Erosione della costa di Holderness: costruzione di un modello gerarchico a effetti casuali per dati censurati

An awareness of the possible cliff position at some future date is fundamental to coastal planning and shoreline management, for example to avoid development in vulnerable areas. At the beginning, to predict cliff recession rates deterministic methods have been investigated. Then, recession predictions are being expressed in probabilistic terms. However, so far, only easy models were developed. We consider the cliff erosion at the Holderness Coast: since 1951 a monitoring program started in 118 stations along the coast, providing an invaluable, but often censored, source of information. We built hierarchical random effect models, taking account of the known dynamics of the process and including the censored information

Processi di punto parametrici e non parametrici per la modellazione di eventi vulcanici estremi in presenza di censura.

Extreme value theory provides a class of models for the behaviour of stochastic processes at extreme levels. Since volcanic eruptions are (at least in a non-scientific sense) extreme events, it might be hoped that there is some role for the extreme value models in the science of volcanology. In this article we explore such a possibility through a particular catalogue of extreme eruptions registered in the last two millennia. The analysis is based on a particular point process characterization of extremes: it takes into account that historical events in the dataset are less likely to have been recorded than recent events and that this effect seems especially pronounced for events of relatively low magnitude. Ignoring these aspects can lead to a biased estimate of extremal behaviour

The Evaluation of the Process of Cultural Good Consumption for Different Profiles of Consumers. The case of the Scrovegni Chapel.

In this paper, we investigate the cultural, social and emotional elements affecting the satisfaction process of artistic consumption and we look for satisfaction diversity among different visitor profiles. A sample analysis of the visitors to the Scrovegni Chapel by Giotto in Padua was performed through an ordinal logit model, to identify significant items for general satisfaction with the visit, and through a cluster analysis, to depict visitor profiles for artistic goods. The main result of the statistical analysis is that each dimension affects satisfaction while satisfaction itself varies with the different profiles of the consumer of art. This means that the analysis of demand for artistic goods is useful both for management of artistic events in order to find a suitable organization, and for territorial marketing to attract consumers of aesthetic goods

Pleural Mesothelioma: forecasts of the death toll in the area of Casale Monferrato, Italy

In the city of Casale Monferrato, the largest Italian factory that produced asbestos cement goods was active from 1907 to 1985. As a consequence, asbestos fibers scattered in the surrounding area and caused an enormous number of pleural mesotheliomas. Due to the very long latency of this disease, many subjects have not exhibited its symptoms yet. The aim of this paper is to model and predict the future evolution of the number of deaths due to this disease among residents in the area around that city. The model used here is based on a Cellular Automata that is assumed to pass through three steps: exposure, contamination, diagnosis. In that way, forecasts of the future evolution take into account the environmental conditions that changed in time during the last century because of different levels in plant activity. The model is fitted to annual diagnosis data starting from 1954 to 2009. Results show that deaths will not end until 2033, and that in the next two decades, at least 479 more subjects will be diagnosed with this disease

A comparison between American and European wind energy diffusion models.

The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 planned for all the subscribing countries a reduction of greenhouse gases by 5.2% with respect to the values of 1990. The production of electric energy through renewable energy systems is one of the ways to respect Kyoto limits. For this reasons, the countries that signed the protocol started to promote incentives policies for the adoption of these new technologies. The United States, although not subscribers of the protocol, is also committed in some way to create renewable electric energy. In particular with respect to the wind energy systems, the US is classified as one of the leader countries after Germany and Spain and often compared with European countries. On the contrary, since for comparing installed wind turbines capacity it is crucial to avoid all plain nuisance factors, we propose to compare the US diffusion model with that of Europe, that is a region similar for extension of geographical area and wind speed. Generalized Bass models were performed to estimate the life-cycle of innovations in the markets of the two regions

Diffusion of nuclear energy in some developing and graduated developing countries.

