3 research outputs found
Platinum Availability for Future Automotive Technologies
Platinum is an excellent catalyst,
can be used at high temperatures,
and is stable in many aggressive chemical environments. Consequently,
platinum is used in many current industrial applications, notably
automotive catalytic converters, and prospective vehicle fuel cells
are expected to rely upon it. Between 2005 and 2010, the automotive
industry used approximately 40% of mined platinum. Future automotive
industry growth and automotive sales shifts toward new technologies
could significantly alter platinum demand. The potential risks for
decreased platinum availability are evaluated, using an analysis of
platinum market characteristics that describes platinum’s geophysical
constraints, institutional efficiency, and dynamic responsiveness.
Results show that platinum demand for an automotive fleet that meets
450 ppm greenhouse gas stabilization goals would require within 10%
of historical growth rates of platinum supply before 2025. However,
such a fleet, due largely to sales growth in fuel cell vehicles, will
more strongly constrain platinum supply in the 2050 time period. While
current platinum reserves are sufficient to satisfy this increased
demand, decreasing platinum ore grade and continued concentration
of platinum supply in a single geographic area are availability risk
factors to platinum end-users
Assessing Economic Modulation of Future Critical Materials Use: The Case of Automotive-Related Platinum Group Metals
Platinum-group
metals (PGMs) are technological and economic enablers
of many industrial processes. This important role, coupled with their
limited geographic availability, has led to PGMs being labeled as
“critical materials”. Studies of future PGM flows have
focused on trends within material flows or macroeconomic indicators.
We complement the previous work by introducing a novel technoeconomic
model of substitution among PGMs within the automotive sector (the
largest user of PGMs) reflecting the rational response of firms to
changing prices. The results from the model support previous conclusions
that PGM use is likely to grow, in some cases strongly, by 2030 (approximately
45% for Pd and 5% for Pt), driven by the increasing sales of automobiles.
The model also indicates that PGM-demand growth will be significantly
influenced by the future Pt-to-Pd price ratio, with swings of Pt and
Pd demand of as much as 25% if the future price ratio shifts higher
or lower even if it stays within the historic range. Fortunately,
automotive catalysts are one of the more effectively recycled metals.
As such, with proper policy support, recycling can serve to meet some
of this growing demand
Evaluating Rare Earth Element Availability: A Case with Revolutionary Demand from Clean Technologies
The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs)
is of concern
due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable
mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation
of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the
issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis,
but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future
rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy
and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future.
However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind
turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth
magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large
and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements.
For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in
these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future
REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs