875 research outputs found
Bad politicians
We present a simple theory of the quality of elected officials. Quality has (at least) two dimensions: competence and honesty. Voters prefer competent and honest policymakers, so high-quality citizens have a greater chance of being elected to office. But low-quality citizens have a “comparative advantage” in pursuing elective office, because their market wages are lower than the market wages of high-quality citizens (competence), and/or because they reap higher returns from holding office (honesty). In the political equilibrium, the average quality of the elected body depends on the structure of rewards from holding public office. Under the assumption that the rewards from office are increasing in the average quality of office holders there can be multiple equilibria in quality. Under the assumption that incumbent policymakers set the rewards for future policymakers there can be path dependence in quality.Corruption
Mediation and peace
This paper applies mechanism design to conflict resolution. We determine when and how unmediated communication and mediation reduce the ex ante probability of conflict in a game with asymmetric information. Mediation improves upon unmediated communication when the intensity of conflict is high, or when asymmetric
information is significant. The mediator improves upon unmediated communication by not precisely reporting information to conflicting parties, and precisely, by not
revealing to a player with probability one that the opponent is weak. Arbitrators
who can enforce settlements are no more effective than mediators who only make
non-binding recommendations
DropIn: Making Reservoir Computing Neural Networks Robust to Missing Inputs by Dropout
The paper presents a novel, principled approach to train recurrent neural
networks from the Reservoir Computing family that are robust to missing part of
the input features at prediction time. By building on the ensembling properties
of Dropout regularization, we propose a methodology, named DropIn, which
efficiently trains a neural model as a committee machine of subnetworks, each
capable of predicting with a subset of the original input features. We discuss
the application of the DropIn methodology in the context of Reservoir Computing
models and targeting applications characterized by input sources that are
unreliable or prone to be disconnected, such as in pervasive wireless sensor
networks and ambient intelligence. We provide an experimental assessment using
real-world data from such application domains, showing how the Dropin
methodology allows to maintain predictive performances comparable to those of a
model without missing features, even when 20\%-50\% of the inputs are not
available
Adeguamento sismico di edifici esistenti in c.a. mediante controventi dissipativi
Adeguamento sismico di un edificio progettato secondo il R.D.39 mediante controventi dissipativi in acciaio
Mediation and Peace
This paper brings mechanism design to the study of conflict resolution in international relations. We determine when and how unmediated communication and mediation reduce the ex ante probability of conflict, in a simple game where conflict is due to asymmetric information. Unmediated communication helps reducing the chance of conflict as it allows conflicting parties to reveal their types and establish type-dependent transfers to avoid conflict. Mediation improves upon unmediated communication when the intensity of conflict is high, or when asymmetric information is large. The mediator improves upon unmediated communication by not precisely reporting information to conflicting parties, and precisely, by not revealing to a player with probability one that the opponent is weak. Surprisingly, in our set up, arbitrators who can enforce settlements are no more effective in reducing the probability of conflict than mediators who can only make non-binding recommendations.Mediation, War and Peace, Imperfect Information, Communication Games, Optimal Mechanism
Mediation and Peace
This paper brings mechanism design to the study of conflict resolution in international relations. We determine when and how unmediated communication and mediation reduce the ex ante probability of conflict, in a simple game where conflict is due to asymmetric information. Unmediated communication helps reducing the chance of conflict as it allows conflicting parties to reveal their types and establish type-dependent transfers to avoid conflict. Mediation improves upon unmediated communication when the intensity of conflict is high, or when asymmetric information is large. The mediator improves upon unmediated communication by not precisely reporting information to conflicting parties, and precisely, by not revealing to a player with probability one that the opponent is weak. Surprisingly, in our set up, arbitrators who can enforce settlements are no more effective in reducing the probability of conflict than mediators who can only make non-binding recommendations.Mediation, War and peace, Imperfect information, Communication games, Optimal mechanism
Mediation and Peace
This paper applies mechanism design to conict resolution. We determine when and how unmediated communication and mediation reduce the ex ante probability of conflict in a game with asymmetric information. Mediation improves upon unmediated communication when the intensity of conict is high, or when asymmetric information is significant. The mediator improves upon unmediated communication by not precisely reporting information to conflicting parties, and precisely, by not revealing to a player with probability one that the opponent is weak. Arbitrators who can enforce settlements are no more effective than mediators who only make non-binding recommendations.
Signalling, Incumbency Advantage, and Optimal Reelection Rules
Much literature on political behavior treats politicians as motivated by reelection, choosing actions to signal their types to voters. We identify two novel implications of models in which signalling incentives are important. First, because incumbents only care about clearing a reelection hurdle, signals will tend to cluster just above the threshold needed for reelection. This generates a skew distribution of signals leading to an incumbency advantage in the probability of election. Second, voters can exploit the signalling behavior of politicians by precommitting to a higher threshold for signals received. Raising the threshold discourages signalling effort by low quality politicians but encourages effort by high quality politicians, thus increasing the separation of signals and improving the selection function of an election. This precommitment has a simple institutional interpretation as a supermajority rule, requiring that incumbents exceed some fraction of votes greater than 50% to be reelected.Supermajority, incumbency advantage, signalling
The geography of interstate resource wars
We establish a theoretical and empirical framework to assess the role of resource endowments and their geographic location in interstate conflict. The main predictions of the theory are that conflict is more likely when at least one country has natural resources, when the resources in the resource-endowed country are closer to the border, and, in the case where both countries have natural resources, when the resources are located asymmetrically vis-à-vis the border. We test these predictions on a novel data set featuring oilfield distances from bilateral borders. The empirical analysis shows that the presence and location of oil are significant and quantitatively important predictors of interstate conflicts after World War II
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