Impact of an integrated community-based model of care for older people with complex conditions on hospital emergency presentations and admissions: a step-wedged cluster randomized trial

Background: Health systems must reorient towards preventative and co-ordinated care to reduce hospital demand and achieve positive and fiscally responsible outcomes for older persons with complex needs. Integrated care models can improve outcomes by aligning primary practice with the specialist health and social services required to manage complex needs. This paper describes the impact of a community-facing program that integrates care at the primary-secondary interface on the rate of Emergency Department (ED) presentation and hospital admissions among older people with complex needs. Methods: The Older Persons Enablement and Rehabilitation for Complex Health Conditions (OPEN ARCH) study is a multicentre randomised controlled trial with a stepped wedge cluster design. General practitioners (GPs; n = 14) in primary practice within the Cairns region are considered ‘clusters’ each comprising a mixed number of participants. 80 community-dwelling persons over 70 years of age if non-Indigenous and over 50 years of age if Indigenous were included at baseline with no new participants added during the study. Clusters were randomly assigned to one of three steps that represent the time at which they would commence the OPEN ARCH intervention, and the subsequent intervention duration (3, 6, or 9 months). Each participant was its own control. GPs and participants were not blinded. The primary outcomes were ED presentations and hospital admissions. Data were collected from Queensland Health Casemix data and analysed with multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regression modelling to estimate the effectiveness of the OPEN ARCH intervention. Data were analysed at the cluster and participant levels. Results: Five clusters were randomised to steps 1 and 2, and 4 clusters randomised to step 3. All clusters (n = 14) completed the trial accounting for 80 participants. An effect size of 9% in service use (95% CI) was expected. The OPEN ARCH intervention was found to not make a statistically significant difference to ED presentations or admissions. However, a stabilising of ED presentations and a trend toward lower hospitalisation rates over time was observed. Conclusions: While this study detected no statistically significant change in ED presentations or hospital admissions, a plateauing of ED presentation and admission rates is a clinically significant finding for older persons with complex needs. Multi-sectoral integrated programs of care require an adequate preparation period and sufficient duration of intervention for effectiveness to be measured

Anaemia in early childhood among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children of Far North Queensland: a retrospective cohort study

Objective: Early childhood anaemia affects health and neurodevelopment. This study describes anaemia among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children of Far North Queensland. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used health information for children born between 2006 and 2010 and their mothers. We describe the incidence of early childhood anaemia and compare characteristics of children and mothers where the child had anaemia with characteristics of children and mothers where the child did not have anaemia using bivariate and multivariable analysis, by complete case (CC) and with multiple imputed (MI) data. Results: Among these (n=708) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children of Far North Queensland, 61.3% (95%CI 57.7%, 64.9%) became anaemic between the ages of six and 23 months. Multivariable analysis showed a lower incidence of anaemia among girls (CC/MI p<0.001) and among children of Torres Strait Islander mothers or both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mothers (CC/MI p<0.001) compared to children of Aboriginal mothers. A higher incidence of anaemia was seen among children of mothers with parity three or more (CC/MI p<0.001); children born by caesarean section (CC/MI p<0.001); and children with rapid early growth (CC/MI p<0.001). Conclusion: Early childhood anaemia is common among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children of Far North Queensland. Poor nutrition, particularly iron deficiency, and frequent infections are likely causes. Implications for public health: Prevention of early childhood anaemia in ‘Close the Gap’ initiatives would benefit the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children of Far North Queensland – and elsewhere in northern Australia

Preventable hospitalisations in regional Queensland: potential for primary health?

Objective The aims of this study were to: (1) use local health data to examine potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPHs) as a proportion of total hospital separations and estimated costs to a large regional hospital in northern Queensland, including differences associated with Indigenous status; and (2) identify priority conditions and discuss issues related to strategic local primary health intervention. Methods A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using Queensland Hospital Admitted Patient Data Collection data (July 2012–June 2014) restricted to 51 087 separations generated by 29 485 local residents. PPHs were identified from the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) and procedure codes using National Healthcare Agreement definitions. Age-standardised separation rates were calculated using Australian 2001 reference population and associated economic costs were estimated using Australian-refined diagnosis related groups. Results Eleven per cent (n = 5488) of all hospital separations were classified as PPH, and most were for common chronic (n = 2486; 45.3%) and acute (n = 2845; 51.8%) conditions. Because many acute presentations reflect chronic underlying disease, chronic conditions account for up to 76.5% of all PPHs. Age-standardised PPH rates were 3.4-fold higher for Indigenous than non-Indigenous people. Associated 2-year costs were AU$32.7 million, which was 10.7% of estimated total health care expenditure for hospital separations, and were higher for Indigenous (14.9%) than non-Indigenous (9.7%) people. Conclusions High hospitalisation rates and costs for common preventable chronic conditions represent opportunities for primary healthcare interventions. In particular, community-level health services need to be more responsive to the needs of local Indigenous families

