10. Effect of insecticide-treated bed nets on the dynamics of multiple Plasmodium falciparum infections

The rates of acquisition and loss of individual genotypes belonging to the FC27 family of the Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface protein 2 (msp2) gene were studied in 120 children aged 5 months to 2·5 years, in a randomized controlled trial of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) in Kiberege village, Tanzania. Analysis of longitudinal changes in positivity for individual alleles in samples collected at intervals of one month indicated that the average duration of infections, allowing for undetected parasite genotypes, was 73 d in those aged <18 months and 160 d in children aged ≥18 months, consistent with a shift from acute to chronic infection with age. Overall, 51% of genotypes infecting the host were estimated to be detected by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis in any one sample of 0·5 μL of packed peripheral blood cells. In children less than 18 months old this sensitivity was 61% (SE = 6%) compared with 41% (SE = 6%) in older children. Conversely, the rate of appearance of new parasite genotypes was higher in children <18 months of age than in older children, but this partly reflected the difference in sensitivity. The overall incidence of new infections was estimated to be reduced by 17% in ITN users. There was no statistically significant difference between users and non-users in observed infection multiplicity, sensitivity, recovery rate, or estimated infection rates for individual alleles. This suggests that, in areas of high P. falciparum endemicity, ITNs have little effect on the establishment of chronic malaria infectio

Spatial Effects of the Social Marketing of Insecticide-Treated Nets on Malaria Morbidity.

Randomized controlled trials have shown that insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have an impact on both malaria morbidity and mortality. Uniformly high coverage of ITNs characterized these trials and this resulted in some protection of nearby non-users of ITNs. We have now assessed the coverage, distribution pattern and resultant spatial effects in one village in Tanzania where ITNs were distributed in a social marketing programme. The prevalence of parasitaemia, mild anaemia (Hb <11 g/dl) and moderate/severe anaemia (Hb <8 g/dl) in children under five was assessed cross-sectionally. Data on ownership of ITNs were collected and inhabitants' houses were mapped. One year after the start of the social marketing programme, 52% of the children were using a net which had been treated at least once. The ITNs were rather homogeneously distributed throughout the village at an average density of about 118 ITNs per thousand population. There was no evidence of a pattern in the distribution of parasitaemia and anaemia cases, but children living in areas of moderately high ITN coverage were about half as likely to have moderate/severe anaemia (OR 0.5, 95% CI: 0.2, 0.9) and had lower prevalence of splenomegaly, irrespective of their net use. No protective effects of coverage were found for prevalence of mild anaemia nor for parasitaemia. The use of untreated nets had neither coverage nor short distance effects. More efforts should be made to ensure high coverage in ITNs programmes to achieve maximum benefit

9. Effect of insecticide-treated bed nets on haemoglobin values, prevalence and multiplicity of infection with Plasmodium falciparum in a randomized controlled trial in Tanzania

A randomized controlled trial of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) was conducted in an area of high malaria transmission in Tanzania in order to assess the effects of ITNs on infection and anaemia. One hundred and twenty-two children, aged 5 to 24 months, were randomly allocated to 2 groups, one of which received ITNs. Outcome measures were assessed in 6 consecutive months with monthly cross-sectional surveys. These measures were haemoglobin values, Plasmodium falciparum prevalence and density, and multiplicity of infection determined by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis (PCR-RFLP) of the msp2 locus. There was a significant increase in mean heamoglobin values and a significant decrease of 16·4% in microscopically determined P. falciparum prevalence in children in the ITN group six months after the start of the trial. Both effects were more pronounced in younger children. However, no significant difference was observed in parasite density or multiplicity of infection among infected children. Comparison with PCR results indicated that microscopically subpatent parasitaemia was more frequently found in children in the ITN group. This, together with the observed similar multiplicity in the 2 groups, suggests that infections are maintained despite ITN use, owing to the chronicity of infections. This study shows that ITNs reduce the risk of anaemia in highly exposed young children. The virtually unchanged multiplicity of infection indicates that the potentially protective concomitant immunity is not compromise

Leveraging routine data in impact evaluation: Understanding data systems in primary healthcare prior to a matched cluster-randomised evaluation of adherence guidelines in South Africa

Background. An essential part of providing high-quality patient care and a means of efficiently conducting research studies relies upon high-quality routinely collected medical information.Objectives. To describe the registers, paper records and databases used in a sample of primary healthcare clinics in South Africa (SA) with the view to conduct an impact evaluation using routine data.Methods. Between October 2015 and December 2015, we collected information on the presence, quality and completeness of registers, clinical stationery and databases at 24 public health facilities in SA. We describe each register and type of clinical stationery we encountered, their primary uses, and the quality of completion. We also mapped the ideal flow of data through a site to better understand how its data collection works.Results. We identified 13 registers (9 standard, 4 non-standard), 5 types of stationery and 4 databases as sources of medical information within a site. Not all clinics used all the standardised registers, and in those that did, registers were kept in various degrees of completeness: a common problem was inconsistent recording of folder numbers. The quality of patient stationery was generally high, with only the chronic patient record being considered of varied quality. The TIER.Net database had high-quality information on key variables, but national identification (ID) number was incompletely captured (42% complete). Very few evaluation sites used electronic data collection systems for conditions other than HIV/AIDS.Conclusion. Registers, databases and clinical stationery were not implemented or completed consistently across the 24 evaluation sites. For those considering using routinely collected data for research and evaluation purposes, we would recommend a thorough review of clinic data collection systems for both quality and completeness before considering them to be a reliable data source

4. Age dependence of the multiplicity of Plasmodium falciparum infections and of other malariological indices in an area of high endemicity

The relationship between age and various malariological indices in the Kilombero valley of Tanzania were examined by compiling data from 6 different community studies carried out between 1989 and 1996. The rate of acquisition of Plasmodium falciparum infection was highest in children 1-5 years of age, while recovery rates were lowest between the first birthday and early adolescence. As a result, peak prevalence was reached in 3-5 years old children. However, the prevalence of clinical malaria (estimated from the excess risk of axillary temperatures ≥37·5 °C attributable to parasitaemia) was highest in children under one year of age. The peak in multiplicity of infection (identified by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism of the msp2 locus) occurred in 3-7 years old children. There was a significant correlation between parasite density and multiplicity of infection in infants and young children (1-2 years of age) but not in older individual

Using allocative efficiency analysis to inform health benefits package design for progressing towards Universal Health Coverage: Proof-of-concept studies in countries seeking decision support

Background: Countries are increasingly defining health benefits packages (HBPs) as a way of progressing towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Resources for health are commonly constrained, so it is imperative to allocate funds as efficiently as possible. We conducted allocative efficiency analyses using the Health Interventions Prioritization tool (HIPtool) to estimate the cost and impact of potential HBPs in three countries. These analyses explore the usefulness of allocative efficiency analysis and HIPtool in particular, in contributing to priority setting discussions. / Methods and findings: HIPtool is an open-access and open-source allocative efficiency modelling tool. It is preloaded with publicly available data, including data on the 218 cost-effective interventions comprising the Essential UHC package identified in the 3rd Edition of Disease Control Priorities, and global burden of disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. For these analyses, the data were adapted to the health systems of Armenia, Côte d’Ivoire and Zimbabwe. Local data replaced global data where possible. Optimized resource allocations were then estimated using the optimization algorithm. In Armenia, optimized spending on UHC interventions could avert 26% more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), but even highly cost-effective interventions are not funded without an increase in the current health budget. In Côte d’Ivoire, surgical interventions, maternal and child health and health promotion interventions are scaled up under optimized spending with an estimated 22% increase in DALYs averted–mostly at the primary care level. In Zimbabwe, the estimated gain was even higher at 49% of additional DALYs averted through optimized spending. / Conclusions: HIPtool applications can assist discussions around spending prioritization, HBP design and primary health care transformation. The analyses provided actionable policy recommendations regarding spending allocations across specific delivery platforms, disease programs and interventions. Resource constraints exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic increase the need for formal planning of resource allocation to maximize health benefits

An Estimation of the Entomological Inoculation Rate for Ifakara: A Semi-Urban Area in a Region of Intense Malaria Transmission in Tanzania.

An entomological study on vectors of malaria and their relative contribution to Plasmodium falciparum transmission in the semi-urban area of Ifakara, south-eastern Tanzania, was conducted. A total of 32 houses were randomly sampled from the area and light trap catches (LTC) performed in one room in each house every 2 weeks for 1 year. A total of 147 448 mosquitoes were caught from 789 LTC; 26 134 Anopheles gambiae s.l., 615 A. funestus, 718 other anophelines and 119 981 culicines. More than 60% of the total A. gambiae s.l. were found in five (0.6%) LTCs, with a maximum of 5889 caught in a single trap. Of 505 A. gambiae s.l. speciated by polymerase chain reaction, 91.5% were found to be A. arabiensis. Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests were performed on 10 108 anopheles mosquitoes and 39 (0.38%) were positive. Entomological inoculation rate (EIR) estimates were generated using a standard method and an alternative method that allows the calculation of confidence intervals based on a negative binomial distribution of sporozoite positive mosquitoes. Overall EIR estimates were similar; 31 vs. 29 [95% confidence interval (CI): 19, 44] infectious bites per annum, respectively. The EIR ranged from 4 (95% CI: 1, 17) in the cool season to 108 (95% CI: 69, 170) in the wet season and from 54 (95% CI: 30, 97) in the east of the town to 15 (95% CI: 8, 30) in the town centre. These estimates show large variations over short distances in time and space. They are all markedly lower than those reported from nearby rural areas and for other parts of Tanzania

Comparative population structure of <i>Plasmodium malariae</i> and <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> under different transmission settings in Malawi

&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; Described here is the first population genetic study of Plasmodium malariae, the causative agent of quartan malaria. Although not as deadly as Plasmodium falciparum, P. malariae is more common than previously thought, and is frequently in sympatry and co-infection with P. falciparum, making its study increasingly important. This study compares the population parameters of the two species in two districts of Malawi with different malaria transmission patterns - one seasonal, one perennial - to explore the effects of transmission on population structures. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods:&lt;/b&gt; Six species-specific microsatellite markers were used to analyse 257 P. malariae samples and 257 P. falciparum samples matched for age, gender and village of residence. Allele sizes were scored to within 2 bp for each locus and haplotypes were constructed from dominant alleles in multiple infections. Analysis of multiplicity of infection (MOI), population differentiation, clustering of haplotypes and linkage disequilibrium was performed for both species. Regression analyses were used to determine association of MOI measurements with clinical malaria parameters. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; Multiple-genotype infections within each species were common in both districts, accounting for 86.0% of P. falciparum and 73.2% of P. malariae infections and did not differ significantly with transmission setting. Mean MOI of P. falciparum was increased under perennial transmission compared with seasonal (3.14 vs 2.59, p = 0.008) and was greater in children compared with adults. In contrast, P. malariae mean MOI was similar between transmission settings (2.12 vs 2.11) and there was no difference between children and adults. Population differentiation showed no significant differences between villages or districts for either species. There was no evidence of geographical clustering of haplotypes. Linkage disequilibrium amongst loci was found only for P. falciparum samples from the seasonal transmission setting. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/b&gt; The extent of similarity between P. falciparum and P. malariae population structure described by the high level of multiple infection, the lack of significant population differentiation or haplotype clustering and lack of linkage disequilibrium is surprising given the differences in the biological features of these species that suggest a reduced potential for out-crossing and transmission in P. malariae. The absence of a rise in P. malariae MOI with increased transmission or a reduction in MOI with age could be explained by differences in the duration of infection or degree of immunity compared to P. falciparum

Optima TB: A tool to help optimally allocate tuberculosis spending.

Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design. This paper outlines the Optima TB framework and how it was applied in Belarus, an upper-middle income country in Eastern Europe with a relatively high burden of TB. Optima TB is a population-based disease transmission model, with programmatic cost functions and an optimisation algorithm. Modelled populations include age-differentiated general populations and higher-risk populations such as people living with HIV. Populations and prospective interventions are defined in consultation with local stakeholders. In partnership with the latter, demographic, epidemiological, programmatic, as well as cost and spending data for these populations and interventions are then collated. An optimisation analysis of TB spending was conducted in Belarus, using program objectives and constraints defined in collaboration with local stakeholders, which included experts, decision makers, funders and organisations involved in service delivery, support and technical assistance. These analyses show that it is possible to improve health impact by redistributing current TB spending in Belarus. Specifically, shifting funding from inpatient- to outpatient-focused care models, and from mass screening to active case finding strategies, could reduce TB prevalence and mortality by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035. In addition, an optimised allocation of TB spending could lead to a reduction in drug-resistant TB infections by 40% over this period. This would support progress towards national TB targets without additional financial resources. The case study in Belarus demonstrates how reallocations of spending across existing and new interventions could have a substantial impact on TB outcomes. This highlights the potential for Optima TB and similar modelling tools to support evidence-based priority setting

How should HIV resources be allocated? Lessons learnt from applying Optima HIV in 23 countries.

INTRODUCTION: With limited funds available, meeting global health targets requires countries to both mobilize and prioritize their health spending. Within this context, countries have recognized the importance of allocating funds for HIV as efficiently as possible to maximize impact. Over the past six years, the governments of 23 countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America have used the Optima HIV tool to estimate the optimal allocation of HIV resources. METHODS: Each study commenced with a request by the national government for technical assistance in conducting an HIV allocative efficiency study using Optima HIV. Each study team validated the required data, calibrated the Optima HIV epidemic model to produce HIV epidemic projections, agreed on cost functions for interventions, and used the model to calculate the optimal allocation of available funds to best address national strategic plan targets. From a review and analysis of these 23 country studies, we extract common themes around the optimal allocation of HIV funding in different epidemiological contexts. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The optimal distribution of HIV resources depends on the amount of funding available and the characteristics of each country's epidemic, response and targets. Universally, the modelling results indicated that scaling up treatment coverage is an efficient use of resources. There is scope for efficiency gains by targeting the HIV response towards the populations and geographical regions where HIV incidence is highest. Across a range of countries, the model results indicate that a more efficient allocation of HIV resources could reduce cumulative new HIV infections by an average of 18% over the years to 2020 and 25% over the years to 2030, along with an approximately 25% reduction in deaths for both timelines. However, in most countries this would still not be sufficient to meet the targets of the national strategic plan, with modelling results indicating that budget increases of up to 185% would be required. CONCLUSIONS: Greater epidemiological impact would be possible through better targeting of existing resources, but additional resources would still be required to meet targets. Allocative efficiency models have proven valuable in improving the HIV planning and budgeting process