The Third California: The Golden State's New Frontier

Documents the new movement of people and jobs to the interior region of the state, and discusses the broad implications of these changes for California as well as other Western states

Cloud altitude determination from infrared spectral radiances

The CO2 slicing method is generally recognized as the most accurate means of inferring cloud altitude from passive infrared radiance observations. The method is applicable to semi-transparent and broken clouds. During the cirrus FIRE and COHMEX field experiments, CO2 channel radiance data suitable for cloud altitude specification were achieved from moderate spectral resolution satellite sounders (NOAA-TOVS and GOES-VAS) and from a High spectral resolution Interferometer Spectrometer (HIS) flown on the NASA U2/ER2 aircraft. Also aboard the ER2 was a down-looking active lidar unit capable of providing cloud top pressure verifications with high accuracy. A third instrument, the Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) provided 50 meter resolution infrared window data which is used wtih radiosonde data to verify the heights of middle and low level clouds. Comparisons of lidar and MAMS/radiosonde ground truth cloud heights are made with those determined from: high resolution (0.5/cm) HIS spectra, HIS spectra degraded to the moderate resolution (15/cm) of the VAS/TOVS instruments, and spectrally averaged HIS radiances for individual pairs of VAS spectral channels. The results show that the best results are achieved from high resolution spectra; the RMS difference with the ground truth is 23 mb. The RMS differences between the infrared radiance determination and ground truth increase by 35 percent when the spectral resolution is degraded to the moderate spectral resolution of the VAS/TOVS instruments and by 52 to 183 percent, depending upon channel combinations, when only two spectral channels at VAS/TOVS spectral resolution are used

Optical properties and bioavailability of dissolved organic matter along a flow-path continuum from soil pore waters to the Kolyma River mainstem, East Siberia

The Kolyma River in northeast Siberia is among the six largest Arctic rivers and drains a region underlain by vast deposits of Holocene-aged peat and Pleistocene-aged loess known as yedoma, most of which is currently stored in ice-rich permafrost throughout the region. These peat and yedoma deposits are important sources of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to inland waters that in turn play a significant role in the transport and ultimate remineralization of organic carbon to CO2 and CH4 along the terrestrial flow-path continuum. The turnover and fate of terrigenous DOM during offshore transport largely depends upon the composition and amount of carbon released to inland and coastal waters. Here, we measured the ultraviolet-visible optical properties of chromophoric DOM (CDOM) from a geographically extensive collection of waters spanning soil pore waters, streams, rivers, and the Kolyma River mainstem throughout a  ∼  250 km transect of the northern Kolyma River basin. During the period of study, CDOM absorption coefficients were found to be robust proxies for the concentration of DOM, whereas additional CDOM parameters such as spectral slopes (S) were found to be useful indicators of DOM quality along the flow path. In particular, the spectral slope ratio (SR) of CDOM demonstrated statistically significant differences between all four water types and tracked changes in the concentration of bioavailable DOC, suggesting that this parameter may be suitable for clearly discriminating shifts in organic matter characteristics among water types along the full flow-path continuum across this landscape. However, despite our observations of downstream shifts in DOM composition, we found a relatively constant proportion of DOC that was bioavailable ( ∼  3–6 % of total DOC) regardless of relative water residence time along the flow path. This may be a consequence of two potential scenarios allowing for continual processing of organic material within the system, namely (a) aquatic microorganisms are acclimating to a downstream shift in DOM composition and/or (b) photodegradation is continually generating labile DOM for continued microbial processing of DOM along the flow-path continuum. Without such processes, we would otherwise expect to see a declining fraction of bioavailable DOC downstream with increasing residence time of water in the system. With ongoing and future permafrost degradation, peat and yedoma deposits throughout the northeast Siberian region will become more hydrologically active, providing greater amounts of DOM to fluvial networks and ultimately to the Arctic Ocean. The ability to rapidly and comprehensively monitor shifts in the quantity and quality of DOM across the landscape is therefore critical for understanding potential future feedbacks within the Arctic carbon cycle

Evaluation of Disability Employment Policy Demonstration Programs

[Excerpt] Since 2001, the Office of Disability Employment Policy (ODEP) has awarded more than $65 million in grants, contracts, and cooperative agreements. Of this, more than$38 million has been awarded to projects under the ODEP Demonstration Program, with about 2 percent directed toward an independent evaluation. The ODEP Demonstration Program consists of a variety of initiatives targeted at both adults and youth with disabilities. All demonstration projects funded under these initiatives are expected to implement and evaluate methods for building the capacity of the workforce development system to better serve people with disabilities. ODEP contracted with Westat, a private research company, to conduct an independent evaluation of its demonstration program. The purpose of the independent evaluation is to provide ODEP with data and information about system change that can be used to assist policy development, decisions, and recommendations, as well as track progress in meeting ODEP’s goals under the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA). The independent evaluation has three objectives: 1. To provide ODEP with reliable and valid indicators of program effectiveness; 2. To determine the extent to which each program priority area is effective in building workforce development system capacity; and 3. To document local, regional, and/or state systems change that supports program effectiveness. This paper summarizes the issues and accomplishments identified by the evaluation to date in the context of these three objectives

Modeling the Thermosphere as a Driven-Dissipative Thermodynamic System

Thermospheric density impacts satellite position and lifetime through atmospheric drag. More accurate specification of thermospheric temperature, a key input to current models such as the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM), can decrease model density errors. Building on Burke et al. s driven-dissipative model (2009) the arithmetic mean temperature, T1/2 , defined by Jacchia, 1977 (J77), is modeled using the magnetospheric electric field as a driver. Three methods of treating the UV contribution to T1/2 (T1/2UV) are tested. Two model parameters, the coupling and relaxation constants, are adjusted for 38 storms from 2002 - 2008 to minimize modeled T1/2 errors. Observed T1/2 values are derived from densities and heights measured by the GRACE satellite. It is found that allowing T1/2 UV to vary produces the lowest errors for 27 of 38 storms in the sample and 27 of 28 storms with decreasing UV contributions. Treating T1/2UV as a constant produces the lowest errors for 7 of 10 storms with increasing UV contributions

Employer Involvement in Office of Disability Employment (ODEP) Demonstration Programs

[Excerpt] As part of the independent evaluation of ODEP’s demonstration program being conducted by Westat, the Office of Disability Employment Policy (ODEP) asked Westat to provide in-depth analysis of three issues that were identified at site visits and in Quarterly Reports during Phase II of the evaluation. This report provides in-depth analysis on the first issue—employer involvement in adult demonstration programs

Location of Adult Children as an Attraction for Black and White Elderly Migrants in the United States

This research evaluates the location of adult children as a determinant of interstate primary migration for elderly (aged 60+) blacks and whites, over the 1985-90 period. We find that the location of adult children, as well as environmental amenities, affect the migration of both elderly blacks and whites but exert different redistribution influences on each race. Our results support the migration implications of Eugene Litwak's theory of the "modified extended family", which is considered to be more viable than the isolated nuclear family in a modern society.elderly migrants

Americas Electoral Future The Coming Generational Transformation

A report building on a previous 2018 report issued by the authors as part of the States of Change project. The 2018 report examined various future presidential election scenarios (from 2020 through 2036) that could occur due to demographic changes at the state and national level over the next several decades. This revised 2020 report updates the scenarios with new demographic projections based on the latest census data, explicitly incorporates gender into the projections and scenarios for the first time, and examines the likely evolution of generational cohorts over the next several decades.

Multivariate Regression Analysis of Gravitational Waves from Rotating Core Collapse

We present a new multivariate regression model for analysis and parameter estimation of gravitational waves observed from well but not perfectly modeled sources such as core-collapse supernovae. Our approach is based on a principal component decomposition of simulated waveform catalogs. Instead of reconstructing waveforms by direct linear combination of physically meaningless principal components, we solve via least squares for the relationship that encodes the connection between chosen physical parameters and the principal component basis. Although our approach is linear, the waveforms' parameter dependence may be non-linear. For the case of gravitational waves from rotating core collapse, we show, using statistical hypothesis testing, that our method is capable of identifying the most important physical parameters that govern waveform morphology in the presence of simulated detector noise. We also demonstrate our method's ability to predict waveforms from a principal component basis given a set of physical progenitor parameters

Hispanics and the changing racial demographics of the Intermountain West

In the past decade, Hispanics accounted for more than half of the nation’s population grains, while whites accounted for less than a fifth. The minority vote played a significant role in Obama’s victories in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. Issues such as immigration will make the Hispanic vote crucial in November. This paper examines the rising significance of Hispanics and other racial minorities in the Intermountain West electorate