Rivers of contention : Pak Mun Dam, electricity planning, and state-society relations in Thailand, 1932-2004

This study investigates how actions – especially narratives and claims – of civil society advocates influenced electricity generation planning and hydropower project implementation, in the context of a democratising authoritarian state. To pursue this research agenda, I use a critical realist philosophy of science to ground a conceptual framework whose fundamental components consist of institutions, interests, and discourses. The research presents three case studies from Thailand, a nation-state with distinct authoritarian legacies, as well as significant economic and political dynamism in the late 20th century. The cases step from macro to micro levels of analysis: (1) Electricity generation planning: an overview and critique of the social construction of peak power demand and supply options in Thailand, 1960s–2004. I focus on the rise of energy conservation advocacy in the early 1990s, and the rise of more confrontational energy activism in the late 1990s; (2) Pak Mun Dam: contention between EGAT, anti-dam villagers, and other state and civil society actors, 1989–2003; (3) Pak Mun Dam: analysis of how knowledge discourses shaped debates over fisheries and local livelihoods in the lower Mun river basin, 1999–2004. I pursue these cases in the larger context of Thai state–society relations, 1932–early 2000s: from the Khana Ratsadorn (People’s Party) and its founders’ increasingly authoritarian struggles to shape the state; through to the rise of civil society in the Indochina-war era; through the emergence of parliamentary politics and NGO evolution in the 1980s and early 1990s; to the Thai Rak Thai “money politics” party that emerged in 1998. Specific research questions focus on patterns and outcomes of state–society interaction, the role of lay and expert knowledge discourses in structuring conflict, and plausible causal connections between outcomes and concepts used in the conceptual framework. The study is based on fieldwork conducted between 2001 and 2005, with 18 months of intensive work concentrated in 2002 and 2004. Recurrent procedures consisted of collecting policy narratives and arguments and re-constructing actors’ interests (including those of leaders in organizations) via participant observation, interviews, and textual analysis. The thesis argues that anti-dam advocates influenced project implementation practices at Pak Mun Dam by forming social change networks, gaining contingent recognition as new political actors. Through innovative and disruptive action, through claims for transparency and justice, through mass performances of worthiness, unity, and commitment, and through the production of local knowledge, they helped set agendas. They triggered elite intervention, as well as reactive counter-mobilization and occasional violence. The escalation of uncertainty from unintended outcomes challenged elites – aided by deliberative exchanges – to reconsider unfavourable decisions, to reconsider their preferences, and to make concessions. At the same time, a number of events made the Assembly of the Poor, the main anti-dam movement organization, vulnerable to destabilizing action at the local and national levels. These include: the formation of competitive organizations in the lower Mun basin; complex and intractable issues (such as multiple rounds of compensation); and inability to take credit for championing the interests of vulnerable small farmers. Destabilizing interactions occurred particularly in the restricted media space of the post-financial and economic crisis years. Populist platforms put forward by Thai Rak Thai and Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra pre-empted the AOP’s influence. Sustainable energy advocates influenced practices of power system planning by teaching new techniques of energy conservation, and diffusing new norms. In the recent period, however, as some of them engaged in more contentious interaction, such as intervening in conflicts over new coal and hydroelectric power plants (in southern Thailand and Laos respectively) they disrupted dominant rationalities, and found themselves confronting some of the same core practices of a power-wielding bureaucracy and an authoritarian state, namely rhetorical strategies that police the boundaries of policy-relevant knowledge. The thesis, intended to contribute to social science methodology and theory, concludes with a critical appraisal of the conceptual framework. I suggest new research agendas for analysts interested in mechanisms of civil society advocacy in the context of democratising states

Understanding energy-related regimes: A participatory approach from central Australia

