1 research outputs found
Modelling study to estimate the health burden of foodborne diseases: cases, general practice consultations and hospitalisations in the UK, 2009.
OBJECTIVE: To generate estimates of the burden of UK-acquired foodborne disease accounting for uncertainty. DESIGN: A modelling study combining data from national public health surveillance systems for laboratory-confirmed infectious intestinal disease (IID) and outbreaks of foodborne disease and 2 prospective, population-based studies of IID in the community. The underlying data sets covered the time period 1993-2008. We used Monte Carlo simulation and a Bayesian approach, using a systematic review to generate Bayesian priors. We calculated point estimates with 95% credible intervals (CrI). SETTING: UK, 2009. OUTCOME MEASURES: Pathogen-specific estimates of the number of cases, general practice (GP) consultations and hospitalisations for foodborne disease in the UK in 2009. RESULTS: Bayesian approaches gave slightly more conservative estimates of overall health burden (βΌ511β
000 cases vs 566β
000 cases). Campylobacter is the most common foodborne pathogen, causing 280β
400 (95% CrI 182β
503-435β
693) food-related cases and 38β
860 (95% CrI 27β
160-55β
610) GP consultations annually. Despite this, there are only around 562 (95% CrI 189-1330) food-related hospital admissions due to Campylobacter, reflecting relatively low disease severity. Salmonella causes the largest number of hospitalisations, an estimated 2490 admissions (95% CrI 607-9631), closely followed by Escherichia coli O157 with 2233 admissions (95% CrI 170-32β
159). Other common causes of foodborne disease include Clostridium perfringens, with an estimated 79β
570 cases annually (95% CrI 30β
700-211β
298) and norovirus with 74β
100 cases (95% CrI 61β
150-89β
660). Other viruses and protozoa ranked much lower as causes of foodborne disease. CONCLUSIONS: The 3 models yielded similar estimates of the burden of foodborne illness in the UK and show that continued reductions in Campylobacter, Salmonella, E. coli O157, C. perfringens and norovirus are needed to mitigate the impact of foodborne disease