FLUCTUATIONS WITHIN THE EMU COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL PERSPECTIVE

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CONSUMPTION AND INCOME SMOOTHING

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Steady state Laffer curve with the underground economy

This paper studies equilibrium effects of fiscal policy within a dynamic general equilibrium model where tax evasion and underground activities are explicitly incorporated. In particular, we show that a dynamic general equilibrium with tax evasion may give a rational justification for a variant of the Laffer curve for a plausible parameterization. In this respect, the paper also identifies the different parameterization of the model formulation with tax evasion under which a Laffer curve exist. From a revenue maximizing perspective, the key policy messages are that bringing tax payers to compliance would be better than announcing to punish them if convicted, and that an economy without problems of compliance is much more sensitive to myopic behavior.Two-sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Models, Fiscal Policy, Tax Evasion and Underground Activities.

Moonlighting Production, Tax Rates and Capital Subsidies

Informal firms play a crucial role in both developing and developed countries, and there is evidence of a larger presence of moonlighting firms over ghost firms. The former are firms that operate simultaneously in the official and unofficial sectors, whereas the ghost firms undertake their production only underground. In order to deal with this evidence, through an ad-hoc assumption we represent a specific technological advantage of moonlighting firms over ghost firms, modelled through an aggregate-capital externality. In this setting we examine the steady state effect of fiscal policies aimed to support firms, in particular investment subsidies and tax allowances, on firm size and underground production. Among the main results, a tax cut (rise), induces the moonlighting firm to engage in more (less) official production. Contrary to the presumption that subsidies may also be useful for pushing firms to operate over ground, in the presence of moonlighting technology, the incentives to improve capital stock turn out to be counterproductive in that they increase the unofficial economy overall.formal and informal sectors, capital investment, tax exemptions

Consumption and Income Smoothing

This paper presents a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which income smoothing takes place within the households (intra-temporally), and consumption smoothing takes place among the households (inter-temporally). Idiosyncratic risk sharing within the family is based on an income smoothing contract. There are two sectors in the model, the regular sector and the underground sector, and the smoothing comes from the underground sector, which is countercyclical with respect aggregate GDP. The paper shows that the simulated disaggregated consumption and income series (that are the regular and underground consumption flows) are more sensitive to exogenous changes in sector-specific productivity and tax rates than regular and underground income flows, and that this picture is reversed when the aggregate series are considered.-

The Environmental Human Development Index

Human Development Index is one of the (if not the) most widely used measure of well-being, still missing, however, an “environmental dimension” (as suggested during the Rio+20-United Nation Conference on Sustainable Development, as part of Millennium Development Goals post-2015). This paper tackles this issue and introduces an original quantitative measure, named Environmental Human Development Index. The proposed index augments the Human Development Index with the Environmental Performance Index (a complete indicator of environmental quality of countries and a benchmark of policy goals achievement). The paper eventually simulates a country ranking using the new inde

Capital Subsidies and Underground Production

In this paper we investigate the effects of different fiscal policies on the firm choice to produce underground. We consider a tax evading firm operating simultaneously both in the regular and in the underground economy. We suggest that such a kind of firm, referred to as moonlighting firm, is able to offset the specific costs usually stressed by literature on underground production, such as those suggested by Loayza (1994) and Anderberg et alii (2003). Investigating the effects of different fiscal policy interventions, we find that taxation is a critical parameter to define the size of capital allocation in the underground production. In fact, a strong and inverse relationship is found, and tax reduction is the best policy to reduce the convenience to produce underground. We also confirm the depressing effect on investment of taxation (see, for instance, Summers, 1981), so that tax reduction has no cost in terms of investment. By contrast, the model states that while enforcement is an effective tool to reduce capital allocation in the underground production, it also reduce the total capital stock. Moreover, we also suggest that the allowance of incentives to capital accumulation may generate, in this specific typology of firm, some unexpected effects, causing, together with a positive investment process, also an increase in the share of irregularity. This finding could explain, in a microeconomic framework, the evidence of Italian southern regions, where high incentives are combined with high irregularity ratios.tax evasion, moonlighting, capital subsidies, underground production

Firm-oriented policies, tax cheating and perverse outcomes

This paper examines the implications of firm-oriented fiscal policies, namely investment subsidies and tax allowances, in an economy where producers may potentially avoid taxes. Among our results we stress the following. First, although investment subsidies induce increased capital accumulation (a level effect), they promote tax evasion; these subsidies induce firms to increase actual capital accumulation (a level effect), but also produce a reduction in the share of aggregate capital stock deployed in taxed, "official" production (a composition effect). Second, parameters characterizing the tax enforcement system play a major role in explaining tax evasion and firm size. Third, the technology structure matters for determining how to allocate resources between official and unofficial production.State aid, tax exemptions, investment subsidies, tax evasion, unofficial underground production, investment

State Aid Policies and Underground Activities

The main goal of this paper is to examine the implications of firm-oriented fiscal policies, such as capital subsidies and tax allowances, in an economy with an underground sector. In addition, we investigate whether the technology structure of “hidden” production may facilitate or counteract the effects of fiscal policies on firm behavior. Among our results we stress the following: first, capital subsidies promote tax evasion; these subsidies induce firms to increase actual capital accumulation (a level effect), but also produce a reduction in the regular share of aggregate capital stock (a composition effect). Second, tax relief reduces underground activities and fosters capital accumulation, as well as aggregate production. Third, the technology structure matters for determining how to allocate resources between formal and informal production, hence the amount of reported revenues.State aid, tax exemptions, capital subsidies, tax evasion, underground production, physical capital accumulation.