Calculating the potential for within-flight transmission of influenza A (H1N1)

Abstract Background Clearly air travel, by transporting infectious individuals from one geographic location to another, significantly affects the rate of spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, the possibility of within-flight transmission of H1N1 has not been evaluated; although it is known that smallpox, measles, tuberculosis, SARS and seasonal influenza can be transmitted during commercial flights. Here we present the first quantitative risk assessment to assess the potential for within-flight transmission of H1N1. Methods We model airborne transmission of infectious viral particles of H1N1 within a Boeing 747 using methodology from the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment. Results The risk of catching H1N1 will essentially be confined to passengers travelling in the same cabin as the source case. Not surprisingly, we find that the longer the flight the greater the number of infections that can be expected. We calculate that H1N1, even during long flights, poses a low to moderate within-flight transmission risk if the source case travels First Class. Specifically, 0-1 infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 1-3 during an 11 hour flight and 2-5 during a 17 hour flight. However, within-flight transmission could be significant, particularly during long flights, if the source case travels in Economy Class. Specifically, two to five infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 5-10 during an 11 hour flight and 7-17 during a 17 hour flight. If the aircraft is only partially loaded, under certain conditions more infections could occur in First Class than in Economy Class. During a 17 hour flight, a greater number of infections would occur in First Class than in Economy if the First Class Cabin is fully occupied, but Economy class is less than 30% full. Conclusions Our results provide insights into the potential utility of air travel restrictions on controlling influenza pandemics in the winter of 2009/2010. They show travel by one infectious individual, rather than causing a single outbreak of H1N1, could cause several simultaneous outbreaks. These results imply that, during a pandemic, quarantining passengers who travel in Economy on long-haul flights could potentially be an important control strategy. Notably, our results show that quarantining passengers who travel First Class would be unlikely to be an effective control strategy

Sympatric Speciation: When Is It Possible in Bacteria?

This study investigated a potential auditory illusion in duration perception induced by rhythmic temporal contexts. Listeners with or without musical training performed a duration discrimination task for a silent period in a rhythmic auditory sequence. The critical temporal interval was presented either within a perceptual group or between two perceptual groups. We report the just-noticeable difference (difference limen, DL) for temporal intervals and the point of subjective equality (PSE) derived from individual psychometric functions based on performance of a two-alternative forced choice task. In musically untrained individuals, equal temporal intervals were perceived as significantly longer when presented between perceptual groups than within a perceptual group (109.25% versus 102.5% of the standard duration). Only the perceived duration of the between-group interval was significantly longer than its objective duration. Musically trained individuals did not show this effect. However, in both musically trained and untrained individuals, the relative difference limens for discriminating the comparison interval from the standard interval were larger in the between-groups condition than in the within-group condition (7.3% vs. 5.6% of the standard duration). Thus, rhythmic grouping affected sensitivity to duration changes in all listeners, with duration differences being harder to detect at boundaries of rhythm groups than within rhythm groups. Our results show for the first time that temporal Gestalt induces auditory duration illusions in typical listeners, but that musical experts are not susceptible to this effect of rhythmic grouping.Ellison Medical FoundationSwiss National Science Foundation (PA00P1_131448/1

Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 2009 Is Associated with Severe Disease in India

Background: Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. In absence of reliable information on severity of the disease, the nations are unable to decide on the appropriate response against this disease. Methods: Based on the results of laboratory investigations, attendance in outpatient department, hospital admissions and mortality from the cases of influenza like illness from 1 August to 31 October 2009 in Pune urban agglomeration, risk of hospitalization and case fatality ratio were assessed to determine the severity of pandemic H1N1 and seasonal influenza-A infections. Results: Prevalence of pandemic H1N1 as well as seasonal-A cases were high in Pune urban agglomeration during the study period. The cases positive for pandemic H1N1 virus had significantly higher risk of hospitalization than those positive for seasonal influenza-A viruses (OR: 1.7). Of 93 influenza related deaths, 57 and 8 deaths from Pune (urban) and 27 and 1 death from Pune (rural) were from pandemic H1N1 positive and seasonal-A positive cases respectively. The case fatality ratio 0.86 % for pandemic H1N1 was significantly higher than that of seasonal-A (0.13%) and it was in category 3 of the pandemic severity index of CDC, USA. The data on the cumulative fatality of rural and urban Pune revealed that with time the epidemic is spreading to rural areas

Androgen receptor gene amplification and protein expression in hormone refractory prostate cancer

This study examined androgen receptor (AR) gene amplification and protein expression in 102 matched paired hormone sensitive and resistant tumours from 51 patients. AR gene amplification and X chromosome copy number were assessed by fluorescent in situ hybridisation, and protein expression was assessed by immunohistochemistry. All tumours were stained for PSA protein expression. Significantly more tumours exhibited AR amplification following the development of hormone resistance (20%, 10 out of 49) compared to matched hormone-sensitive tumours from the same patient (2%, one out of 48) (P = 0.0085). The level of AR expression was significantly higher in hormone- resistant tumours compared to matched hormone-sensitive tumours from the same patient (130, interquartile range, 55-167 vs 94.5 interquartile range, 55-120, P = 0.019). AR expression levels in hormone-resistant tumours with and without AR amplification were not significantly different. However, an increase in AR expression was seen with the development of AR amplification in paired tumours. The rate of AR gene amplification and/or an increase in AR protein expression during androgen resistant is too low to wholly explain the development of androgen resistance. Alternative mechanisms for modulating the function of the AR, or other signalling pathways, must be considered as key factors in the development of hormone-resistant prostate

The Impact of Case Diagnosis Coverage and Diagnosis Delays on the Effectiveness of Antiviral Strategies in Mitigating Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1 2009

BACKGROUND: Neuraminidase inhibitors were used to reduce the transmission of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 at the early stages of the 2009/2010 pandemic. Policies for diagnosis of influenza for the purposes of antiviral intervention differed markedly between and within countries, leading to differences in the timing and scale of antiviral usage. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The impact of the percentage of symptomatic infected individuals who were diagnosed, and of delays to diagnosis, for three antiviral intervention strategies (each with and without school closure) were determined using a simulation model of an Australian community. Epidemic characteristics were based on actual data from the A/H1N1 2009 pandemic including reproduction number, serial interval and age-specific infection rate profile. In the absence of intervention an illness attack rate (AR) of 24.5% was determined from an estimated R(0) of 1.5; this was reduced to 21%, 16.5% or 13% by treatment-only, treatment plus household prophylaxis, or treatment plus household plus extended prophylaxis antiviral interventions respectively, assuming that diagnosis occurred 24 hours after symptoms arose and that 50% of symptomatic cases were diagnosed. If diagnosis occurred without delay, ARs decreased to 17%, 12.2% or 8.8% respectively. If 90% of symptomatic cases were diagnosed (with a 24 hour delay), ARs decreased to 17.8%, 11.1% and 7.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The ability to rapidly diagnose symptomatic cases and to diagnose a high proportion of cases was shown to improve the effectiveness of all three antiviral strategies. For epidemics with R(0)< = 1.5 our results suggest that when the case diagnosis coverage exceeds ∼70% the size of the antiviral stockpile required to implement the extended prophylactic strategy decreases. The addition of at least four weeks of school closure was found to further reduce cumulative and peak attack rates and the size of the required antiviral stockpile

Protocol of a randomized controlled trial of the Tobacco Tactics website for operating engineers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Recent research indicates that 35 percent of blue-collar workers in the US currently smoke while only 20 percent of white-collar workers smoke. Over the last year, we have been working with heavy equipment operators, specifically the Local 324 Training Center of the International Union of Operating Engineers, to study the epidemiology of smoking, which is 29% compared to 21% among the general population. For the current study funded by the National Cancer Institute (1R21CA152247-01A1), we have developed the Tobacco Tactics website which will be compared to the state supported 1-800-QUIT-NOW telephone line. Outcome evaluation will compare those randomized to the Tobacco Tactics web-based intervention to those randomized to the 1-800-QUIT-NOW control condition on: a) 30-day and 6-month quit rates; b) cotinine levels; c) cigarettes smoked/day; d) number of quit attempts; and e) nicotine addiction. Process evaluation will compare the two groups on the: a) contacts with intervention; b) medications used; c) helpfulness of the nurse/coach; and d) willingness to recommend the intervention to others.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This will be a randomized controlled trial (N = 184). Both interventions will be offered during regularly scheduled safety training at Local 324 Training Center of the International Union of Operating Engineers and both will include optional provision of over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy and the same number of telephone contacts. However, the Tobacco Tactics website has graphics tailored to Operating Engineers, tailored cessation feedback from the website, and follow up nurse counseling offered by multimedia options including phone and/or email, and/or e-community. Primary Analysis of Aim 1 will be conducted by using logistic regression to compare smoking habits (e.g., quit rates) of those in the intervention arm to those in the control arm. Primary analyses for Aim 2 will compare process measures (e.g., medications used) between the two groups by linear, logistic, and Poisson regression.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Dissemination of an efficacious work-site, web-based smoking cessation intervention has the potential to substantially impact cancer rates among this population. Based on the outcome of this smaller study, wider scale testing in conjunction with the International Environment Technology Testing Center which services Operating Engineers across North America (including US, Mexico, and Canada) will be conducted.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT01124110</p

Multi-agent modeling of the South Korean avian influenza epidemic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) outbreaks have been reported over the past decade. South Korea recently faced AI outbreaks whose economic impact was estimated to be 6.3 billion dollars, equivalent to nearly 50% of the profit generated by the poultry-related industries in 2008. In addition, AI is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. Several studies show that a stochastic simulation model can be used to plan an efficient containment strategy on an emerging influenza. Efficient control of AI outbreaks based on such simulation studies could be an important strategy in minimizing its adverse economic and public health impacts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We constructed a spatio-temporal multi-agent model of chickens and ducks in poultry farms in South Korea. The spatial domain, comprised of 76 (37.5 km × 37.5 km) unit squares, approximated the size and scale of South Korea. In this spatial domain, we introduced 3,039 poultry flocks (corresponding to 2,231 flocks of chickens and 808 flocks of ducks) whose spatial distribution was proportional to the number of birds in each province. The model parameterizes the properties and dynamic behaviors of birds in poultry farms and quarantine plans and included infection probability, incubation period, interactions among birds, and quarantine region.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We conducted sensitivity analysis for the different parameters in the model. Our study shows that the quarantine plan with well-chosen values of parameters is critical for minimize loss of poultry flocks in an AI outbreak. Specifically, the aggressive culling plan of infected poultry farms over 18.75 km radius range is unlikely to be effective, resulting in higher fractions of unnecessarily culled poultry flocks and the weak culling plan is also unlikely to be effective, resulting in higher fractions of infected poultry flocks.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results show that a prepared response with targeted quarantine protocols would have a high probability of containing the disease. The containment plan with an aggressive culling plan is not necessarily efficient, causing a higher fraction of unnecessarily culled poultry farms. Instead, it is necessary to balance culling with other important factors involved in AI spreading. Better estimations for the containment of AI spreading with this model offer the potential to reduce the loss of poultry and minimize economic impact on the poultry industry.</p

School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences

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Seroepidemiology of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Pune, India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In India, Pune was one of the badly affected cities during the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic. We undertook serosurveys among the risk groups and general population to determine the extent of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infections.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Pre-pandemic sera from the archives, collected during January 2005 to March 2009, were assayed for the determination of baseline seropositivity. Serosurveys were undertaken among the risk groups such as hospital staff, general practitioners, school children and staff and general population between 15^thAugust and 11^thDecember 2009. In addition, the PCR-confirmed pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 cases and their household contacts were also investigated. Haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assays were performed using turkey red blood cells employing standard protocols. A titre of ≥1:40 was considered seropositive.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Only 2 (0.9%) of the 222 pre-pandemic sera were positive. The test-retest reliability of HI assay in 101 sera was 98% for pandemic H1N1, 93.1% for seasonal H1N1 and 94% for seasonal H3N2. The sera from 48 (73.8%) of 65 PCR-confirmed pandemic H1N1 cases in 2009 were positive. Seropositivity among general practitioners increased from 4.9% in August to 9.4% in November and 15.1% in December. Among hospital staff, seropositivity increased from 2.8% in August to 12% in November. Seropositivity among the schools increased from 2% in August to 10.7% in September. The seropositivity among students (25%) was higher than the school staff in September. In a general population survey in October 2009, seropositivity was higher in children (9.1%) than adults (4.3%). The 15-19 years age group showed the highest seropositivity of 20.3%. Seropositivity of seasonal H3N2 (55.3%) and H1N1 (26.4%) was higher than pandemic H1N1 (5.7%) (n = 2328). In households of 74 PCR-confirmed pandemic H1N1 cases, 25.6% contacts were seropositive. Almost 90% pandemic H1N1 infections were asymptomatic or mild. Considering a titre cut off of 1:10, seropositivity was 1.5-3 times as compared to 1:40.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infection was widespread in all sections of community. However, infection was significantly higher in school children and general practitioners. Hospital staff had the lowest infections suggesting the efficacy of infection-control measures.</p