Obstacles and benefits of the implementation of a reduced-rank smoother with a high resolution model of the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Most of oceanographic operational centers use three-dimensional data assimilation schemes to produce reanalyses. We investigate here the benefits of a smoother, i.e. a four-dimensional formulation of statistical assimilation. A square-root sequential smoother is implemented with a tropical Atlantic Ocean circulation model. A simple twin experiment is performed to investigate its benefits, compared to its corresponding filter. Despite model's non-linearities and the various approximations used for its implementation, the smoother leads to a better estimation of the ocean state, both on statistical (i.e. mean error level) and dynamical points of view, as expected from linear theory. Smoothed states are more in phase with the dynamics of the reference state, an aspect that is nicely illustrated with the chaotic dynamics of the North Brazil Current rings. We also show that the smoother efficiency is strongly related to the filter configuration. One of the main obstacles to implement the smoother is then to accurately estimate the error covariances of the filter. Considering this, benefits of the smoother are also investigated with a configuration close to situations that can be managed by operational center systems, where covariances matrices are fixed (optimal interpolation). We define here a simplified smoother scheme, called half-fixed basis smoother, that could be implemented with current reanalysis schemes. Its main assumption is to neglect the propagation of the error covariances matrix, what leads to strongly reduce the cost of assimilation. Results illustrate the ability of this smoother to provide a solution more consistent with the dynamics, compared to the filter. The smoother is also able to produce analyses independently of the observation frequency, so the smoothed solution appears more continuous in time, especially in case of a low frenquency observation network

A twist-grain boundary (TGB) phase in aqueous solutions of the DNA tetramer GTAC

We report the observation of a Twist Grain Boundary (TGB) phase of DNA, a striking motif of three dimensional (3D) equilibrium self-assembly of the DNA tetramer 5'-GTAC-3', a base sequence that is self-complimentary, pairing to form 4-base long, blunt-end Watson/Crick (WC) duplexes. Hydrophobic blunt ends and liquid crystal ordering enable these short duplexes to aggregate into long-DNA-like columns, even though the double helix has a break every 4 bases. A further step assembles these columns into monolayer sheets in which the columns are mutually parallel, and, finally, these sheets stack into lamellar arrays in which the column axis of each layer rotates in helical fashion, through a 60 degree angle with each passage to the next layer. This reorientation in a left-handed TGB helix enables each 2nm diameter WC column to be parallel to, and to partially enter, the major grooves of its neighbors.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figure

Assessing the impact of very large volcanic eruptions on the risk of extreme climate events

Very large volcanic eruptions have substantial impacts on the climate, causing global cooling and major changes to the hydrological cycle. While most studies have focused on changes to mean climate, here we use a large ensemble to assess the impact on extreme climate for three years following tropical and extratropical eruptions of different sulfur emission strength. We focus on the impact of an extremely large eruption, injecting 40 Tg sulfur into the stratosphere, which could be expected to occur approximately twice a millennium. Our findings show that the eruption would have a profound effect on large areas of the globe, resulting in extremely rare drought events that under normal circumstances would occur once every century becoming very likely. Several regions such as West Africa, South and East Asia and the Maritime continent are particularly affected with the expected climate shifting well outside the usual range, by up to five standard deviations. These results have important consequences as they indicate that a severe drought in multiple breadbasket regions should be expected following a large eruption. The risk of heavy rainfall tends to decrease over the same regions but by a reduced amount, heatwaves become extremely rare, however the chance of extreme Winter cold surges do not increase by a corresponding amount, since widespread parts of the Northern Hemisphere display a winter warming. Our results show that the location of the eruption is crucial for the change in extremes, with overall changes larger for a Northern Hemisphere eruption than a tropical and Southern Hemisphere eruption, although there is a regional dependency. Simulations of different eruptions with similar forcing distributions but with different sizes are consistent with a linear relationship, however for smaller eruptions the internal variability tends to become dominant and the effect on extreme climate less detectable

Resolving the backbone tilt of crystalline poly(3-hexylthiophene) with resonant tender X-ray diffraction

The way in which conjugated polymers pack in the solid state strongly affects the performance of polymer-based optoelectronic devices. However, even for the most crystalline conjugated polymers the precise packing of chains within the unit cell is not well established. Here we show that by performing resonant X-ray diffraction experiments at the sulfur K-edge we are able to resolve the tilting of the planar backbones of crystalline poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) within the unit cell. This approach exploits the anisotropic nature of the X-ray optical properties of conjugated polymers, enabling us to discern between different proposed crystal structures. By comparing our data with simulations based on different orientations, a tilting of the planar conjugated backbone with respect to the side chain stacking direction of 30 ± 5° is determined

Individual and environmental determinants associated with longer times to access pediatric rheumatology centers for patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis, a JIR cohort study.

Despite guidelines, poor access to appropriate care for juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients remains a global issue. Prompt referral to a pediatric rheumatology (PR) center and effective care is known to be critical for changing the natural history of the disease and improving long-term prognosis. This project assesses socio-economic factors of delayed referral to a pediatric rheumatologist (PRst) for JIA patients in France and Switzerland within the Juvenile Inflammatory Rheumatism (JIR) Cohort. All patients diagnosed with JIA, presenting at one center of the JIRcohort in France or Switzerland with additional data on referral pathway were included. Patient characteristics at first visit to the PR center, dates of visits to healthcare providers during referral, and parent characteristics were extracted from the JIRcohort database. Two hundred fifty children were included. The overall median time to first PR assessment was 2.4 months [1.3; 6.9] and ranged widely across the JIA subtypes, from 1.4 months [0.6; 3.8] for children with systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (sJIA) to 5.3 months [2.0; 19.1] for children with enthesitis-related arthritis (ERA). A diagnosis of ERA and an appointment with an orthopedist during the referral pathway were significantly associated with a longer time before the first PR visit (hazard ratio HR 0.50 [95% CI: 0.29; 0.84]) and HR 0.68 [95% CI: 0.49; 0.93], respectively) in multivariable analysis. Having a mother with a post-graduate educational attainment level was tendentially associated with a shorter time before the first PR visit, (HR 1.32 [95% CI: 0.99; 1.78]). Time to first PRst visit was most often short compared to other studies and close to the British recommendations. However, this time remained too long for many patients. We observed no social inequities in access to a PRst, but we show the need to improve effective pathway and access to a PR center for JIA patients