To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?

We re-assess the effect of new information contained in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on the rationality of the announcements. We find that HPR preliminary numbers are irrational estimates of the final numbers and market expectations before the announcements are also irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Based on these results we modify the conventional measure of new information entering into the market (i.e., announcement - market expectation), and incorporate final estimates and the market’s best forecast into the analysis. Results show modest statistical differences between the conventional and modified measures of surprise; however some economic differences, as large as 27 cents/cwt, emerged. We also find that, as expected, marketings information has a larger effect on short-term price changes and breedings information has a larger effect on long-term price changes.USDA announcements, HPR, rationality, new information, two-limit tobit,

To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?

We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on announcements’ rationality and alternative surprises. HPR announcements are irrational estimates of final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Using the market’s best forecast and incorporating final estimates, we modify conventional information measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price response, findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures. Regardless, the message that HPR provides new information to the market is strongly supported. On balance, marketing (breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term (long-term) price changes.HPR, new information, rationality, two-limit tobit, USDA announcements, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, C24, Q13,

Letter from Frank H. Scott to John Muir, 1910 Nov 16.

04902Frank H. Scott.We should decide as to the edition very soon as our stock is low

Letter from Frank H. Scott to John Muir, 1903 Jan 2.

THE CENTURY CO.UNION SQUARE, NEW YORKJanuary 2, 1903.John Muir, Esq,Martinez, California.My dear Mr. Muir:Mr. Johnson has from time to time shown me your letters about your proposed book on the Yosemite, and we are all of us much interested in the prospect of publishing another volume by you. Johnson, as you know,.will be absent in Europe for the next few months, and I would be glad if you would write me just how the matter is shaping itself, either in your mind or in the manuscript, and how soon you think it would be safe to arrange for its publication We are now making up our lists for the present year, and it would give us great pleasure if we could include this volume. Very sincerely yours[illegible] [03128

Got Milk? The Rapid Rise of China's Dairy Sector and Its Future Prospects

With the rapid growth in Chinaï¾’s dairy industry, a number of recent papers have addressed either the supply or the demand trends for dairy products in China. None, however, presents a systematic explanation for the recent growth in both the supply and demand for dairy products. The goal of this paper is to sketch a more comprehensive picture of Chinaï¾’s dairy sector and to assess the nature of the sectorï¾’s development in the coming decades. Drawing upon several empirical studies, we examine the trends in dairy product consumption to create a composite picture of the factors underlying the recent growth. We also empirically investigate the sources of production gains in milk supply and assess the relative importance of expanding herd size, changes in the nature of production, technological change, and improvements in efficiency to the overall growth of milk production.

Perception Of Visual Speed While Moving

During self-motion, the world normally appears stationary. In part, this may be due to reductions in visual motion signals during self-motion. In 8 experiments, the authors used magnitude estimation to characterize changes in visual speed perception as a result of biomechanical self-motion alone (treadmill walking), physical translation alone (passive transport), and both biomechanical self-motion and physical translation together (walking). Their results show that each factor alone produces subtractive reductions in visual speed but that subtraction is greatest with both factors together, approximating the sum of the 2 separately. The similarity of results for biomechanical and passive self-motion support H. B. Barlow\u27s (1990) inhibition theory of sensory correlation as a mechanism for implementing H. Wallach\u27s (1987) compensation for self-motion. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved)(journal abstract

Letter from Frank H. Scott to John Muir, 1894 May 21.

Frak H. Scott.Chas. F. Chichester. Treas.William W. Ellsworth, Secretary.May 21, 1894My dear Mr. Muir:-Your letter of the 16th is received. Please continue to direct the proofs to Mr. Abbott.I notice what you say as to illustration, and hare telegraphed you to-day to forward any photographs or material you may have for illustrating the first four chapters. When it arrives we will see what can be done. We trust you will be in position to forward immediately, as there will not be much time if we are to have the book ready for our travelers this summer. As it is as yet uncertain what, if any, illustrations we can add you will understand that we do not desire you to go to any expense or trouble in01817securing extra photographs or sketches. We infer from your letter that you already have the necessary ones on hand.Very sincerely yours[illegible]John Muir Esq.Martinez, Californi

Letter from Frank H. Scott to John Muir, 1894 Jan 4.

THE CENTURY COPUBLISHERS33 East 17th St (UNION SQUARE)NEW-YORK-NY.Frank H. Scott, Prest.Chas. F. Chichester, Treas.William W. Ellsworth, Secretary.January 4, 1894My dear Mr Muir:-We are now making up our list of book publications for the year, and hope to be able to include a volume by yourself in our autumn list. Will you kindly let us know how you are getting on with your proposed work, and how soon you will be ready for publication? Our travelers start out in June or July with sample for delivery in the autumn, so that it is necessary for us to begin the preparation of volumes very early in the year and to have them practically completed before the summer. With sincere regards, believe meVery truly yours[illegible

Letter from Frank H. Scott to John Muir, 1894 Feb 28.

Frank H. Scott, Prest.Chas. F. Chichester. Treas.Wlliam W. Ellsworth, Secretary.33: East: 17th: St. (UNION SQUARE)NEW-YORK. N. Y.February 28, 1894.My dear Mr. Muir,We have just received the inclosed letter from the Board of Education at Sacramento.We usually give permits of this sort where they do not wish to use too much material, and we consent in this case if you are willing. If their selection is from matter to be included by you in your forthcoming volume it might help its sale. Perhaps it will save time if you will write directly to the department, giving your permit or not as you may see fit, and then write and let us know what you have done.Very truly yours,[illegible]Mr. John Muir.0178