Model for predicting short-term mortality of severe sepsis

International audienceABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: To establish a prognostic model for predicting 14-day mortality in ICU patients with severe sepsis overall and according to place of infection acquisition and to sepsis episode number. METHODS: In this prospective multicentre observational study on a multicentre database (OUTCOMEREA) including data from 12 ICUs, 2268 patients with 2737 episodes of severe sepsis were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=1458) and a validation cohort (n=810). Up to four consecutive severe sepsis episodes per patient occurring within the first 28 ICU days were included. We developed a prognostic model for predicting death within 14 days after each episode, based on patient data available at sepsis onset. RESULTS: Independent predictors of death were logistic organ dysfunction (OR, 1.22 per point, p<10-4), septic shock (OR, 1.40; p=0.01), rank of severe sepsis episode (1 reference, 2: OR, 1.26; p=0.10 [greater than or equal to]3: OR, 2.64 ;10-3), multiple sources of infection (OR; 1.45, p=0.03), simplified acute physiology score II (OR, 1.02 per point; p<10-4), McCabe score ([greater than or equal to]2)(OR, 1.96; p<10-4), and number of chronic co-morbidities (1: OR, 1.75; p=10-3, [greater than or equal to]2: OR, 2.24, p= 10-3). Validity of the model was good in whole cohorts (AUC-ROC, 0.76; 95%CI [0.74; 0.79] and HL Chi-square: 15.3 (p=0.06) for all episodes pooled). CONCLUSIONS: In ICU patients, a prognostic model based on a few easily obtained variables is effective in predicting death within 14 days after the first to fourth episode of severe sepsis complicating community-, hospital-, or ICU-acquired infection

Nosocomial Infection After Septic Shock Among Intensive Care Unit Patients

International audienc

A model to predict short-term death or readmission after intensive care unit discharge.

OBJECTIVE: Early unplanned readmission to the intensive care unit (ICU) carries a poor prognosis, and post-ICU mortality may be related, in part, to premature ICU discharge. Our objectives were to identify independent risk factors for early post-ICU readmission or death and to construct a prediction model. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of a prospective database was done. SETTING: Four ICUs of the French Outcomerea network participated. PATIENTS: Patients were consecutive adults with ICU stay longer than 24 hours who were discharged alive to same-hospital wards without treatment-limitation decisions. MAIN RESULTS: Of 5014 admitted patients, 3462 met our inclusion criteria. Age was 60.6 +/- 17.6 years, and admission Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) was 35.1 +/- 15.1. The rate of death or ICU readmission within 7 days after ICU discharge was 3.0%. Independent risk factors for this outcome were age, SAPS II at ICU admission, use of a central venous catheter in the ICU, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome scores before ICU discharge, and discharge at night. The predictive model based on these variables showed good calibration. Compared with SAPS II at admission or Stability and Workload Index for Transfer at discharge, discrimination was better with our model (area under receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.79). CONCLUSION: Among patients without treatment-limitation decisions and discharged alive from the ICU, 3.0% died or were readmitted within 7 days. Independent risk factors were indicators of patients' severity and discharge at night. Our prediction model should be evaluated in other ICU populations

: severe sepsis and sex gender

International audienceBACKGROUND: The influence of gender on survival of patients with severe sepsis is unclear. Earlier studies suggested better survival in women, possibly related to the sex-steroid profile. METHODS: To investigate whether mortality from severe sepsis was higher in men than in women and whether the difference varied with menopausal status, we studied 1,692 patients with severe sepsis included in the OutcomeRea database over an 8-year period. We conducted a nested case-control study, accurately matching men and women on three criteria: a death propensity score, age, and center. Subgroup analyses were performed on individuals 50 years old (men vs postmenopausal women). RESULTS: We matched 1,000 men to 608 women with severe sepsis before and after adjustment for confounding factors (ie, chronic respiratory failure; metastatic cancer; immunocompromised status; emergency surgery, acute respiratory failure, and shock at admission; urinary tract infection; and type of microorganism). Overall hospital mortality was significantly lower in women (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57 to 0.97; p = 0.02). In the group > 50 years old (481 women, 778 men), hospital mortality was significantly lower in women (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.93; p = 0.014). Hospital mortality was not significantly different between men and women in the younger group (127 women, 222 men) [OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.52 to 1.97; p = 0.98]. Level of care, as assessed using the nine equivalents of nursing manpower use score, was identical in men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals > 50 years old with severe sepsis, women have a lower risk of hospital mortality than men

Attributable mortality of ventilator-associated pneumonia: respective impact of main characteristics at ICU admission and VAP onset using conditional logistic regression and multi-state models

