Diagnostic work-up of patients presenting in primary care with lower abdominal symptoms:which faecal test and triage strategy should be used?

Bowel endoscopy referrals from primary care have increased steadily over recent years. However, most patients do not have significant colorectal disease (SCD). Therefore, strategies to select those who would benefit most from endoscopy are of current interest. A recent study developed a multivariable diagnostic model for SCD with routine clinical information, extended with quantitative faecal calprotectin (f-C) point-of-care (POC) testing and/or qualitative POC faecal immunochemical test (FIT) for haemoglobin (f-Hb) results. This study used POC tests for both f-C and f-Hb; however, POC tests have many disadvantages and there are several reasons why quantitative measurements of f-Hb are advantageous. Quantitative faecal immunochemical tests have been used very successfully in triage of patients presenting in primary care as a rule-out test. Studies have compared f-C and f-Hb in this clinical context and consider that f-C is not required in diagnosis. A single quantitative f-Hb result, without any clinical information, could be sufficient to decide whom to refer for endoscopy and, because of the significant overlap of symptoms in those with and without SCD, could be the primary investigation performed. Please see related article: http://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-016-0684-5

Spatial Effects of the Social Marketing of Insecticide-Treated Nets on Malaria Morbidity.

Randomized controlled trials have shown that insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have an impact on both malaria morbidity and mortality. Uniformly high coverage of ITNs characterized these trials and this resulted in some protection of nearby non-users of ITNs. We have now assessed the coverage, distribution pattern and resultant spatial effects in one village in Tanzania where ITNs were distributed in a social marketing programme. The prevalence of parasitaemia, mild anaemia (Hb <11 g/dl) and moderate/severe anaemia (Hb <8 g/dl) in children under five was assessed cross-sectionally. Data on ownership of ITNs were collected and inhabitants' houses were mapped. One year after the start of the social marketing programme, 52% of the children were using a net which had been treated at least once. The ITNs were rather homogeneously distributed throughout the village at an average density of about 118 ITNs per thousand population. There was no evidence of a pattern in the distribution of parasitaemia and anaemia cases, but children living in areas of moderately high ITN coverage were about half as likely to have moderate/severe anaemia (OR 0.5, 95% CI: 0.2, 0.9) and had lower prevalence of splenomegaly, irrespective of their net use. No protective effects of coverage were found for prevalence of mild anaemia nor for parasitaemia. The use of untreated nets had neither coverage nor short distance effects. More efforts should be made to ensure high coverage in ITNs programmes to achieve maximum benefit

The association between muscular power from childhood to adulthood and adult measures of glucose homeostasis

This study aimed to assess whether the longitudinal association between childhood muscular fitness and adult measures of glucose homeostasis persist despite changes in muscular fitness across the life course. This prospective longitudinal study included 586 participants who had their muscular power (standing long jump distance), cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), and waist circumference measured as children (aged 9, 12, 15 years) and again 20 years later as adults. In adulthood, these participants also provided a fasting blood sample which was tested for glucose and insulin. Glucose homeostasis measures including insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR) and beta cell function (HOMA2-β) were estimated. Child and adult muscular power levels were separated into thirds, and tracking groups (persistently low, decreasing, persistently moderate, increasing, and persistently high) were created. Sex-stratified multivariable linear regression models were used to examine the association between muscular power tracking groups and adult measures of glucose homeostasis. Compared with males with persistently high muscular power, males with increasing and persistently low muscular power had higher fasting insulin (increasing: β = 1.12 mU/L, P = .04; persistently low: β = 2.12 mU/L, P = .001) and HOMA2-β (increasing: β = 8.50%, P = .03; persistently low: β = 11.27%, P = .01) independent of CRF and males with persistently low muscular power had greater fasting insulin (β = 1.22 mU/L, P = .02) and HOMA2-IR (β = 0.14, P = .02) independent of waist circumference. Non-significant associations were present for females. For males, maintaining persistently high muscular power between childhood and adulthood could lead to a healthier adult glucose homeostasis profile

The association between grip strength measured in childhood, young- and mid-adulthood and prediabetes or type 2 diabetes in mid-adulthood