Electric power demand is increasing worldwide and, in the last years, energy policy has focused on expanding nuclear power, especially in developing countries. One of the key points surrounding this issue is the depletion time of uranium; further, forecasters had estimated that the use of nuclear reactors would come to a halt in 2020 by AIEA. It is apparent that we can no longer sustain the evolutionary model of energy consumption typical of the last century. The Fukushima disaster of 2011 reopened the debate about the use of nuclear energy to produce electricity. Japan, Switzerland and Germany decided to halt new nuclear projects. However, the question remains: would the world's uranium resources suce to meet nuclear energy projects, especially those slated in the developing countries? This paper oers an analysis of nuclear energy diffusion of some graduated developing countries (the Slovak Republic and South Korea) and some developing countries (Ukraine, China, Bulgaria, and India); moreover, it estimates the depletion time of uranium using a Generalized Bass model and OECD forecasts, with the uranium requirements scheduled for 2035. This study concludes that, given the estimated depletion time of uranium, and considering 50 years as a reasonable lifetime for reactors, the present international nuclear energy policy, and in particular the nuclear projects of the developing countries are not sustainable.

Short-term forecasts of the spread of wind power technology across countries

The production of electric energy through renewable energy systems is one way to respect Kyoto Protocol limits. The US, although not a subscriber to the protocol, is also committed in some way to creating renewable electric energy and, with respect to wind energy systems, is classified as one of the leading countries. Since when analyzing installed wind turbines capacity it is important to compare similar geographic areas, we propose here to compare the US with Europe. Some leading European countries are also included in the analysis. Estimates and short-term forecasts of the life-cycles of wind power innovations are provided through Generalized Bass models, detecting the effects of the local incentive policies. Furthermore, this class of models came first in the ranking of forecasting accuracy performances over a set of accuracy measures and forecasting horizons, when compared with the Standard Bass, Logistic, and Gompertz models

Cultural Goods, Motivations and Consumer Behaviour.

There is wide theoretical consensus on the fact that present-day urban economic development is largely culture-led. This means that cities are special places for the production and consumption of symbolic goods. Urban economic performance depends on the administrative competence of local policy-makers to organize creative resources, talents and cultural images. Cities are cultural clusters, requiring closer attention to the factors that foster co-operative processes, the development of cultural activities and cultural consumption patterns. In this paper we focus on the last process. The motivations and expectations of cultural consumers are crucial elements for understanding the efficacy of the urban supply of cultural goods. Our empirical study, based on a sample of visitors to the Scrovegni Chapel in Padua, first describes the visitor features of an artistic good and then investigates the emotional-cognitive content of the visit itself

Formação de professores de inglês para a Educação Infantil: Estratégias curriculares em universidades federais do Brasil

Teaching English in Early Childhood Education is a reality in Brazil, despite its lack of requirement according to current legislations. There is a demand for professionals to teach, but English majors usually do not embrace this age group which would be the focus of Pedagogy. Therefore, a study was developed to comprehend how universities are preparing teachers for this scenario, considering there is no official requirement for curriculum organization. The aim of this paper is to reflect on teacher education and curriculum theories, focusing on how universities have changed their curriculums to deal with the “gap” found in teacher education for this context. The data collected included documents of all Federal Universities in Brazil, based on the Course Pedagogical Project (PPC) available on the website of each university. The results indicate that several Brazilian universities are developing strategies to deal with this scenario in their curriculums, using different approaches. Thus, this paper discusses the results found, specially focused on the curricular strategies adopted by some universities, and their benefits to student-teachers.O ensino de língua inglesa na Educação Infantil é uma realidade no Brasil, apesar da não obrigatoriedade de acordo com diretrizes educacionais vigentes. Há demanda por profissionais, mas os cursos de Licenciatura em Letras-Inglês geralmente não contemplam essa faixa etária, que seria foco da Pedagogia. Diante deste contexto, um estudo foi desenvolvido para compreender como universidades estão preparando professores para este cenário, considerando que não há exigências formais acerca da organização curricular. O objetivo deste artigo é refletir sobre formação de professores e teorias de currículo, com foco nas mudanças curriculares realizadas pelas universidades para lidar com a “lacuna” encontrada na formação de professores para este contexto. Os dados coletados incluíram todas as Universidades Federais do Brasil, com base no Projeto Pedagógico de Curso (PPC) disponível no website da universidade. Os resultados indicam que diversas universidades brasileiras estão desenvolvendo estratégias para lidar com esse cenário em seus currículos, utilizando diferentes abordagens. Portanto, este artigo traz os resultados encontrados com foco nas estratégias curriculares adotadas por algumas universidades, e seus benefícios para  alunos-professores