Surviving Slavery. Mortality at Mesopotamia, a Jamaican sugar estate, 1762 - 1832

We use survival analysis to study the mortality experience of 1111 slaves living on the British West Indian sugar plantation of Mesopotamia for seven decades prior to the Emancipation Act of 1833. Using three different concepts of analysis time and employing non-parametric and semi-parametric models, our results suggest that female slaves first observed under Joseph Foster Barham II's period of ownership (1789-1832) faced an increased hazard of death compared with those first observed during his predecessor's tenure. We find no such relationship for males. We cite as a possible explanation the employment regime operated by Foster Barham II, which allocated increasing numbers of females to gang labour in the cane fields. A G-estimation model used to compensate for the 'healthy worker survivor effect' estimates that continuous exposure to such work reduced survival times by between 20 and 40 per cent. Our findings are compared with previous studies of Mesopotamia and related to the wider literature investigating the roles of fertility and mortality in undermining the sustainability of Caribbean slave populations.

What do Bayesian methods offer population forecasters?

The Bayesian approach has a number of attractive properties for probabilistic forecasting. In this paper, we apply Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates with uncertainty for England and Wales. To account for heterogeneity found in the historical data, we add parameters to represent the stochastic volatility in the error terms. Uncertainty in model choice is incorporated through Bayesian model averaging techniques. The resulting predictive distributions from Bayesian forecasting models have two main advantages over those obtained using traditional stochastic models. Firstly, data and uncertainties in the parameters and model choice are explicitly included using probability distributions. As a result, more realistic probabilistic population forecasts can be obtained. Second, Bayesian models formally allow the incorporation of expert opinion, including uncertainty, into the forecast. Our results are discussed in relation to classical time series methods and existing cohort component projections. This paper demonstrates the flexibility of the Bayesian approach to simple population forecasting and provides insights into further developments of more complicated population models that include, for example, components of demographic change

The impace of custom ROM backups on android external storage erasure

The Android operating system is the current market leader on mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet computers. The core operating system is open source and has a number of developers creating variants of this operating system. These variants, often referred to as custom ROMs are available for a wide number of mobile devices. Custom ROMs provide a number of features, such as enhanced control over the operating system, variation in user interfaces and so on. The process of installing custom ROMs is often accomplished through the use of a ROM manager application. Such applications often provide mechanisms to back up the contents of the mobile device prior to upgrade. This mechanism is utilised in the case of a failed update to restore the device to its previous functional state. Backups produced in this manner are often stored in on an external media such as a micro-SD card.In the conducted research we evaluated devices inbuilt data erasure mechanisms within the context of erasure of backups produced by ROM managers. It was found that simply using the devices Format External / SD function is not an effective means of completely erasing these backups. Once recovered, these backups offer a quick source of information that a potential attacker could carve to retrieve user files such as media transferred to the external or from applications. Although the same files could be recovered from an image of the external storage itself, the carving process is more efficient than traditional carving methods

Integrated Modelling of European Migration: Background, specification and results

The aims of this paper are to present the background and specification of the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) model. Currently, international migration data are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. This creates problems when attempting to understand or predict population movements between countries as the reported data are inconsistent in terms of their availability, definitions and quality. Rather than wait for countries to harmonise their migration data collection and reporting systems, we propose a model to overcome the limitations of the various data sources. In particular, we propose a Bayesian model for harmonising and correcting the inadequacies in the available data and for estimating the completely missing flows. The focus is on estimating recent international migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) from 2002 to 2008, using data collected by Eurostat and other national and international institutions. We also include additional information provided by experts on the effects of undercount, measurement and accuracy. The methodology is integrated and capable of providing a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters.

Resting state correlates of subdimensions of anxious affect

Resting state fMRI may help identify markers of risk for affective disorder. Given the comorbidity of anxiety and depressive disorders and the heterogeneity of these disorders as defined by DSM, an important challenge is to identify alterations in resting state brain connectivity uniquely associated with distinct profiles of negative affect. The current study aimed to address this by identifying differences in brain connectivity specifically linked to cognitive and physiological profiles of anxiety, controlling for depressed affect. We adopted a two-stage multivariate approach. Hierarchical clustering was used to independently identify dimensions of negative affective style and resting state brain networks. Combining the clustering results, we examined individual differences in resting state connectivity uniquely associated with subdimensions of anxious affect, controlling for depressed affect. Physiological and cognitive subdimensions of anxious affect were identified. Physiological anxiety was associated with widespread alterations in insula connectivity, including decreased connectivity between insula subregions and between the insula and other medial frontal and subcortical networks. This is consistent with the insula facilitating communication between medial frontal and subcortical regions to enable control of physiological affective states. Meanwhile, increased connectivity within a frontoparietal-posterior cingulate cortex-precunous network was specifically associated with cognitive anxiety, potentially reflecting increased spontaneous negative cognition (e.g., worry). These findings suggest that physiological and cognitive anxiety comprise subdimensions of anxiety-related affect and reveal associated alterations in brain connectivity

