External validation of ADO, DOSE, COTE and CODEX at predicting death in primary care patients with COPD using standard and machine learning approaches

Background Several models for predicting the risk of death in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exist but have not undergone large scale validation in primary care. The objective of this study was to externally validate these models using statistical and machine learning approaches. Methods We used a primary care COPD cohort identified using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Age-standardised mortality rates were calculated for the population by gender and discrimination of ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction), COTE (COPD-specific comorbidity test), DOSE (dyspnoea, airflow obstruction, smoking, exacerbations) and CODEX (comorbidity, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction, exacerbations) at predicting death over 1–3 years measured using logistic regression and a support vector machine learning (SVM) method of analysis. Results The age-standardised mortality rate was 32.8 (95%CI 32.5–33.1) and 25.2 (95%CI 25.4–25.7) per 1000 person years for men and women respectively. Complete data were available for 54879 patients to predict 1-year mortality. ADO performed the best (c-statistic of 0.730) compared with DOSE (c-statistic 0.645), COTE (c-statistic 0.655) and CODEX (c-statistic 0.649) at predicting 1-year mortality. Discrimination of ADO and DOSE improved at predicting 1-year mortality when combined with COTE comorbidities (c-statistic 0.780 ADO + COTE; c-statistic 0.727 DOSE + COTE). Discrimination did not change significantly over 1–3 years. Comparable results were observed using SVM. Conclusion In primary care, ADO appears superior at predicting death in COPD. Performance of ADO and DOSE improved when combined with COTE comorbidities suggesting better models may be generated with additional data facilitated using novel approaches

Selective expansion of viral variants following experimental transmission of a reconstituted feline immunodeficiency virus quasispecies

Following long-term infection with virus derived from the pathogenic GL8 molecular clone of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), a range of viral variants emerged with distinct modes of interaction with the viral receptors CD134 and CXCR4, and sensitivities to neutralizing antibodies. In order to assess whether this viral diversity would be maintained following subsequent transmission, a synthetic quasispecies was reconstituted comprising molecular clones bearing envs from six viral variants and its replicative capacity compared in vivo with a clonal preparation of the parent virus. Infection with either clonal (Group 1) or diverse (Group 2) challenge viruses, resulted in a reduction in CD4+ lymphocytes and an increase in CD8+ lymphocytes. Proviral loads were similar in both study groups, peaking by 10 weeks post-infection, a higher plateau (set-point) being achieved and maintained in study Group 1. Marked differences in the ability of individual viral variants to replicate were noted in Group 2; those most similar to GL8 achieved higher viral loads while variants such as the chimaeras bearing the B14 and B28 Envs grew less well. The defective replication of these variants was not due to suppression by the humoral immune response as virus neutralising antibodies were not elicited within the study period. Similarly, although potent cellular immune responses were detected against determinants in Env, no qualitative differences were revealed between animals infected with either the clonal or the diverse inocula. However, in vitro studies indicated that the reduced replicative capacity of variants B14 and B28 in vivo was associated with altered interactions between the viruses and the viral receptor and co-receptor. The data suggest that viral variants with GL8-like characteristics have an early, replicative advantage and should provide the focus for future vaccine development

Abrasive water jet drilling of advanced sustainable bio-fibre-reinforced polymer/hybrid composites : a comprehensive analysis of machining-induced damage responses

This paper aims at investigating the effects of variable traverse speeds on machining-induced damage of fibre-reinforced composites, using the abrasive water jet (AWJ) drilling. Three different types of epoxy-based composites laminates fabricated by vacuum bagging technique containing unidirectional (UD) flax, hybrid carbon-flax and carbon fibre-reinforced composite were used. The drilling parameters used were traverse speeds of 20, 40, 60 and 80 mm/min, constant water jet pressure of 300 MPa and a hole diameter of 10 mm. The results obtained depict that the traverse speed had a significant effect with respect to both surface roughness and delamination drilling-induced damage responses. Evidently, an increase in water jet traverse speed caused an increase in both damage responses of the three samples. Significantly, the CFRP composite sample recorded the lowest surface roughness damage response, followed by C-FFRP, while FFRP exhibited the highest. However, samples of FFRP and hybrid C-FFRP recorded lowest and highest delamination damage responses, respectively. The discrepancy in both damage responses, as further validated with micrographs of colour video microscopy (CVM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray micro-computed tomography (X-ray μCT), is attributed to the different mechanical properties of the reinforced fibres, fibre orientation/ply stacking and hybridisation of the samples.Peer reviewe

Peptide substrate identification for yeast Hsp40 Ydj1 by screening the phage display library

