Bayesian approaches to distribution regression

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not propagate the uncertainty in observations due to sampling variability in the groups. This effectively assumes that small and large groups are estimated equally well, and should have equal weight in the final regression. We account for this uncertainty with a Bayesian distribution regression formalism, improving the robustness and performance of the model when group sizes vary. We frame our models in a neural network style, allowing for simple MAP inference using backpropagation to learn the parameters, as well as MCMC-based inference which can fully propagate uncertainty. We demonstrate our approach on illustrative toy datasets, as well as on a challenging problem of predicting age from images

Improved prediction accuracy for disease risk mapping using Gaussian process stacked generalization.

Maps of infectious disease-charting spatial variations in the force of infection, degree of endemicity and the burden on human health-provide an essential evidence base to support planning towards global health targets. Contemporary disease mapping efforts have embraced statistical modelling approaches to properly acknowledge uncertainties in both the available measurements and their spatial interpolation. The most common such approach is Gaussian process regression, a mathematical framework composed of two components: a mean function harnessing the predictive power of multiple independent variables, and a covariance function yielding spatio-temporal shrinkage against residual variation from the mean. Though many techniques have been developed to improve the flexibility and fitting of the covariance function, models for the mean function have typically been restricted to simple linear terms. For infectious diseases, known to be driven by complex interactions between environmental and socio-economic factors, improved modelling of the mean function can greatly boost predictive power. Here, we present an ensemble approach based on stacked generalization that allows for multiple nonlinear algorithmic mean functions to be jointly embedded within the Gaussian process framework. We apply this method to mapping Plasmodium falciparum prevalence data in sub-Saharan Africa and show that the generalized ensemble approach markedly outperforms any individual method

National, regional, and global estimates of anaemia by severity in women and children for 2000-19: a pooled analysis of population-representative data

BACKGROUND: Anaemia causes health and economic harms. The prevalence of anaemia in women aged 15-49 years, by pregnancy status, is indicator 2.2.3 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and the aim of halving the anaemia prevalence in women of reproductive age by 2030 is an extension of the 2025 global nutrition targets endorsed by the World Health Assembly (WHA). We aimed to estimate the prevalence of anaemia by severity for children aged 6-59 months, non-pregnant women aged 15-49 years, and pregnant women aged 15-49 years in 197 countries and territories and globally for the period 2000-19. METHODS: For this pooled analysis of population-representative data, we collated 489 data sources on haemoglobin distribution in children and women from 133 countries, including 4·5 million haemoglobin measurements. Our data sources comprised health examination, nutrition, and household surveys, accessed as anonymised individual records or as summary statistics such as mean haemoglobin and anaemia prevalence. We used a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model to estimate haemoglobin distributions in each population and country-year. This model allowed for coherent estimation of mean haemoglobin and prevalence of anaemia by severity. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, 40% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 36-44) of children aged 6-59 months were anaemic, compared to 48% (45-51) in 2000. Globally, the prevalence of anaemia in non-pregnant women aged 15-49 years changed little between 2000 and 2019, from 31% (95% UI 28-34) to 30% (27-33), while in pregnant women aged 15-49 years it decreased from 41% (39-43) to 36% (34-39). In 2019, the prevalence of anaemia in children aged 6-59 months exceeded 70% in 11 countries and exceeded 50% in all women aged 15-49 years in ten countries. Globally in all populations and in most countries and regions, the prevalence of mild anaemia changed little, while moderate and severe anaemia declined in most populations and geographical locations, indicating a shift towards mild anaemia. INTERPRETATION: Globally, regionally, and in nearly all countries, progress on anaemia in women aged 15-49 years is insufficient to meet the WHA global nutrition target to halve anaemia prevalence by 2030, and the prevalence of anaemia in children also remains high. A better understanding of the context-specific causes of anaemia and quality implementation of effective multisectoral actions to address these causes are needed. FUNDING: USAID, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Systematic bias in real-world tonometry readings based on laterality?

AIMS: In research settings, the first eye examined tends to have a higher intraocular pressure (IOP) than the second. We sought to verify whether clinicians in Yorkshire, UK, measure IOP in right eyes before left and whether such behavioural factors affect IOP readings at the population level. METHODS: We observed 128 IOP measurements taken by 28 ophthalmologists using Goldmann applanation tonometry (GAT) over a 4-month period in 2018, recording which eye was examined first. All IOP measurements on electronic patient records for Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, UK, between January 2002 and June 2017 were extracted, yielding IOP readings for 562,360 eyes, analysed for evidence of systematic bias in IOP measurement. RESULTS: Right eye IOP was measured before left in 112/128 observations (87.5% (95% CI: 75.2%-94.2%)). For IOP measured by GAT, there was no statistically significant difference (p = 0.121) between right and left eye IOP (mean IOP 16.95 and 16.96 mmHg, respectively). Even values of IOP were reported more frequently than odd values (136,503/214,628 (63.6%) were even). Identical IOP readings for both eyes were recorded in 124,392/254,380 patients (48.9%) who had both eyes measured. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found no IOP difference based on laterality, but strong evidence of certain trends associated with IOP measurement by GAT, such as a preference for even values and the same IOP being recorded for both left and right eyes. Such effects may be explained by behavioural aspects of GAT and suggest that there are substantial opportunities for improvement in the way GAT is utilised in real world settings

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in sub-Saharan Africa in 2015: magnitude, temporal trends and projections

Background This study aimed to assess the prevalence and causes of vision loss in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2015, compared with prior years, and to estimate expected values for 2020. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the prevalence of blindness (presenting distance visual acuity <3/60 in the better eye), moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting distance visual acuity <6/18 but ≥3/60) and mild vision impairment (MVI; presenting distance visual acuity <6/12 and ≥6/18), and also near vision impairment (<N6 or N8 in the presence of ≥6/12 best-corrected distance visual acuity) in SSA for 1990, 2010, 2015 and 2020. In SSA, age-standardised prevalence of blindness, MSVI and MVI in 2015 were 1.03% (80% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.39–1.81), 3.64% (80% UI 1.71–5.94) and 2.94% (80% UI 1.05–5.34), respectively, for male and 1.08% (80% UI 0.40–1.93), 3.84% (80% UI 1.72–6.37) and 3.06% (80% UI 1.07–5.61) for females, constituting a significant decrease since 2010 for both genders. There were an estimated 4.28 million blind individuals and 17.36 million individuals with MSVI; 101.08 million individuals were estimated to have near vision loss due to presbyopia. Cataract was the most common cause of blindness (40.1%), whereas undercorrected refractive error (URE) (48.5%) was the most common cause of MSVI. Sub-Saharan West Africa had the highest proportion of blindness compared with the other SSA subregions. Conclusions Cataract and URE, two of the major causes of blindness and vision impairment, are reversible with treatment and thus promising targets to alleviate vision impairment in SSA

Prevalence and causes of blindness and vision impairment: magnitude, temporal trends and projections in South and Central Asia

BACKGROUND: To assess prevalence and causes of vision loss in Central and South Asia. METHODS: A systematic review of medical literature assessed the prevalence of blindness (presenting visual acuity<3/60 in the better eye), moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity <6/18 but ≥3/60) and mild vision impairment (MVI; presenting visual acuity <6/12 and ≥6/18) in Central and South Asia for 1990, 2010, 2015 and 2020. RESULTS: In Central and South Asia combined, age-standardised prevalences of blindness, MSVI and MVI in 2015 were for men and women aged 50+years, 3.72% (80% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.39-6.75) and 4.00% (80% UI: 1.41-7.39), 16.33% (80% UI: 8.55-25.47) and 17.65% (80% UI: 9.00-27.62), 11.70% (80% UI: 4.70-20.32) and 12.25% (80% UI:4.86-21.30), respectively, with a significant decrease in the study period for both gender. In South Asia in 2015, 11.76 million individuals (32.65% of the global blindness figure) were blind and 61.19 million individuals (28.3% of the global total) had MSVI. From 1990 to 2015, cataract (accounting for 36.58% of all cases with blindness in 2015) was the most common cause of blindness, followed by undercorrected refractive error (36.43%), glaucoma (5.81%), age-related macular degeneration (2.44%), corneal diseases (2.43%), diabetic retinopathy (0.16%) and trachoma (0.04%). For MSVI in South Asia 2015, most common causes were undercorrected refractive error (accounting for 66.39% of all cases with MSVI), followed by cataract (23.62%), age-related macular degeneration (1.31%) and glaucoma (1.09%). CONCLUSIONS: One-third of the global blind resided in South Asia in 2015, although the age-standardised prevalence of blindness and MSVI decreased significantly between 1990 and 2015

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in East Asia in 2015: magnitude, temporal trends and projections