Cost-effectiveness of a community-based integrated care model compared with usual care for older adults with complex needs: a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

Objective: To assess the cost of implementation, delivery and cost-effectiveness (CE) of a flagship community-based integrated care model (OPEN ARCH) against the usual primary care. Design: A 9-month stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial. Setting and participants: Community-dwelling older adults with chronic conditions and complex care needs were recruited from primary care (14 general practices) in Far North Queensland, Australia. Methods: Costs and outcomes were measured at 3-month windows from the healthcare system and patient’s out-of pocket perspectives for the analysis. Outcomes included functional status (Functional Independence Measure (FIM)) and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-3L and AQoL-8D). Bayesian CE analysis with 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations was performed using the BCEA package in R (V.3.6.1). Results: The OPEN ARCH model of care had an average cost of $A1354 per participant. The average age of participants was 81, and 55 effect measures regardless of the analytical perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 10 000 simulations showed that OPEN ARCH could be recommended over usual care for improving functional independence at a willing to pay above$A600 (US$440) per improvement of one point on the FIM Scale and for avoiding or reducing inpatient stay for any willingness-to-pay threshold up to$A50 000 (US$36 500). Conclusions and implications: OPEN ARCH was associated with a favourable Bayesian CE profile in improving functional status and dependency levels, avoiding or reducing inpatient stay compared with usual primary care in the Australian context

Acceptability and usability of computerized cognitive assessment among Australian Indigenous residents of the Torres Strait Islands

Objectives: This cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the acceptability and usability of the Cogstate Brief Battery (CBB) in a community-based sample of Australian Indigenous people from the Torres Strait region, based on a user experience framework of human-computer interaction. Methods: Two-hundred community participants completed the four subtests of the CBB on an iPad platform, during a free adult health check on two islands in the region, between October and December 2016. Acceptability was defined as completing the learning trial of a task and usability as continuing a task through to completion, determined by examiner acumen and internal Cogstate completion and integrity criteria. These were combined into a single dichotomous completion measure for logistic regression analyses. Performance-measured as reaction times and accuracy of responses-was analyzed using linear regression analyses. Results: CBB completion ranged from 82.0% to 91.5% across the four tasks and the odds of completing decreased with age. After adjusting for age, iPad/tablet familiarity increased the odds of completion for all tasks while level of education and employment increased the odds for some tasks only. These variables accounted for 18.0%-23.8% of the variance in reaction times on speeded tasks. Age and education had the most effect, although semipartial correlations were modest. Conclusions: When administered in a health-screening context, the acceptability and usability of the CBB were greatest in young- to middle-aged participants with some education and iPad/tablet experience. Older and more vulnerable participants may have benefited from additional time and practice on the CBB prior to administration

Using health check data to understand risks for dementia and cognitive impairment among Torres Strait Islander and Aboriginal peoples in northern Queensland—a data linkage study

Objective: High rates of dementia are evident in First Nations populations, and modifiable risk factors may be contributing to this increased risk. This study aimed to use a longitudinal dataset to gain insights into the long-term risk and protective factors for dementia and cognitive impairment not dementia (CIND) in a Torres Strait Islander and Aboriginal population in Far North Queensland, Australia. Study Design and Setting: Probabilistic data linkage was used to combine baseline health check data obtained in 1998/2000 and 2006/2007 for 64 residents in remote communities with their results on a single dementia assessment 10–20 years later (2015–2018). The relationship between earlier measures and later CIND/dementia status was examined using generalized linear modeling with risk ratios (RRs). Due to the small sample size, bootstrapping was used to inform variable selection during multivariable modeling. Results: One third of participants (n = 21, 32.8%) were diagnosed with dementia (n = 6) or CIND (n = 15) at follow-up. Secondary school or further education (RR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.19–0.76, p = 0.006) and adequate levels of self-reported physical activity (RR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.13–0.52, p < 0.001) were repeatedly selected in bootstrapping and showed some evidence of protection against later CIND/dementia in final multivariate models, although these had moderate collinearity. Vascular risk measures showed inconclusive or unexpected associations with later CIND/dementia risk. Conclusions: The preliminary findings from this small study highlighted two potential protective factors for dementia that may be present in this population. A tentative risk profile for later CIND/dementia risk is suggested, although the small sample size limits the applicability of these findings

Using health check data to investigate cognitive function in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders living with diabetes in the Torres Strait, Australia

