. However, we show that this result is strongly impacted by assumptions about the BBH source mass distribution; the only event which is not strongly impacted by such assumptions (and is thus informative about H0) is the well-localized event GW190814

Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 with a hidden Markov model in O3 LIGO data

Results are presented for a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to allow for spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory data by including the orbital period in the search template grid, and by analyzing data from the latest (third) observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 500 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1 using a HMM to date. For the most sensitive subband, starting at 256.06 Hz, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) of h95%0=6.16×10−26, assuming the orbital inclination angle takes its electromagnetically restricted value ι=44°. The upper limits on gravitational wave strain reported here are on average a factor of ∼3 lower than in the second observing run HMM search. This is the first Scorpius X-1 HMM search with upper limits that reach below the indirect torque-balance limit for certain subbands, assuming ι=44°

First joint observation by the underground gravitational-wave detector KAGRA with GEO 600

We report the results of the first joint observation of the KAGRA detector with GEO 600. KAGRA is a cryogenic and underground gravitational-wave detector consisting of a laser interferometer with 3 km arms, located in Kamioka, Gifu, Japan. GEO 600 is a British–German laser interferometer with 600 m arms, located near Hannover, Germany. GEO 600 and KAGRA performed a joint observing run from April 7 to 20, 2020. We present the results of the joint analysis of the GEO–KAGRA data for transient gravitational-wave signals, including the coalescence of neutron-star binaries and generic unmodeled transients. We also perform dedicated searches for binary coalescence signals and generic transients associated with gamma-ray burst events observed during the joint run. No gravitational-wave events were identified. We evaluate the minimum detectable amplitude for various types of transient signals and the spacetime volume for which the network is sensitive to binary neutron-star coalescences. We also place lower limits on the distances to the gamma-ray bursts analyzed based on the non-detection of an associated gravitational-wave signal for several signal models, including binary coalescences. These analyses demonstrate the feasibility and utility of KAGRA as a member of the global gravitational-wave detector network