The Economic Benefits of Computer-Integrated Manufacturing (Paper I)

Two papers are presented here together in one package. The first is a general introductory and theoretical discussion of the problem of economic benefits estimation for CIM technologies. It was written by Robert U. Ayres, leader of the CIM project and Jeffrey L. Funk, now at Westinghouse R&D center. The second paper presents a particular (macroeconometric) methodology as applied to the benefits of robots and NC machine tools for a single country: Japan. It was written by Shunsuke Mori, a member of the CIM project team at IIASA. It is hoped that the results will be of considerable interest in themselves, as well as providing a viable model for future extension to other countries

The Role of Machine Sensing in CIM

Computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) is still an objective for the future rather than a present reality. Mechanical integration was introduced over 60 years ago by Ford to increase output and cut unit costs, but at the cost of making high volume production extremely inflexible. The answer is apparently "computer integration" with multi-purpose machines linked together by digital communications networks and adaptively controlled by computers. In practice this means replacing flexible human workers with high quality sensory interpretative abilities as decision-makers by "smart sensors" with artificial intelligence. However, adaptive controls are severely constrained by the capabilities of existing sensors and interpretative computer software, especially the latter. Most existing sensors are narrow-band, producing at most a few bits of data per second for control purposes. This provides enough information for a small class of machine control decisions, but is insufficient for part recognition, part orientation, or quality inspection. CIM also means that workpieces (components and work-in-progress) will have to communicate with machines, as machines will have to communicate with each other. Thus, the true economic significance of recent breakthroughs in machine vision/taction is that they will finally unlock the door to CIM, or "5th generation" automation. It is argued that the economics of machine vision/taction should not be assessed in the narrow context of specific tasks in direct competition with human workers but as the hitherto missing link that will permit all the elements of the factory of the future to communicate efficiently with each other so as to function as an organism rather than as a set of independent cells

Predictors of prevalent statin use among older adults identified as statin initiators based on Medicare claims data

Purpose: Few studies have evaluated the degree to which prescription drug initiators are correctly identified using claims data. We examine the prevalence and predictors of recent statin possession in statin initiators identified using claims data. Methods: Among Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) respondents, we used Medicare Part D claims from 2006 to 2011 to identify statin initiators using a 12-month baseline period of no prior statin claims. Using MCBS interview data, we identified those with self-reported statins obtained during the baseline period. We used log-binomial regression to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (adjPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for predictors of recent statin possession. Results: Among 766 statin initiators identified in prescription claims, 155 (20%) reported recent statin possession during baseline. Beneficiaries with no Part D claims in the past 30 days (adjPR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.13, 1.96), those with no inpatient, outpatient or physician visits in the past 30 days (adjPR = 1.50, 95%CI: 1.11, 2.03), those with a brand name statin index claim (adjPR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.19, 2.02), and those with an index claim in January or February (adjPR = 1.50, 95%CI: 1.00, 2.26) had an increased probability of recent statin possession. Conclusions: In a cohort of statin initiators identified using prescription claims, 20% had evidence of statin possession during the baseline period. Pharmacoepidemiologic new user studies may benefit from including sensitivity analyses within subgroups less likely to include prevalent users to assess the robustness of key findings to misidentification of the time of treatment initiation

Supporting document for the historical tank content estimate for AW-tank farm

This Supporting Document provides historical in-depth characterization information on AW-Tank Farm, such as historical waste transfer and level data, tank physical information, temperature plots, liquid observation well plots, chemical analyte and radionuclide inventories for the Historical Tank Content Estimate Report for the Southeast Quadrant of the Hanford 200 Areas

Trends in the use of disease-modifying therapies among reproductive-aged women with multiple sclerosis in the United States from 2010 to 2019