International audiencePURPOSE: Methods for estimating the excess mortality attributable to ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) should handle VAP as a time-dependent covariate, since the probability of experiencing VAP increases with the time on mechanical ventilation. VAP-attributable mortality (VAP-AM) varies with definitions, case-mix, causative microorganisms, and treatment adequacy. Our objectives here were to compare VAP-AM estimates obtained using a traditional cohort analysis, a multistate progressive disability model, and a matched-cohort analysis; and to compare VAP-AM estimates according to VAP characteristics. METHODS: We used data from 2,873 mechanically ventilated patients in the Outcomerea((R)) database. Among these patients from 12 intensive care units, 434 (15.1%) experienced VAP; of the remaining patients, 1,969 (68.5%) were discharged alive and 470 (16.4%) died. With the multistate model, VAP-AM was 8.1% (95% confidence interval [95%CI], 3.1-13.1%) for 120 days' complete observation, compared to 10.4% (5.6-24.5%) using a matched-cohort approach (2,769 patients) with matching on mechanical ventilation duration followed by conditional logistic regression. VAP-AM was higher in surgical patients and patients with intermediate (but not high) Simplified Acute Physiologic Score II values at ICU admission. VAP-AM was significantly influenced by time to VAP but not by resistance of causative microorganisms. Higher Logistic Organ Dysfunction score at VAP onset dramatically increased VAP-AM (to 31.9% in patients with scores above 7). CONCLUSION: A multistate model that appropriately handled VAP as a time-dependent event produced lower VAP-AM values than conditional logistic regression. VAP-AM varied widely with case-mix. Disease severity at VAP onset markedly influenced VAP-AM; this may contribute to the variability of previous estimates

Association between hypernatraemia acquired in the ICU and mortality: a cohort study.

International audienceBACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to describe the prevalence and outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired hypernatraemia (IAH). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on a prospectively collected database fed by 12 ICUs. Subjects are unselected patients with ICU stay >48 h. Mild and moderate to severe hypernatraemia were defined as serum sodium >145 and >150 mmol/L, respectively. IAH was hypernatraemia occurring >/=24 h after ICU admission in patients with normal serum sodium at ICU admission. RESULTS: Of the 8441 patients, 301 were excluded because they had hypernatraemia at ICU admission. Of the remaining 8140 patients, 901 (11.1%) experienced mild hypernatraemia, and 344 (4.2%) experienced moderate to severe hypernatraemia. Factors independently associated with IAH were male gender, severity at admission as assessed by the Simplified Acute Physiology Score version II (SAPS II), and organ failure or life-supporting treatment at ICU admission. Unadjusted hospital mortality was 15.2% in patients without hypernatraemia compared to 29.5% in patients with mild IAH and 46.2% in those with moderate to severe IAH (P < 0.0001). When any degree of IAH was handled as a time-dependent variable in a subdistribution hazard model, the subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) for ICU mortality was 4.26 [95% confidence interval (CI), 3.74-4.84]. After stratification by centre and adjustment for confounders, both mild IAH and moderate to severe IAH were independently associated with mortality [SHR 2.03 (95% CI 1.73-2.39) and 2.67 (95% CI 2.19-3.26), respectively]. CONCLUSION: IAH is frequent and associated with mortality after adjustment on severity at ICU admission

Chlorhexidine-impregnated sponges and less frequent dressing changes for prevention of catheter-related infections in critically ill adults: a randomized controlled trial.

International audienceCONTEXT: Use of a chlorhexidine gluconate-impregnated sponge (CHGIS) in intravascular catheter dressings may reduce catheter-related infections (CRIs). Changing catheter dressings every 3 days may be more frequent than necessary. OBJECTIVE: To assess superiority of CHGIS dressings regarding the rate of major CRIs (clinical sepsis with or without bloodstream infection) and noninferiority (less than 3% colonization-rate increase) of 7-day vs 3-day dressing changes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Assessor-blind, 2 x 2 factorial, randomized controlled trial conducted from December 2006 through June 2008 and recruiting patients from 7 intensive care units in 3 university and 2 general hospitals in France. Patients were adults (>18 years) expected to require an arterial catheter, central-vein catheter, or both inserted for 48 hours or longer. INTERVENTIONS: Use of CHGIS vs standard dressings (controls). Scheduled change of unsoiled adherent dressings every 3 vs every 7 days, with immediate change of any soiled or leaking dressings. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Major CRIs for comparison of CHGIS vs control dressings; colonization rate for comparison of 3- vs 7-day dressing changes. RESULTS: Of 2095 eligible patients, 1636 (3778 catheters, 28,931 catheter-days) could be evaluated. The median duration of catheter insertion was 6 (interquartile range [IQR], 4-10) days. There was no interaction between the interventions. Use of CHGIS dressings decreased the rates of major CRIs (10/1953 [0.5%], 0.6 per 1000 catheter-days vs 19/1825 [1.1%], 1.4 per 1000 catheter-days; hazard ratio [HR], 0.39 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.17-0.93]; P = .03) and catheter-related bloodstream infections (6/1953 catheters, 0.40 per 1000 catheter-days vs 17/1825 catheters, 1.3 per 1000 catheter-days; HR, 0.24 [95% CI, 0.09-0.65]). Use of CHGIS dressings was not associated with greater resistance of bacteria in skin samples at catheter removal. Severe CHGIS-associated contact dermatitis occurred in 8 patients (5.3 per 1000 catheters). Use of CHGIS dressings prevented 1 major CRI per 117 catheters. Catheter colonization rates were 142 of 1657 catheters (7.8%) in the 3-day group (10.4 per 1000 catheter-days) and 168 of 1828 catheters (8.6%) in the 7-day group (11.0 per 1000 catheter-days), a mean absolute difference of 0.8% (95% CI, -1.78% to 2.15%) (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.77-1.28), indicating noninferiority of 7-day changes. The median number of dressing changes per catheter was 4 (IQR, 3-6) in the 3-day group and 3 (IQR, 2-5) in the 7-day group (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Use of CHGIS dressings with intravascular catheters in the intensive care unit reduced risk of infection even when background infection rates were low. Reducing the frequency of changing unsoiled adherent dressings from every 3 days to every 7 days modestly reduces the total number of dressing changes and appears safe. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00417235