34 research outputs found
Systematic design for trait introgression projects
We demonstrate an innovative approach for designing Trait Introgression (TI) projects based on optimization principles from Operations Research. If the designs of TI projects are based on clear and measurable objectives, they can be translated into mathematical models with decision variables and constraints that can be translated into Pareto optimality plots associated with any arbitrary selection strategy. The Pareto plots can be used to make rational decisions concerning the trade-offs between maximizing the probability of success while minimizing costs and time. The systematic rigor associated with a cost, time and probability of success (CTP) framework is well suited to designing TI projects that require dynamic decision making. The CTP framework also revealed that previously identified ‘best’ strategies can be improved to be at least twice as effective without increasing time or expenses
Measuring individual differences in decision biases: methodological considerations
BACKGROUND: Individual differences in people’s susceptibility
to heuristics and biases (HB) are often measured by multiple-
bias questionnaires consisting of one or a few items for each
bias. This research approach relies on the assumptions that
(1) different versions of a decision bias task measure are
interchangeable as they measure the same cognitive failure;
and (2) that some combination of these tasks measures the
same underlying construct. Based on these assumptions, in
Study 1 we developed two versions of a new decision bias
survey for which we modified 13 HB tasks to increase their
comparability, construct validity, and the participants’
motivation. The analysis of the responses (N = 1279) showed
weak internal consistency within the surveys and a great
level of discrepancy between the extracted patterns of the
underlying factors. To explore these inconsistencies, in
Study 2 we used three original examples of HB tasks for each
of seven biases. We created three decision bias surveys by
allocating one version of each HB task to each survey. The
participants’ responses (N = 527) showed a similar pattern as
in Study 1, questioning the assumption that the different
examples of the HB tasks are interchangeable and that they
measure the same underlying construct. These results
emphasize the need to understand the domain-specificity of
cognitive biases as well as the effect of the wording of the
cover story and the response mode on bias susceptibility
before employing them in multiple-bias questionnaires
What Makes Terrorists Tick
Max Abrahms’s article “What Terrorists Really Want: Terrorist Motives and
Counterterrorism Strategy” is a welcome critique of the many points taken for granted
by rational choice interpretations of terrorist group behavior.1 His systematic review of
the observable implications of rational choice perspectives on terrorism reveals some
of the important shortfalls in the current literature. Abrahms overreaches, however, in
rejecting strategic models of terrorism without providing ample empirical evidence or
qualifications to his claims