Purpose: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease of the central nervous system that disproportionately affects women, with typical onset during reproductive age. Several disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are FDA-approved to slow disease progression, but are not indicated for use during pregnancy. Our objective was to describe trends over time (2010–2019) in monthly point prevalence of DMT use among reproductive-age women, overall and by generic name. Methods: This study used administrative claims data from the US during 2009–2019 to identify women age 15–44 with MS and continuous insurance coverage for ≥12 months. DMTs were identified using prescription fills and procedural claims for alemtuzumab, daclizumab, dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, glatiramer acetate, interferon beta, mitoxantrone, natalizumab, ocrelizumab, and teriflunomide. Monthly prevalent use was defined as ≥1 days' supply of a DMT in the month. Age- and region-standardized monthly prevalence was estimated nonparametrically. Results: Among 42 281 reproductive-aged women over 818 179 person-months, DMT use increased from a minimum monthly prevalence of 49.3% (February, 2011) to a maximum of 58.7% (April, 2019). In 2010, prevalence of injectable DMTs was 43.1% compared to 2.5% for oral DMTs; by 2014, however, oral DMTs (26.5%) surpassed injectable DMTs (23.7%) as the most common route of administration. In the most recent data available (December, 2019), the most common DMTs were dimethyl fumarate, glatiramer acetate, and fingolimod. Conclusions: DMT use among reproductive-aged women has rapidly evolved during the past decade. Collaborative treatment decision making between women with MS and clinicians may help optimize MS care and improve DMT uptake during reproductive years

Methodological considerations when analysing and interpreting real-world data

In the absence of relevant data from randomized trials, nonexperimental studies are needed to estimate treatment effects on clinically meaningful outcomes. State-of-the-art study design is imperative for minimizing the potential for bias when using large healthcare databases (e.g. claims data, electronic health records, and product/disease registries). Critical design elements include new-users (begin follow-up at treatment initiation) reflecting hypothetical interventions and clear timelines, active-comparators (comparing treatment alternatives for the same indication), and consideration of induction and latent periods. Propensity scores can be used to balance measured covariates between treatment regimens and thus control for measured confounding. Immortal-time bias can be avoided by defining initiation of therapy and follow-up consistently between treatment groups. The aim of this manuscript is to provide a non-technical overview of study design issues and solutions and to highlight the importance of study design to minimize bias in nonexperimental studies using real-world data

Ondansetron use in early pregnancy and the risk of late pregnancy outcomes

Background: The effects of ondansetron, used off-label to treat nausea and vomiting during pregnancy, on common pregnancy complications are understudied. Modest effects of a commonly used drug could result in adverse events for large numbers of pregnant women. Therefore, our objective was to compare the risk of stillbirth, preterm birth, gestational hypertensive disorders, small for gestational age, and differences in birth weight between women prescribed ondansetron and women prescribed alternative antiemetics in early pregnancy. Methods: A cohort of pregnant women receiving a prescription for ondansetron or comparator antiemetics (metoclopramide or promethazine) during the first 20 weeks of pregnancy was identified using electronic health record data from a health care system in North Carolina, USA. Confounding by multiple covariates was controlled using stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights. Weighted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) accounted for competing events. Results: We identified 2677 eligible pregnancies with antiemetic orders, 66% for ondansetron. The small number of stillbirths (n = 15) resulted in an imprecise estimate of the association with ondansetron (HR = 1.60; 95%CI 0.51, 4.97). No association was observed for preterm birth (HR = 0.90; 95%CI 0.67, 1.20) or gestational hypertensive disorders (HR = 0.87; 95%CI 0.68, 1.12). We observed an association with small for gestational age (HR = 1.37; 95%CI 0.98, 1.90), however mean birth weight among term births was similar between groups. Conclusions: Our results do not suggest that ondansetron increases the risk of preterm birth or gestational hypertensive disorders. The weak association observed between ondansetron use and small for gestational age warrants further investigation

Careful Curation of Care Content:A Case Study of a Technology-Supported Atrial Fibrillation Outpatient Clinic

Medical care received outside the doctor’s office and the hospital is gaining traction. Lifestyle programs for transmural and remote care are increasingly facilitated by hospitals as part of rehabilitation, by general practitioners as preventative measures, and by various private (health) organizations through consumer apps. What is often overlooked is the time and energy spent on creating the content (i.e., health information and education) in these programs so that it is effective, appealing, relatable, and personalized. In this article, we discuss the elaborate content creation process of lifestyle content for an outpatient clinic for atrial fibrillation patients. We describe the close collaboration between clinicians, design researchers, data designers, and a copywriter, and reflect on how to streamline and formalize the clinical content creation process. Additionally, we highlight opportunities for further content personalization by making it dynamic, more versatile in terms of delivery and expanding the system further into the home context

Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system-based antihypertensive agents and the risk of colorectal cancer among medicare beneficiaries

Background: Biologic evidence suggests that angiotensin II may play a role in tumor progression or growth. We compared the short-term colorectal cancer (CRC) risk among initiators of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB) versus guideline-recommended clinical alternatives (beta blockers, calcium channel blockers [CCB], and thiazides). Methods: We conducted a new-user cohort study on U.S. Medicare beneficiaries aged over 65 years, who initiated antihypertensive monotherapy during 2007-2013 and were free of cancer diagnosis before drug initiation. Follow-up began 6 months postinitiation to allow time for the diagnostic delay. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using propensity score weighted Cox regression, overall and stratified by time since drug initiation, and 5-year cumulative risk differences (RD) using Kaplan-Meier estimator. We assessed the potential for unmeasured confounding using supplemental data from Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. Results: For analyses without censoring for treatment changes, we observed 532 CRC events among 111,533 ACEI/ARB initiators. After a median follow-up of 2.2 years (interquartile range: 1.0-3.7), CRC risk was similar between ACEI/ARB and active comparators, with adjusted HRs of 1.0 (95% CI = 0.85, 1.1) for ACEI/ARB versus beta blockers, 1.2 (95% CI = 0.97, 1.4) for ACEI/ARB versus CCB and 1.0 (95% CI = 0.80, 1.3) for ACEI/ARB versus thiazide. Five-year RDs and as-treated analyses, which censored follow-up at medication changes, produced similar findings. Conclusions: Based on real-world antihypertensive utilization patterns in Medicare beneficiaries, our study suggests no association between ACEI/ARB initiation and the short-term CRC risk

Ondansetron use in early pregnancy and the risk of miscarriage

Background: Ondansetron is commonly used to treat nausea and vomiting in pregnancy despite inconclusive evidence of its safety. Previous studies have reported no increase in risk of miscarriage but relied on methods that failed to account for gestational weeks at risk and non-user comparators, which may increase the potential for unmeasured confounding. Our objective was to estimate the risk of miscarriage among women prescribed ondansetron vs alternative antiemetics during the first 20 weeks of pregnancy. Methods: A pregnancy cohort was created using electronic health record data from a health care system in North Carolina. Women were classified as exposed to either ondansetron or comparator antiemetics (metoclopramide or promethazine) based on the first antiemetic prescription received in the first 20 weeks of gestation. Cumulative incidence of miscarriage at 20 weeks was estimated in each antiemetic group. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated with 95% confidence intervals and measured confounding was controlled using inverse probability of treatment weights. Sensitivity analyses assessed the potential impact of exposure misclassification, latency period, and selection bias. Results: We identified 2620 eligible pregnancies with antiemetic orders; 65% had a first ondansetron order and 35% had a first comparator antiemetic order. In total, 95 women had a miscarriage. After adjustment, there was no difference in risk of miscarriage (HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.77, 1.90). Results from the per-protocol and other sensitivity analyses were similar to the main analysis. Conclusions: We did not observe an increase in the risk of miscarriage for pregnancies exposed to ondansetron vs comparator antiemetics