Stochastic Population Projection for Germany

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Who is afraid of capital mobility? On labor taxation and the level of public services in an open economy

This paper deals with the impact of international capital mobility on labor taxes and the size of the public sector. It employs a model of the labor market, where national trade unions arc able to set wages above the competitive level. In a closed economy, a higher labor tax raises wage demands of the unions and thus increases the distortion on the labor market. With perfect international capital mobility, competition between trade unions leads to full employment, irrespective of the labor tax rale. The distorting effect of the labor tax vanishes and governments arc able to increase the supplied quantity of public services to the first best level.Capital Mobility,Labor Taxation

Double Semion Phase in an Exactly Solvable Quantum Dimer Model on the Kagome Lattice

Quantum dimer models typically arise in various low energy theories like those of frustrated antiferromagnets. We introduce a quantum dimer model on the kagome lattice which stabilizes an alternative $\mathbb{Z}_2$ topological order, namely the so-called "double semion" order. For a particular set of parameters, the model is exactly solvable, allowing us to access the ground state as well as the excited states. We show that the double semion phase is stable over a wide range of parameters using numerical exact diagonalization. Furthermore, we propose a simple microscopic spin Hamiltonian for which the low-energy physics is described by the derived quantum dimer model.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Robert Koch, Creation, and the Specificity of Germs

Microbiology is dominated by evolution today. Just look at any text, journal article, or the topics presented at professional scientific meetings. Darwin is dominant. Microbiology is dominated by evolution today. Just look at any text, journal article, or the topics presented at professional scientific meetings. Darwin is dominant. Many argue that “nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution” (Dobzhansky 1973). But it was not always this way. In fact, a review of the major founders of microbiology has shown that they were creationists.1 We would argue that a better idea thanevolution and one of much more practical importance is the germ theory of disease, originally put forth primarily by non-Darwinian biologists (Gillen and Oliver 2009). In our previous article (Gillen and Oliver 2009), we documented these and many other creation and Christian contributions to germ theory. But only recently has it become known that another important microbiology founder, Robert Koch (Fig. 1) and his co-workers were Linnaean creationists in their classification.2 This is due, in part, to additional works of Robert Koch that were translated from German to English. The year 2010 marks the 100thanniversary of his death (died: May 27, 1910). Although Koch and other German microbiologists were fairly secular in their thinking, their acceptance of Darwinian evolution was minimal

Participation in multicriteria decision support - the case of conflicting water allocation in the Spree River basin

This discussion paper presents the Integrated Methodological Approach for participatory multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty (IMA), which emerged from the debates about participation, multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and benefit-cost analysis (BCA). It provides a framework for participatory and science-based evaluation processes with combined use of BCA and MCA to support large-scale public decisions. While IMA does not claim to realize an all-inclusive participation scheme, it offers the advantage to improve the quality of decision making through advances in competence and fairness. Its practical application with emphasis on its participatory elements is demonstrated by the case study on the water allocation conflict of the German Spree River, which involves the German capital of Berlin, an important wetland, and the needs to remediate a post-mining landscape. --Participation,Multi-criteria analysis,Cost-benefit analysis,River basin management,Integrated Assesment

Linking Rules Assessed Against European and National Legal Benchmarks - A Juridical Remedy to Mitigate Double Non-Taxation?

This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of linking rules, which were adapted as one of the alleged remedies against base erosion by the EU and the OECD. A number of issues emerge in connection with those recommended rules. This thesis will thus assess compliance of those rules against domestic and European legal benchmarks. German national law will serve as an example of domestic integration of those linking rules. Moreover, it discusses whether measures of this kind will eventually mitigate base erosion and double non- taxation and if so, what are their benefits/drawbacks in comparison to already existing juridical tools. Following an in-depth analysis of these recommendations, this thesis reveals that linking rules as proposed by the OECD will in all likelihood infringe EU law. Likewise, the new linking rule of the Parent-Subsidiary Directive bears in itself certain risk to be found to violate EU law. Furthermore, these rules do arguably disqualify as anti-avoidance measures, as they do not take account of well-established principles in this field