We have identified a peptide substrate for molecular chaperone Hsp40 Ydj1 by utilizing the combination of phage display library screening and isothemol titration calirimetry (ITC). The initial peptide substrate screening for Hsp40 Ydj1 has been carried out by utilizing a 7-mer phage display library. The peptide sequences from the bio-panning were synthesized and object to the direct affinity measurement for Hsp40 Ydj1 by isothemol titration calirimetry studies. The peptide which has the measurable affinity with Ydj1 shows enriched hydrophobic residues in the middle of the substrate fragment. The peptide substrate specificity for molecular chaperone Hsp40 has been analyzed

Pragmatic application of a clinical prediction rule in primary care to identify patients with low back pain with a good prognosis following a brief spinal manipulation intervention

BACKGROUND: Patients with low back pain are frequently encountered in primary care. Although a specific diagnosis cannot be made for most patients, it is likely that sub-groups exist within the larger entity of nonspecific low back pain. One sub-group that has been identified is patients who respond rapidly to spinal manipulation. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between two factors (duration and distribution of symptoms) and prognosis following a spinal manipulation intervention. METHODS: Data were taken from two previously published studies. Patients with low back pain underwent a standardized examination, including assessment of duration of the current symptoms in days, and the distal-most distribution of symptoms. Based on prior research, patients with symptoms of <16 days duration and no symptoms distal to the knee were considered to have a good prognosis following manipulation. All patients underwent up to two sessions of spinal manipulation treatment and a range of motion exercise. Oswestry disability scores were recorded before and after treatment. If ≥ 50% improvement on the Oswestry was achieved, the intervention was considered a success. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratio were calculated for the association of the two criteria with the outcome of the treatment. RESULTS: 141 patients (49% female, mean age = 35.5 (± 11.1) years) participated. Mean pre- and post-treatment Oswestry scores were 41.9 (± 10.9) and 24.1 (± 14.2) respectively. Sixty-three subjects (45%) had successful treatment outcomes. The sensitivity of the two criteria was 0.56 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.67), specificity was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.96), and the positive likelihood ratio was 7.2 (95% CI: 3.2, 16.1). CONCLUSION: The results of this study demonstrate that two factors; symptom duration of less than 16 days, and no symptoms extending distal to the knee, were associated with a good outcome with spinal manipulation

Broad Antibody Mediated Cross-Neutralization and Preclinical Immunogenicity of New Codon-Optimized HIV-1 Clade CRF02_AG and G Primary Isolates

Creation of an effective vaccine for HIV has been an elusive goal of the scientific community for almost 30 years. Neutralizing antibodies are assumed to be pivotal to the success of a prophylactic vaccine but previous attempts to make an immunogen capable of generating neutralizing antibodies to primary “street strain” isolates have resulted in responses of very limited breadth and potency. The objective of the study was to determine the breadth and strength of neutralizing antibodies against autologous and heterologous primary isolates in a cohort of HIV-1 infected Nigerians and to characterize envelopes from subjects with particularly broad or strong immune responses for possible use as vaccine candidates in regions predominated by HIV-1 CRF02_AG and G subtypes. Envelope vectors from a panel of primary Nigerian isolates were constructed and tested with plasma/sera from the same cohort using the PhenoSense HIV neutralizing antibody assay (Monogram Biosciences Inc, USA) to assess the breadth and potency of neutralizing antibodies. The immediate goal of this study was realized by the recognition of three broadly cross-neutralizing sera: (NG2-clade CRF02_AG, NG3-clade CRF02_AG and NG9- clade G). Based on these findings, envelope gp140 sequences from NG2 and NG9, complemented with a gag sequence (Clade G) and consensus tat (CRF02_AG and G) antigens have been codon-optimized, synthesized, cloned and evaluated in BALB/c mice. The intramuscular administration of these plasmid DNA constructs, followed by two booster DNA immunizations, induced substantial specific humoral response against all constructs and strong cellular responses against the gag and tat constructs. These preclinical findings provide a framework for the design of candidate vaccine for use in regions where the HIV-1 epidemic is driven by clades CRF02_AG and G

Expression of IMP1 Enhances Production of Murine Leukemia Virus Vector by Facilitating Viral Genomic RNA Packaging

Murine leukemia virus (MLV)-based retroviral vector is widely used for gene transfer. Efficient packaging of the genomic RNA is critical for production of high-titer virus. Here, we report that expression of the insulin-like growth factor II mRNA binding protein 1 (IMP1) enhanced the production of infectious MLV vector. Overexpression of IMP1 increased the stability of viral genomic RNA in virus producer cells and packaging of the RNA into progeny virus in a dose-dependent manner. Downregulation of IMP1 in virus producer cells resulted in reduced production of the retroviral vector. These results indicate that IMP1 plays a role in regulating the packaging of MLV genomic RNA and can be used for improving production of retroviral vectors

A comparison of three clustering methods for finding subgroups in MRI, SMS or clinical data: SPSS TwoStep Cluster analysis, Latent Gold and SNOB

