Prognostic value of disability on mortality: 15-year follow-up of the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging

BACKGROUND: Disability is a concern in the context of population ageing. The extent of an individual’s disability is a major determinant of whether or not they require long-term care or survival time. We investigated the effect of three disability domains as predictors of all-cause mortality over 15-year follow-up in a Brazilian socioeconomically disadvantaged and multiracial older adult population. METHODS: We estimated Cox proportional hazards models using data from 1333 community-dwelling individuals aged 60 and older from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Ageing. Disability was defined as a great difficulty or not being able to perform one and two or more activities in each domain: mobility, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and basic activities of daily living (BADL). RESULTS: The overall mortality rate was 46.1 per 1000 person-years at risk (pyrs) and it was higher in men. Among men, the fully adjusted Hazard Ratios (HRs) were 1.92 (95%CI: 1.43-2.58), 2.07 (95%CI: 1.53-2.79) and 1.65 (95%CI: 1.11-2.45), and among women 1.75 (95%CI: 1.38-2.21), 1.43 (95%CI: 1.11-1.84) and 1.43 (95%CI: 1.05-1.95), for two or more disability in mobility tasks, IADLs and BADLs, respectively, compared to those with no difficulty or some difficulty to perform all the tasks. CONCLUSION: A similar risk of death for mobility, IADL and BADL in both genders was found, suggesting that any of these domains can be used to identify risk of all-cause mortality among older adults. The number of activities with limitations in each domain was an important factor

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment

Background High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of populationbased health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the eff ects of risk factors on cause-specifi c mortality from metaanalyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for- each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the eff ects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specifi c population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specifi c deaths. We obtained cause-specifi c mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the fi nal estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10\ub78 million deaths, 95% CI 10\ub71\u201311\ub75) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined eff ect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7\ub71 million deaths, 6\ub76\u20137\ub76) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined eff ects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing eff ect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the globalresponse to non-communicable diseases

Physical activity and all-cause mortality among older Brazilian adults: 11-year follow-up of the Bambuí Health and Aging Study

Juciany RO Ramalho,1 Juliana VM Mambrini,1 Cibele C César,1,2 César M de Oliveira,3 Josélia OA Firmo,1 Maria Fernanda Lima-Costa,1 Sérgio V Peixoto1,4 1Rene Rachou Research Center, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, 2Department of Statistics, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; 3Research Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK; 4Nursing School, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil Objective: To investigate the association between physical activity (eg, energy expenditure) and survival over 11 years of follow-up in a large representative community sample of older Brazilian adults with a low level of education. Furthermore, we assessed sex as a potential effect modifier of this association.Materials and methods: A population-based prospective cohort study was conducted on all the ≥60-year-old residents in Bambuí city (Brazil). A total of 1,606 subjects (92.2% of the population) enrolled, and 1,378 (85.8%) were included in this study. Type, frequency, and duration of physical activity were assessed in the baseline survey questionnaire, and the metabolic equivalent task tertiles were estimated. The follow-up time was 11 years (1997–2007), and the end point was mortality. Deaths were reported by next of kin during the annual follow-up interview and ascertained through the Brazilian System of Information on Mortality, Brazilian Ministry of Health. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were estimated by Cox proportional-hazard models, and potential confounders were considered.Results: A statistically significant interaction (P<0.03) was found between sex and energy expenditure. Among older men, increases in levels of physical activity were associated with reduced mortality risk. The hazard ratios were 0.59 (95% CI 0.43–0.81) and 0.47 (95% CI 0.34–0.66) for the second and third tertiles, respectively. Among older women, there was no significant association between physical activity and mortality.Conclusion: It was possible to observe the effect of physical activity in reducing mortality risk, and there was a significant interaction between sex and energy expenditure, which should be considered in the analysis of this association in different populations. Keywords: physical activity, mortality, sex, elderl

Does health status explain gender dissimilarity in healthcare use among older adults? Estado de saúde explica a disparidade entre mulheres e homens idosos no uso da assistência?

This study investigates the extent to which gender dissimilarity in healthcare use in later life is explained by variation in health and social-economic statuses. It is based on a nationwide sample in Brazil of 12,757 men and 16,186 women aged 60+ years. Individuals with great difficulties or unable to perform at least one daily living activity and/or to walk 100m were classified as "established disability". Those who had interrupted their activities in the previous 15 days because of a health problem were regarded as "temporarily disabled". The remaining we classified as "healthy". These categories were analyzed by multinomial logistic regression, taking "healthy" as the reference category. Prevalences of established disability were 6% among men and 11% among women. Temporary disabilities were 7.9% and 10.1%, respectively. Poor health status was associated with increased use of healthcare among men and women, but men and women differed significantly in relation to use pattern after adjustment for age, health status, and income. Older women were greater consumers of outpatient services and older men of inpatient care.<br>O presente trabalho investiga diferenciais de gênero na condição de saúde de idosos e examina se desigualdades de gênero na utilização de serviços de saúde são explicadas pela condição de saúde ou sócio-econômica dos mesmos. Foram estudados 12.725 homens e 16.186 mulheres com 60+ anos, participantes da PNAD 1998. Idosos com grande dificuldade/incapazes de realizar uma/mais atividades da vida diária e/ou andar mais de 100m foram classificados como incapacitados, aqueles que interromperam atividades nos últimos 15 dias por problemas de saúde, como temporariamente incapacitados, e demais, como saudáveis. Utilizou-se regressão logística multinomial (referência: indivíduos saudáveis). A prevalência de homens e mulheres incapacitados foi 6% e 11%, temporariamente incapacitados, 7,9% e 10,1% respectivamente. Pior condição de saúde está associada ao maior uso serviços de saúde, mas padrão de utilização é significativamente diferente entre ambos, independente da idade, condição de saúde ou nível de renda. Idosas apresentaram mais consulta médica, e idosos, mais internações. Identificamos diferenciais de gênero no padrão de utilização de serviços de saúde que não são explicados pela idade, condição de saúde ou sócio-econômica