AbstractFor a particular community, what energy-related innovations constitute no-regrets strategies? We present a methodology to understand how alternative energy consuming activities and policy regimes impact on current and future liveability of socio-culturally diverse communities facing climate change. Our methodology augments the energy policy literature by harnessing three concepts (collaborative governance, innovation and political economic regime of provisioning) to support dialogue around changing energy-related activities. We convened workshops in Alice Springs, Australia to build capability to identify no-regrets energy-related housing or transport activities and strategies. In preparation, we interviewed policy actors and constructed three new housing-related future scenarios. After discussing the scenarios, policy and research actors prioritised five socio-technical activities or strategies. Evaluations indicate participants enjoyed opportunities given by the methodology to have focussed discussions about activities and innovation, while requesting more socially nuanced scenario storylines. We discuss implications for theory and technique development

Large hydropower and legitimacy: a policy regime analysis, applied to Myanmar

Hydropower development in capacity-constrained countries can unfold through unsound policy arguments, narrow institutional and implementing arrangements, and ad hoc decision making processes. To derive insights for more legitimate policy making, we provide the first holistic account of Myanmar’s legitimation struggles over large hydropower, focusing on Myitsone, the country’s most controversial dam, during the period 2003–2011. Our analysis takes a policy regime perspective (specifically, a “political economic regime of provisioning” framework). Among our findings: (1) frequent use of non-rationally persuasive argument among contending actors; (2) a spiral of declining policy legitimacy, which is amplified by civil society mobilization, and halted by a 2011 decision to suspend Myitsone; (3) rejection of Myitsone but conditional acceptance of large hydropower among some elements of civil society. Opportunity and capability for more technically informed, inclusive discussion exists in Myanmar, but given hydropower’s complexities, urgently deserves to be augmented. Although Myitsone in Myanmar is an exceptional case, we offer three propositions to assess and improve policy legitimacy of hydropower

The water-food-energy nexus in Pakistan: A biophysical and socio-economic challenge

We draw on previous work examining historical trends, likely future water use and food availability in Pakistan and extend the analysis to consider interactions with hydropower generation and the energy demand in food production due to pumping of groundwater for irrigation. Business-as-usual scenarios suggest growing demands for groundwater and energy use for food production as population grows rapidly. However, groundwater use is already unsustainable in many areas, and energy supply is failing to keep up with demand. Quantifying material linkages between water, food and energy provides a means to explore biophysical constraints. Characterising institutional constraints is equally important, as they can be significant barriers to effective stewardship of water, energy and food resources. The experience in Pakistan reinforces this finding, and we discuss the implications for hydrologists

Node and Regime: Interdisciplinary Analysis of Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Mekong Region

Understanding complex phenomena such as the water-energy-food nexus (resource nexus) requires a more holistic, interdisciplinary inquiry. Spurred by a sense of imbalance in approaches to the nexus dominated by integrated assessment/complex systems methodologies, I re-examine the findings and recommendations of a major 'nexus' research-for-development project in the Mekong region. The concept of 'regime of provisioning', a synthesis of social science concepts related to meso-level social order, allows essential political economy and discursive elements of the resource nexus to be analysed. I show that socio-political regimes constrain societal investment in three 'nodes' of the nexus previously identified as critical to manage sustainably: energy efficiency, wild-capture fisheries, and diversified smallholder agriculture. I discuss implications for the 'nexus' as a new policy agenda and offer three propositions for ongoing inquiry and inclusive practice

Visions, beliefs, and transformation: exploring cross-sector and transboundary dynamics in the wider Mekong region

