Applying machine learning to predict future adherence to physical activity programs.

BackgroundIdentifying individuals who are unlikely to adhere to a physical exercise regime has potential to improve physical activity interventions. The aim of this paper is to develop and test adherence prediction models using objectively measured physical activity data in the Mobile Phone-Based Physical Activity Education program (mPED) trial. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first to apply Machine Learning methods to predict exercise relapse using accelerometer-recorded physical activity data.MethodsWe use logistic regression and support vector machine methods to design two versions of a Discontinuation Prediction Score (DiPS), which uses objectively measured past data (e.g., steps and goal achievement) to provide a numerical quantity indicating the likelihood of exercise relapse in the upcoming week. The respective prediction accuracy of these two versions of DiPS are compared, and then numerical simulation is performed to explore the potential of using DiPS to selectively allocate financial incentives to participants to encourage them to increase physical activity.Resultswe had access to a physical activity trial data that were continuously collected every 60 sec every day for 9 months in 210 participants. By using the first 15 weeks of data as training and test on weeks 16-30, we show that both versions of DiPS have a test AUC of 0.9 with high sensitivity and specificity in predicting the probability of exercise adherence. Simulation results assuming different intervention regimes suggest the potential benefit of using DiPS as a score to allocate resources in physical activity intervention programs in reducing costs over other allocation schemes.ConclusionsDiPS is capable of making accurate and robust predictions for future weeks. The most predictive features are steps and physical activity intensity. Furthermore, the use of DiPS scores can be a promising approach to determine when or if to provide just-in-time messages and step goal adjustments to improve compliance. Further studies on the use of DiPS in the design of physical activity promotion programs are warranted.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01280812 Registered on January 21, 2011

NHC-catalyzed cleavage of vicinal diketones and triketones followed by insertion of enones and ynones

Thiazolium carbene-catalyzed reactions of 1,2-diketones and 1,2,3-triketones with enones and ynones have been investigated. The diketones gave α,β-double acylation products via unique Breslow intermediates isolable as acid salts, whereas the triketones formed stable adducts with the NHC instead of the coupling products

Stability of Fiber Reinforced Sand Retaining Walls

A ten meter high retaining wall made by sands reinforced with continuous fibers was constructed in 1988. Thickness of the retaining wall was 1 mat the top and 2.5 m at the bottom, and the slope was 63° at the face and 71° at the back. Earth pressure acting on the wall, displacements of the face, settlements of the fill and acceleration of the retaining wall were measured. During the construction, around the third height of the wall was displaced 15 cm in a forward direction. At the time of an earthquake, the values of the maximum horizontal acceleration at the original ground surface and at the top of the retaining wall were recorded to be 95 gal and 200 gal respectively, and no damage was found. The relation between the increment of the earth pressure during earthquake and the movements of the wall and the fill is discussed

NHC-catalyzed cleavage of vicinal diketones and triketones followed by insertion of enones and ynones

Thiazolium carbene-catalyzed reactions of 1,2-diketones and 1,2,3-triketones with enones and ynones have been investigated. The diketones gave α,β-double acylation products via unique Breslow intermediates isolable as acid salts, whereas the triketones formed stable adducts with the NHC instead of the coupling products

A consortium study of Antarctic micrometeorites recovered from the Dome Fuji Station

Deposits in the water tank at the Dome Fuji Station were collected by the 37th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition team in 1996. We recovered 233 micrometeorites from the deposits. A consortium study was started in late 1998 to investigate mineralogy, petrology, bulk chemistry, and isotopic compositions of the micrometeorites. This is the first case of an organized study of micrometeorites in Japan, in order to establish the methods to investigate micrometeorites routinely. Consortium results on mineralogy, petrology, minor and trace element compositions, isotopic compositions of noble gases of the micrometeorites are reported in this volume. We also found a sequence of mineralogical and compositional changes of micrometeorites experienced from frictional heating during atmospheric entry. INAA and ion probe studies are now in progress

General characterization of Antarctic micrometeorites collected by the 39th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition: Consortium studies of JARE AMMs (III)

From November 1998 to January 1999,the 39th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE-39) undertook Japanese first large-scale collection of Antarctic micrometeorites (AMMs), with sizes larger than 10μm, at the Meteorite Ice Field around the Yamato Mountains in Antarctica (at three different locations, for a total of 24 collection sites). The number of collected AMMs larger than 40μm is estimated to be about 5000. Here we present the general characterization (i.e., micro-morphology and surface chemical composition using SEM/EDS) of ∿810 AMMs chosen from 5 of the 24 sites. Additionally, the mineral composition of 61 out of 810 AMMs was determined by Synchrotron X-ray radiation. Preliminary results on mineralogical and chemical compositions show similarities with that of previous studies, even though a pronounced alteration of some AMMs is noticed. A correlation is found between the Mg/Si ratio at the sample\u27s surfaces of unmelted AMMs and the age of snow/ice in which the AMMs are embedded

Price shocks in regional markets: Japan's great Kantō Earthquake of 1923

Japan’s Great Kantō Earthquake of September 1st 1923 devastated the area around Tokyo and the country’s main port of Yokohama. This paper uses the earthquake as a case study to inform our understanding of the economics of disasters and the history of market integration. It seeks to test two main assumptions: firstly, that shifting demand and supply curves consequent on a disaster will have some impact on prices; and secondly, that any local changes in the disaster region are likely to be diffused across a wider geographical area. We make use of a unique monthly wholesale price dataset for a number of cities across Japan, and our analysis suggests three main findings: that price changes in the affected areas immediately following the disaster were in most cases reflected in price changes in Japan’s provincial cities; that cities further away from the devastation witnessed smaller price changes than those nearer to the affected area; and that the observed pattern of price changes reflects the regional heterogeneity identified by scholars who have worked on market integration in Japan

EGFR Inhibitor Enhances Cisplatin Sensitivity of Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma Cell Lines

Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is involved in multiple aspects of cancer cell biology. EGFR has already been identified as an important target for cancer therapy, with various kinds of EGFR inhibitors currently used in treatment of several human cancers. Recently, EGFR and its downstream signaling pathways were identified as being associated with cisplatin sensitivity. In addition, EGFR inhibitors have shown significant promise for patients who failed cisplatin-based therapy. In this study, we investigated whether treatment with an EGFR inhibitor improves cisplatin sensitivity in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) cell lines. The effects of a combination of AG1478, a specific EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor, with cisplatin were evaluated in cultured OSCC cell lines and cisplatin-resistant sublines. Higher expression of EGFR and p-EGFR was found in the two cisplatin-resistant cell lines compared with the corresponding parental cell lines. In addition, augmented inhibition of OSCC cell growth by the combination of AG1478 with cisplatin was found in both cell lines. These results suggest that the combination of an EGFR inhibitor and cisplatin may be useful as a rational strategy for the treatment of patients with oral cancer with acquired cisplatin resistance