Background: Although low child and adult grip strength is associated with adverse cardiometabolic health, how grip strength across the life course associates with type 2 diabetes is unknown. This study identified the relative contribution of grip strength measured at specific life stages (childhood, young adulthood, mid-adulthood) with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes in mid-adulthood. Methods: Between 1985 and 2019, 263 participants had their grip strength measured using an isometric dynamometer in childhood (9-15 years), young adulthood (28-36 years) and mid-adulthood (38-49 years). In mid-adulthood, a fasting blood sample was collected and tested for glucose and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c). Participants were categorized as having prediabetes or type 2 diabetes if fasting glucose levels were ≥ 5.6 mmol or if HbA1c levels were ≥ 5.7% (≥ 39 mmol/mol). A Bayesian relevant life course exposure model examined the association between lifelong grip strength and prediabetes or type 2 diabetes. Results: Grip strength at each time point was equally associated with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes in mid-adulthood (childhood: 37%, young adulthood: 36%, mid-adulthood: 28%). A one standard deviation increase in cumulative grip strength was associated with 34% reduced odds of prediabetes or type 2 diabetes in mid-adulthood (OR 0.66, 95% credible interval 0.40, 0.98). Conclusions: Greater grip strength across the life course could protect against the development of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes. Strategies aimed at increasing muscular strength in childhood and maintaining behaviours to improve strength into adulthood could improve future cardiometabolic health. The Association Between Grip Strength Measured in Childhood, Young- and Mid-adulthood and Prediabetes or Type 2 Diabetes in Mid-adulthood

The association between muscular power from childhood to adulthood and adult measures of glucose homeostasis

This study aimed to assess whether the longitudinal association between childhood muscular fitness and adult measures of glucose homeostasis persist despite changes in muscular fitness across the life course. This prospective longitudinal study included 586 participants who had their muscular power (standing long jump distance), cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), and waist circumference measured as children (aged 9, 12, 15 years) and again 20 years later as adults. In adulthood, these participants also provided a fasting blood sample which was tested for glucose and insulin. Glucose homeostasis measures including insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR) and beta cell function (HOMA2-beta) were estimated. Child and adult muscular power levels were separated into thirds, and tracking groups (persistently low, decreasing, persistently moderate, increasing, and persistently high) were created. Sex-stratified multivariable linear regression models were used to examine the association between muscular power tracking groups and adult measures of glucose homeostasis. Compared with males with persistently high muscular power, males with increasing and persistently low muscular power had higher fasting insulin (increasing: beta = 1.12 mU/L, P = .04; persistently low: beta = 2.12 mU/L, P = .001) and HOMA2-beta (increasing: beta = 8.50%, P = .03; persistently low: beta = 11.27%, P = .01) independent of CRF and males with persistently low muscular power had greater fasting insulin (beta = 1.22 mU/L, P = .02) and HOMA2-IR (beta = 0.14, P = .02) independent of waist circumference. Non-significant associations were present for females. For males, maintaining persistently high muscular power between childhood and adulthood could lead to a healthier adult glucose homeostasis profile

Temporal trends in mode, site and stage of presentation with the introduction of colorectal cancer screening: a decade of experience from the West of Scotland

background:  Population colorectal cancer screening programmes have been introduced to reduce cancer-specific mortality through the detection of early-stage disease. The present study aimed to examine the impact of screening introduction in the West of Scotland. methods:  Data on all patients with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer between January 2003 and December 2012 were extracted from a prospectively maintained regional audit database. Changes in mode, site and stage of presentation before, during and after screening introduction were examined. results:  In a population of 2.4 million, over a 10-year period, 14 487 incident cases of colorectal cancer were noted. Of these, 7827 (54%) were males and 7727 (53%) were socioeconomically deprived. In the postscreening era, 18% were diagnosed via the screening programme. There was a reduction in both emergency presentation (20% prescreening vs 13% postscreening, P0.001) and the proportion of rectal cancers (34% prescreening vs 31% pos-screening, P0.001) over the timeframe. Within non-metastatic disease, an increase in the proportion of stage I tumours at diagnosis was noted (17% prescreening vs 28% postscreening, P0.001). conclusions:  Within non-metastatic disease, a shift towards earlier stage at diagnosis has accompanied the introduction of a national screening programme. Such a change should lead to improved outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer

Cross-sectional study of the associations between circulating vitamin D concentrations and insulin resistance in children aged 9–10 years of South Asian, black African Caribbean and white European origins