Policy and investment decisions in highly connected, developing regions can have implications that extend beyond their initial objectives of national development and poverty reduction. Local level decisions that aim to promote trajectories toward desirable futures are often transformative, unexpectedly altering factors that are determined at higher regional levels. The converse also applies. The ability to realize desirable local futures diminishes if decision-making processes are not coordinated with other influential governance and decision levels. Providing effective support across multiple levels of decision making in a connected, transformative environment requires (a) identification and articulation of desired outcomes at the relevant levels of decision making, (b) improved understanding of complex cross-scale interactions that link to potentially transforming decisions, and (c) learning among decision makers and decision influencers. Research implemented through multiple participatory modalities can facilitate such relevant system learning to contribute to sustainable adaptation pathways. We test application of a systematic policy engagement framework, the Challenge and Reconstruct Learning or ChaRL framework, on a set of interdependent development decisions in the Mekong region. The analysis presented here is focused on the implementations of the ChaRL process in the Nam Ngum River Basin, Lao People's Democratic Republic and the Tonle Sap Lake and environs, Cambodia to exemplify what cross-scale and cross-sectoral insights were generated to inform decision-making processes in the wider Mekong region. The participatory process described aligns the facilitated development of scenarios articulating shared future visions at local and regional levels with agent-based simulations and facilitates learning by contrasting desired outcomes with likely, potentially maladaptive outcomes

Large hydropower and legitimacy: A policy regime analysis, applied to Myanmar

Hydropower development in capacity-constrained countries can unfold through unsound policy arguments, narrow institutional and implementing arrangements, and ad hoc decision making processes. To derive insights for more legitimate policy making, we provide the first holistic account of Myanmar's legitimation struggles over large hydropower, focusing on Myitsone, the country's most controversial dam, during the period 2003-2011. Our analysis takes a policy regime perspective (specifically, a "political economic regime of provisioning" framework). Among our findings: (1) frequent use of non-rationally persuasive argument among contending actors; (2) a spiral of declining policy legitimacy, which is amplified by civil society mobilization, and halted by a 2011 decision to suspend Myitsone; (3) rejection of Myitsone but conditional acceptance of large hydropower among some elements of civil society. Opportunity and capability for more technically informed, inclusive discussion exists in Myanmar, but given hydropower's complexities, urgently deserves to be augmented. Although Myitsone in Myanmar is an exceptional case, we offer three propositions to assess and improve policy legitimacy of hydropower

A conversation about energy futures for remote Australian communities – summary and analysis of workshop findings

The ‘Energy futures in remote Australian communities’ project conducted two workshops in May 2014 with the purpose of developing a collaborative understanding of how alternative energy-related practices may impact on the future liveability of selected communities in remote Australia, focusing on housing and transport. The workshops had the following specific objectives: 1. To understand participants’ thoughts and preferences with respect to energy-related housing and transport practices that are important for remote Australia (both in the present and considering a set of future scenarios) 2. To learn more about participants’ experiences related to the above topics 3. To seek content and process recommendations that might support ongoing dialogue and collaboration among interested participants (including processes appropriate for smaller remote communities). The workshops were designed to build capacity of people based in particular place-based communities to answer the following key research question through dialogue and conversation, drawing upon participatory and collaborative research approaches: If the future is uncertain, a strong economy, progressive social attitudes and policy support for energy-related innovations cannot be guaranteed. In your region, what particular policies and innovations should be promoted as no-regrets strategies, regardless of what the future holds? What policies and innovative practices may create new synergies or desired development dynamics

Planning in democratizing river basins:The case for a co-productive model of decision making

We reflect on methodologies to support integrated river basin planning for the Ayeyarwady Basin in Myanmar, and the Kamala Basin in Nepal, to which we contributed from 2017 to 2019. The principles of Integrated Water Resources Management have been promoted across states and regions with markedly different biophysical and political economic conditions. IWRM-based river basin planning is complex, resource intensive, and aspirational. It deserves scrutiny to improve process and outcome legitimacy. We focus on the value of co-production and deliberation in IWRM. Among our findings: (i) multi-stakeholder participation can be complicated by competition between actors for resources and legitimacy; (ii) despite such challenges, multi-stakeholder deliberative approaches can empower actors and can be an effective means for co-producing knowledge; (iii) tensions between (rational choice and co-productive) models of decision complicate participatory deliberative planning. Our experience suggests that a commitment to co-productive decision-making fosters socially legitimate IWRM outcomes