Background: There are various methodological approaches to identifying clinically important subgroups and one method is to identify clusters of characteristics that differentiate people in cross-sectional and/or longitudinal data using Cluster Analysis (CA) or Latent Class Analysis (LCA). There is a scarcity of head-to-head comparisons that can inform the choice of which clustering method might be suitable for particular clinical datasets and research questions. Therefore, the aim of this study was to perform a head-to-head comparison of three commonly available methods (SPSS TwoStep CA, Latent Gold LCA and SNOB LCA). Methods. The performance of these three methods was compared: (i) quantitatively using the number of subgroups detected, the classification probability of individuals into subgroups, the reproducibility of results, and (ii) qualitatively using subjective judgments about each program's ease of use and interpretability of the presentation of results.We analysed five real datasets of varying complexity in a secondary analysis of data from other research projects. Three datasets contained only MRI findings (n = 2,060 to 20,810 vertebral disc levels), one dataset contained only pain intensity data collected for 52 weeks by text (SMS) messaging (n = 1,121 people), and the last dataset contained a range of clinical variables measured in low back pain patients (n = 543 people). Four artificial datasets (n = 1,000 each) containing subgroups of varying complexity were also analysed testing the ability of these clustering methods to detect subgroups and correctly classify individuals when subgroup membership was known. Results: The results from the real clinical datasets indicated that the number of subgroups detected varied, the certainty of classifying individuals into those subgroups varied, the findings had perfect reproducibility, some programs were easier to use and the interpretability of the presentation of their findings also varied. The results from the artificial datasets indicated that all three clustering methods showed a near-perfect ability to detect known subgroups and correctly classify individuals into those subgroups. Conclusions: Our subjective judgement was that Latent Gold offered the best balance of sensitivity to subgroups, ease of use and presentation of results with these datasets but we recognise that different clustering methods may suit other types of data and clinical research questions

Effects of low intensity pulsed ultrasound with and without increased cortical porosity on structural bone allograft incorporation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Though used for over a century, structural bone allografts suffer from a high rate of mechanical failure due to limited graft revitalization even after extended periods <it>in vivo</it>. Novel strategies that aim to improve graft incorporation are lacking but necessary to improve the long-term clinical outcome of patients receiving bone allografts. The current study evaluated the effect of low-intensity pulsed ultrasound (LIPUS), a potent exogenous biophysical stimulus used clinically to accelerate the course of fresh fracture healing, and longitudinal allograft perforations (LAP) as non-invasive therapies to improve revitalization of intercalary allografts in a sheep model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Fifteen skeletally-mature ewes were assigned to five experimental groups based on allograft type and treatment: +CTL, -CTL, LIPUS, LAP, LIPUS+LAP. The +CTL animals (n = 3) received a tibial ostectomy with immediate replacement of the resected autologous graft. The -CTL group (n = 3) received fresh frozen ovine tibial allografts. The +CTL and -CTL groups did not receive LAP or LIPUS treatments. The LIPUS treatment group (n = 3), following grafting with fresh frozen ovine tibial allografts, received ultrasound stimulation for 20 minutes/day, 5 days/week, for the duration of the healing period. The LAP treatment group (n = 3) received fresh frozen ovine allografts with 500 μm longitudinal perforations that extended 10 mm into the graft. The LIPUS+LAP treatment group (n = 3) received both LIPUS and LAP interventions. All animals were humanely euthanized four months following graft transplantation for biomechanical and histological analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After four months of healing, daily LIPUS stimulation of the host-allograft junctions, alone or in combination with LAP, resulted in 30% increases in reconstruction stiffness, paralleled by significant increases (p < 0.001) in callus maturity and periosteal bridging across the host/allograft interfaces. Longitudinal perforations extending 10 mm into the proximal and distal endplates filled to varying degrees with new appositional bone and significantly accelerated revitalization of the allografts compared to controls.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The current study has demonstrated in a large animal model the potential of both LIPUS and LAP therapy to improve the degree of allograft incorporation. LAP may provide an option for increasing porosity, and thus potential <it>in vivo </it>osseous apposition and revitalization, without adversely affecting the structural integrity of the graft.</p

The stellar halo of the Galaxy

Stellar halos may hold some of the best preserved fossils of the formation history of galaxies. They are a natural product of the merging processes that probably take place during the assembly of a galaxy, and hence may well be the most ubiquitous component of galaxies, independently of their Hubble type. This review focuses on our current understanding of the spatial structure, the kinematics and chemistry of halo stars in the Milky Way. In recent years, we have experienced a change in paradigm thanks to the discovery of large amounts of substructure, especially in the outer halo. I discuss the implications of the currently available observational constraints and fold them into several possible formation scenarios. Unraveling the formation of the Galactic halo will be possible in the near future through a combination of large wide field photometric and spectroscopic surveys, and especially in the era of Gaia.Comment: 46 pages, 16 figures. References updated and some minor changes. Full-resolution version available at http://www.astro.rug.nl/~ahelmi/stellar-halo-review.pd