Guidance on emissions metrics for nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement

Many nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement follow the established practice of specifying emissions levels in tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is the emissions metric used most often to aggregate contributions from different greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, the climate impact of pathways expressed in this way is known to be ambiguous. For this reason, alternatives have been proposed but the ambiguity has not been quantified in the context of the Paris Agreement. Here we assess the variation in temperature using pathways consistent with the ambition of limiting temperature increases to well below 2 °C. These are taken from the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15). The CO2 emission levels are adjusted so that the pathways all have the same total CO2 equivalent emissions for a given emissions metric but have different proportions of short-lived and long-lived pollutants. We show that this difference affects projections by up to 0.17 °C when GWP100 is used. Options of reducing this ambiguity include using a different emissions metric or adding supplementary information in NDCs about the emissions levels of individual GHGs. We suggest the latter on the grounds of simplicity and because it does not require agreement on the use of a different emissions metric

Understanding the marine environment : seabed habitat investigations of the Dogger Bank offshore draft SAC

This report details work carried out by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), British Geological Surveys (BGS) and Envision Ltd. for the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC). It has been produced to provide the JNCC with evidence on the distribution and extent of Annex I habitat (including variations of these features) on the Dogger Bank in advance of its possible designation as a Special Area of Conservation (SAC). The report contains information required under Regulation 7 of the Conservation (Natural Habitats, &c.) Regulations 2007 and will enable the JNCC to advise the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) as to whether the site is deemed eligible as a SAC. The report provides detailed information about the Dogger Bank and evaluates its features of interest according to the Habitats Directive selection criteria and guiding principles. This assessment has been made following a thorough analysis of existing information combined with newly acquired field survey data collected using ‘state of the art’ equipment. In support of this process acoustic (sidescan sonar and multibeam echosounder) and groundtruthing data (Hamon grabs, trawls and underwater video) were collected during a 19-day cruise on RV Cefas Endeavour, which took place between 2-20 April 2008. Existing information and newly acquired data were combined to investigate the sub-surface geology, surface sediments and bedforms, epifaunal and infaunal communities of the Dogger Bank. Results were integrated into a habitat map employing the EUNIS classification. Key results are as follows: • The upper Pleistocene Dogger Bank Formation dictates the shape of the Dogger Bank. • The Dogger Bank is morphologically distinguishable from the surrounding seafloor following the application of a technique, which differentiates the degree of slope. • A sheet of Holocene sediments of variable thickness overlies the Dogger Bank Formation. At the seabed surface, these Holocene sediments can be broadly delineated into fine sands and coarse sediments. • Epifaunal and infaunal communities were distinguished based on multivariate analysis of data derived from video and stills analysis and Hamon grab samples. Sediment properties and depth were the main factors controlling the distribution of infauna and epifauna across the Bank. • Epifaunal and infaunal community links were explored. Most stations could be categorised according to one of four combined infaunal/epifaunal community types (i.e. sandy sediment bank community, shallow sandy sediment bank community, coarse sediment bank community or deep community north of the bank). • Biological zones were identified using modelling techniques based on light climate and wave base data. Three biological zones, namely infralittoral, circalittoral and deep circalittoral are present in the study site. • EUNIS level 4 habitats were mapped by integrating acoustic, biological, physical and optical data. Eight different habitats are present on the Dogger Bank. This report also provides some of the necessary information and data to help the JNCC ultimately reach a judgement as to whether the Dogger Bank is suitable as an SAC. In support of this process the encountered habitats and the ecology of the Dogger Bank are compared with other SACs known to contain sandbank habitats in UK waters. The functional and ecological importance of the Dogger Bank as well as potential anthropogenic impacts is discussed. A scientific justification underlying the proposed Dogger Bank dSAC boundary is also given (Appendix 1). This is followed by a discussion of the suitability and cost-effectiveness of techniques utilised for seabed investigations of the Dogger Bank. Finally, recommendations for strategies and techniques employed for investigation of Annex I sandbanks are provided