Background Lower circulating vitamin D 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations are associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk in adults, although causality remains uncertain. However, associations between 25(OH)D and type 2 diabetes risk markers in children have been little studied, particularly in ethnic minority populations. We examined whether 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with insulin resistance in children and whether lower 25(OH)D concentrations in South Asians and black African Caribbeans could contribute to their higher insulin resistance. Methods Cross-sectional study of 4650 UK primary school children aged 9–10 years of predominantly South Asian, black African Caribbean and white European ethnicity. Children had fasting blood measurements of circulating 25(OH)D metabolite concentrations, insulin and glucose. Results Lower 25(OH)D concentrations were observed in girls, South Asians and black African Caribbeans. In analyses adjusted for age, sex, month, ethnic group and school, circulating 25(OH)D was inversely associated with fasting insulin (−0.38%, 95% CI −0.49% to −0.27%), homoeostasis model assessment (HOMA) insulin resistance (−0.39%, 95% CI −0.50% to −0.28%) and fasting glucose (−0.03%, 95% CI −0.05% to –0.02%) per nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D; associations did not differ between ethnic groups. Ethnic differences in fasting insulin and HOMA insulin resistance (higher among South Asian and black African Caribbeans) were reduced by >40% after adjustment for circulating 25(OH)D concentrations. Conclusion Circulating vitamin D was inversely associated with insulin resistance in all ethnic groups; higher insulin resistance in South Asian and black African children were partly explained by their lower vitamin D levels. Whether vitamin D supplementation can reduce emerging type 2 diabetes risk needs further evaluation

Dynamical system analysis and forecasting of deformation produced by an earthquake fault

We present a method of constructing low-dimensional nonlinear models describing the main dynamical features of a discrete 2D cellular fault zone, with many degrees of freedom, embedded in a 3D elastic solid. A given fault system is characterized by a set of parameters that describe the dynamics, rheology, property disorder, and fault geometry. Depending on the location in the system parameter space we show that the coarse dynamics of the fault can be confined to an attractor whose dimension is significantly smaller than the space in which the dynamics takes place. Our strategy of system reduction is to search for a few coherent structures that dominate the dynamics and to capture the interaction between these coherent structures. The identification of the basic interacting structures is obtained by applying the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to the surface deformations fields that accompany strike-slip faulting accumulated over equal time intervals. We use a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) architecture for the identification of the system dynamics projected onto the subspace (model space) spanned by the most energetic coherent structures. The ANN is trained using a standard back-propagation algorithm to predict (map) the values of the observed model state at a future time given the observed model state at the present time. This ANN provides an approximate, large scale, dynamical model for the fault.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figure

Changes in ponderal index and body mass index across childhood and their associations with fat mass and cardiovascular risk factors at age 15

Background: Little is known about whether associations between childhood adiposity and later adverse cardiovascular health outcomes are driven by tracking of overweight from childhood to adulthood and/or by vascular and metabolic changes from childhood overweight that persist into adulthood. Our objective is to characterise associations between trajectories of adiposity across childhood and a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors measured in adolescence, and explore the extent to which these are mediated by fat mass at age 15. Methods and Findings: Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, we estimated individual trajectories of ponderal index (PI) from 0-2 years and BMI from 2-10 years using random-effects linear spline models (N = 4601). We explored associations between PI/BMI trajectories and DXA-determined total-body fat-mass and cardiovascular risk factors at 15 years (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting LDL-and HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, glucose, insulin) with and without adjustment for confounders. Changes in PI/BMI during all periods of infancy and childhood were associated with greater DXA-determined fat-mass at age 15. BMI changes in childhood, but not PI changes from 0-2 years, were associated with most cardiovascular risk factors in adolescence; associations tended to be strongest for BMI changes in later childhood (ages 8.5-10), and were largely mediated by fat mass at age 15. Conclusion: Changes in PI/BMI from 0-10 years were associated with greater fat-mass at age 15. Greater increases in BMI from age 8.5-10 years are most strongly associated with cardiovascular risk factors at age 15, with much of these associations mediated by fat-mass at this age. We found little evidence supporting previous reports that rapid PI changes in infancy are associated with future cardiovascular risk. This study suggests that associations between early overweight and subsequent adverse cardiovascular health are largely due to overweight children tending to remain overweight