BACKGROUND: To determine the prevalence and causes of blindness and vision impairment (VI) in East Asia in 2015 and to forecast the trend to 2020. METHODS: Through a systematic literature review and meta-analysis, we estimated prevalence of blindness (presenting visual acuity <3/60 in the better eye), moderate-to-severe vision impairment (MSVI; 3/60≤presenting visual acuity <6/18), mild vision impairment (mild VI: 6/18≤presenting visual acuity <6/12) and uncorrected presbyopia for 1990, 2010, 2015 and 2020. A total of 44 population-based studies were included. RESULTS: In 2015, age-standardised prevalence of blindness, MSVI, mild VI and uncorrected presbyopia was 0.37% (80% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.12%-0.68%), 3.06% (80% UI 1.35%-5.16%) and 2.65% (80% UI 0.92%-4.91%), 32.91% (80% UI 18.72%-48.47%), respectively, in East Asia. Cataract was the leading cause of blindness (43.6%), followed by uncorrected refractive error (12.9%), glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration, corneal diseases, trachoma and diabetic retinopathy (DR). The leading cause for MSVI was uncorrected refractive error, followed by cataract, age-related macular degeneration, glaucoma, corneal disease, trachoma and DR. The burden of VI due to uncorrected refractive error, cataracts, glaucoma and DR has continued to rise over the decades reported. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing the public healthcare barriers for cataract and uncorrected refractive error can help eliminate almost 57% of all blindness cases in this region. Therefore, public healthcare efforts should be focused on effective screening and effective patient education, with access to high-quality healthcare

Advances in exosome therapies in ophthalmology–From bench to clinical trial

During the last decade, the fields of advanced and personalized therapeutics have been constantly evolving, utilizing novel techniques such as gene editing and RNA therapeutic approaches. However, the method of delivery and tissue specificity remain the main hurdles of these approaches. Exosomes are natural carriers of functional small RNAs and proteins, representing an area of increasing interest in the field of drug delivery. It has been demonstrated that the exosome cargo, especially miRNAs, is at least partially responsible for the therapeutic effects of exosomes. Exosomes deliver their luminal content to the recipient cells and can be used as vesicles for the therapeutic delivery of RNAs and proteins. Synthetic therapeutic drugs can also be encapsulated into exosomes as they have a hydrophilic core, which makes them suitable to carry water-soluble drugs. In addition, engineered exosomes can display a variety of surface molecules, such as peptides, to target specific cells in tissues. The exosome properties present an added advantage to the targeted delivery of therapeutics, leading to increased efficacy and minimizing the adverse side effects. Furthermore, exosomes are natural nanoparticles found in all cell types and as a result, they do not elicit an immune response when administered. Exosomes have also demonstrated decreased long-term accumulation in tissues and organs and thus carry a low risk of systemic toxicity. This review aims to discuss all the advances in exosome therapies in ophthalmology and to give insight into the challenges that would need to be overcome before exosome therapies can be translated into clinical practice

Assessment of the proliferative, apoptotic and cellular renovation indices of the human mammary epithelium during the follicular and luteal phases of the menstrual cycle

Introduction During the menstrual cycle, the mammary gland goes through sequential waves of proliferation and apoptosis. in mammary epithelial cells, hormonal and non-hormonal factors regulate apoptosis. To determine the cyclical effects of gonadal steroids on breast homeostasis, we evaluated the apoptotic index ( AI) determined by terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP nick end labeling ( TUNEL) staining in human mammary epithelial cells during the spontaneous menstrual cycle and correlated it with cellular proliferation as determined by the expression of Ki-67 during the same period.Methods Normal breast tissue samples were obtained from 42 randomly selected patients in the proliferative ( n = 21) and luteal ( n = 21) phases. Menstrual cycle phase characterization was based on the date of the last and subsequent menses, and on progesterone serum levels obtained at the time of biopsy.Results the proliferation index ( PI), defined as the number of Ki-67-positive nuclei per 1,000 epithelial cells, was significantly larger in the luteal phase (30.46) than in the follicular phase (13.45; P = 0.0033). the AI was defined as the number of TUNEL-positive cells per 1,000 epithelial cells. the average AI values in both phases of the menstrual cycle were not statistically significant ( P = 0.21). However, the cell renewal index ( CRI = PI/AI) was significantly higher in the luteal phase ( P = 0.033). A significant cyclical variation of PI, AI and CRI was observed. PI and AI peaks occurred on about the 24th day of the menstrual cycle, whereas the CRI reached higher values on the 28th day.Conclusions We conclude that proliferative activity is dependent mainly on hormonal fluctuations, whereas apoptotic activity is probably regulated by hormonal and non-hormonal factors.Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Gyneol, Mastol Div, São Paulo, BrazilStanford Univ, Sch Med, Dept Neurosurg, Stanford, CA 94305 USAAPC Pathol, São Paulo, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Gyneol, Mastol Div, São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc