Minimizing Bias in Biomass Allometry: Model Selection and Log‐Transformation of Data

Nonlinear regression is increasingly used to develop allometric equations for forest biomass estimation (i.e., as opposed to the traditional approach of log‐transformation followed by linear regression). Most statistical software packages, however, assume additive errors by default, violating a key assumption of allometric theory and possibly producing spurious models. Here, we show that such models may bias stand‐level biomass estimates by up to 100 percent in young forests, and we present an alternative nonlinear fitting approach that conforms with allometric theory

Comparing Fixed-amount and Progressive-amount DRO Schedules for Tic Suppression in Youth with Chronic Tic Disorders

Chronic tic disorders (CTDs) involve motor and/or vocal tics that often cause substantial distress and impairment. Differential reinforcement of other behavior (DRO) schedules of reinforcement produce robust, but incomplete, reductions in tic frequency in youth with CTDs; however, a more robust reduction may be needed to affect durable clinical change. Standard, fixed‐amount DRO schedules have not commonly yielded such reductions, so we evaluated a novel, progressive‐amount DRO schedule, based on its ability to facilitate sustained abstinence from functionally similar behaviors. Five youth with CTDs were exposed to periods of baseline, fixed‐amount DRO (DRO‐F), and progressive‐amount DRO (DRO‐P). Both DRO schedules produced decreases in tic rate and increases in intertic interval duration, but no systematic differences were seen between the two schedules on any dimension of tic occurrence. The DRO‐F schedule was generally preferred to the DRO‐P schedule. Possible procedural improvements and other future directions are discussed

Novel Forests Maintain Ecosystem Processes After the Decline of Native Tree Species

The positive relationship between species diversity (richness and evenness) and critical ecosystem functions, such as productivity, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling, is often used to predict the consequences of extinction. At regional scales, however, plant species richness is mostly increasing rather than decreasing because successful plant species introductions far outnumber extinctions. If these regional increases in richness lead to local increases in diversity, a reasonable prediction is that productivity, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling will increase following invasion, yet this prediction has rarely been tested empirically. We tested this prediction in novel forest communities dominated by introduced species (~90% basal area) in lowland Hawaiian rain forests by comparing their functionality to that of native forests. We conducted our comparison along a natural gradient of increasing nitrogen availability, allowing for a more detailed examination of the role of plant functional trait differences (specifically, N2 fixation) in driving possible changes to ecosystem function. Hawaii is emblematic of regional patterns of species change; it has much higher regional plant richness than it did historically, due to \u3e1000 plant species introductions and only ~71 known plant extinctions, resulting in an ~100% increase in richness. At local scales, we found that novel forests had significantly higher tree species richness and higher diversity of dominant tree species. We further found that aboveground biomass, productivity, nutrient turnover (as measured by soil-available and litter-cycled nitrogen and phosphorus), and belowground carbon storage either did not differ significantly or were significantly greater in novel relative to native forests. We found that the addition of introduced N2-fixing tree species on N-limited substrates had the strongest effect on ecosystem function, a pattern found by previous empirical tests. Our results support empirical predictions of the functional effects of diversity, but they also suggest basic ecosystem processes will continue even after dramatic losses of native species diversity if simple functional roles are provided by introduced species. Because large portions of the Earth\u27s surface are undergoing similar transitions from native to novel ecosystems, our results are likely to be broadly applicable

Estimating long-term volatility parameters for market-consistent models

Contemporary actuarial and accounting practices (APN 110 in the South African context) require the use of market-consistent models for the valuation of embedded investment derivatives. These models have to be calibrated with accurate and up-to-date market data. Arguably, the most important variable in the valuation of embedded equity derivatives is implied volatility. However, accurate long-term volatility estimation is difficult because of a general lack of tradable, liquid medium- and long-term derivative instruments, be they exchange-traded or over the counter. In South Africa, given the relatively short-term nature of the local derivatives market, this is of particular concern. This paper attempts to address this concern by: — providing a comprehensive, critical evaluation of the long-term volatility models most commonly used in practice, encompassing simple historical volatility estimation and econometric, deterministic and stochastic volatility models; and — introducing several fairly recent nonparametric alternative methods for estimating long-term volatility, namely break-even volatility and canonical option valuation. The authors apply these various models and methodologies to South African market data, thus providing practical, long-term volatility estimates under each modelling framework whilst accounting for real-world difficulties and constraints. In so doing, they identify those models and methodologies they consider to be most suited to long-term volatility estimation and propose best estimation practices within each identified area. Thus, while application is restricted to the South African market, the general discussion, as well as the suggestion of best practice, in each of the evaluated modelling areas remains relevant for all long-term volatility estimation

Limited native plant regeneration in novel, exotic-dominated forests on Hawai’i

Ecological invasions are a major driver of global environmental change. When invasions are frequent and prolonged, exotic species can become dominant and ultimately create novel ecosystem types. These ecosystems are now widespread globally. Recent evidence from Puerto Rico suggests that exotic-dominated forests can provide suitable regeneration sites for native species and promote native species abundance, but this pattern has been little explored elsewhere. We surveyed 46 sites in Hawai’i to determine whether native species occurred in the understories of exotic-dominated forests. Native trees smaller than 10 cm in diameter were absent in 28 of the 46 sites and rare in the others. Natives were never the dominant understory species; in fact, they accounted for less than 10% of understory basal area at all but six sites, and less than 4% on average. Sites with native species in the understory tended to be on young lava substrate lacking human disturbance, and were mostly located close to intact, native-dominated forest stands. Even where we found some native species, however, most were survivors of past exotic encroachment into native forest, rather than products of active recolonization by native species. In contrast with successional trajectories in Puerto Rico, Hawaii\u27s exotic-dominated forests can emerge, via invasion, without human disturbance and native Hawaiian plants are largely unable to colonize them once they appear. We suggest that a wide diversity of growth strategies among the exotic species on Hawai’i may limit the opportunities for native plants to colonize exotic-dominated forests

A study protocol for a randomised crossover study evaluating the effect of diets differing in carbohydrate quality on ileal content and appetite regulation in healthy humans

A major component of the digesta reaching the colon from the distal ileum is carbohydrate. This carbohydrate is subject to microbial fermentation and can radically change bacterial populations in the colon and the metabolites they produce, particularly short-chain fatty acids (SCFA). However, very little is currently known about the forms and levels of carbohydrate in the ileum and the composition of the ileal microbiota in humans. Most of our current understanding of carbohydrate that is not absorbed by the small intestine comes from ileostomy models, which may not reflect the physiology of an intact gastrointestinal tract. We will investigate how ileal content changes depending on diet using a randomised crossover study in healthy humans. Participants will be inpatients at the research facility for three separate 4-day visits. During each visit, participants will consume one of three diets, which differ in carbohydrate quality: 1) low-fibre refined diet; 2) high-fibre diet with intact cellular structures; 3) high-fibre diet where the cellular structures have been disrupted (e.g. milling, blending). On day 1, a nasoenteric tube will be placed into the distal ileum and its position confirmed under fluoroscopy. Ileal samples will be collected via the nasoenteric tube and metabolically profiled, which will determine the amount and type of carbohydrate present, and the composition of the ileal microbiota will be measured. Blood samples will be collected to assess circulating hormones and metabolites. Stool samples will be collected to assess faecal microbiota composition. Subjective appetite measures will be collected using visual analogue scales. Breath hydrogen will be measured in real-time as a marker of intestinal fermentation. Finally, an continuous fermentation model will be inoculated with ileal fluid in order to understand the shift in microbial composition and SCFA produced in the colon following the different diets. ISRCTN11327221. [Abstract copyright: Copyright: © 2019 Byrne CS et al.

Evaluation and implications of natural product use in preoperative patients: a retrospective review

Background: Medication Reconciliation and Medication Safety are two themes emphasized in a variety of healthcare organizations. As a result, health care facilities have established methods for obtaining a patient's medication history. However, these methods may vary among institutions or even among the health care professionals in a single institution, and studies have shown that patients are reluctant to disclose their complementary and alternative medicine use to any health care professional. This lack of disclosure is important in surgical patients because of potential herbal interactions with medications and drugs used during the surgical procedure; and the potential for adverse reactions including effects on coagulation, blood pressure, sedation, electrolytes or diuresis. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to identify patterns of natural product use, to identify potential complications among patients scheduled for surgery, to improve existing medication reconciliation efforts, and to develop discontinuation guidelines for the use of these products prior to surgery. Methods: A retrospective review of surgery patients presenting to the Anesthesia Preoperative Evaluation Clinic (APEC) at the University of Kansas Hospital was conducted to identify the prevalence of natural product use. The following data was collected: patient age; gender; allergy information; date of medication history; number of days prior to surgery; source of medication history; credentials of person obtaining the history; number and name of prescription medications, over-the-counter medications and natural products; and natural product dosage. Following the collection of data and analysis of the most common natural products used, possible complications and interactions were identified, and a protocol regarding the pre-operative use of natural products was developed and implemented. Results: Approximately one-fourth of patients seen in the APEC indicated the use of natural products. Patients taking natural products were significantly older, were more likely to undergo cardiac or chest surgery, and were more likely to be taking more prescription and non-prescription medications (all p < 0.001). Conclusion: Based on the results of this study, it is concluded that there is a need for established guidelines regarding discontinuation of selected natural products prior to surgery and further education is needed concerning the perioperative implications of natural products