Background: Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) has a subtle deleterious effect on cognition and imposes a higher lifetime risk of cognitive impairment and dementia. In populations where both T2DM and dementia are highly prevalent, understanding more about the early effects of T2DM on cognition may provide insights into the lifetime risks of this disease. Methods: In 2016, 186 Australian Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander residents of the Torres Strait (54% female, mean age =8.9 years, SD =15.9, range =15–74) participated in a community health check. The effect of diabetes (Type 1 or Type 2) on speed of thinking and working memory was assessed with the Cogstate Brief Battery (CBB) during the health check. Results: One third of participants had diabetes (n = 56, 30.1%). After adjusting for age, education and previous iPad/Tablet experience, participants with diabetes had a small, yet significant reduction in accuracy on the One Back working memory task (β = −.076, p =.010, r2 =.042). The effect was most pronounced among participants with diabetes aged 20–49 years (n = 20), who also had evidence of poorer diabetes control (eg HbA1c% ≥6.5, 76.6%), relative to participants with diabetes aged 50 years and over (n = 31) (HbA1c% ≥6.5, 32.0%, p =.005). Conclusions: Early and subtle decrements in working memory may be a potential complication of diabetes among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander residents of the Torres Strait. Several potentially influential variables were not captured in this study (eg medication and diabetes duration). Greater preventative health resources are required for this population, particularly given the emerging elevated dementia rates linked to chronic disease

Suitability of the German version of the Manchester Triage System to redirect emergency department patients to general practitioner care: a prospective cohort study

Objectives: To investigate the suitability of the German version of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) as a potential tool to redirect emergency department (ED) patients to general practitioner care. Such tools are currently being discussed in the context of reorganisation of emergency care in Germany. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Single centre University Hospital Emergency Department. Participants: Adult, non-surgical ED patients. Exposure: A non-urgent triage category was defined as a green or blue triage category according to the German version of the MTS. Primary and secondary outcome measures: Surrogate parameters for short-term risk (admission rate, diagnoses, length of hospital stay, admission to the intensive care unit, in-hospital and 30-day mortality) and long-term risk (1-year mortality). Results: A total of 1122 people presenting to the ED participated in the study. Of these, 31.9% (n= 358) received a non-urgent triage category and 68.1% (n= 764) were urgent. Compared with non-urgent ED presentations, those with an urgent triage category were older (median age 60 vs 56 years, p= 0.001), were more likely to require hospital admission (47.8% vs 29.6%) and had higher inhospital mortality (1.6% vs 0.8%). There was no significant difference observed between non-urgent and urgent triage categories for 30-day mortality (1.2% [n= 4] vs 2.2% [n= 15]; p= 0.285) or for 1-year mortality (7.9% [n= 26] vs 10.5% [n= 72]; p= 0.190). Urgency was not a significant predictor of 1-year mortality in univariate (HR= 1.35; 95% CI 0.87 to 2.12; p= 0.185) and multivariate regression analyses (HR= 1.20; 95% CI 0.77 to 1.89; p= 0.420). Conclusions: The results of this study suggest the German MTS is unsuitable to safely identify patients for redirection to non-ED based GP care

Hair cortisol, allostatic load, and depressive symptoms in Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people

Chronic stress and adversity are associated with poor mental health and are thought to contribute to the existing mental health gap between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and other Australians. Hair cortisol and allostatic load (AL) are indices of sustained stress and may be mediators of the effects of stress on health. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hair cortisol, AL, and depressive symptoms. This cross-sectional study comprised 329 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adolescents and adults recruited at two health screening programs operating in three communities in north Queensland. We measured hair cortisol and calculated an AL index from 10 biomarkers. We assessed depressive symptoms with a version of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 adapted for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (aPHQ-9). We found differences in cortisol and AL between the screening programs and communities, which were not explained by depressive symptoms. Overall aPHQ-9 scores were unrelated to hair cortisol (p = .25 and p = .94) and AL (p = .30 and p = .88) when age, gender and smoking were taken into account. However, anhedonia (p = .007) and insomnia (p = .006) sub-scores were each significantly associated with AL in one study site. Our present data did not demonstrate overall associations of stress biomarkers and multisystem dysregulation with depressive symptoms, which suggests that the relationship between cumulative stress and depression may be better explained by other factors in this population. The specific association between anhedonia and insomnia with AL indicates that chronic multisystem dysregulation plays a role in these features of depression in this population

Dementia Risk Models in an Australian First Nations Population: Cross-Sectional Associations and Preparation for Follow-Up

Background: Reducing the burden of dementia in First Nations populations may be addressed through developing population specific methods to quantify future risk of dementia. Objective: To adapt existing dementia risk models to cross-sectional dementia prevalence data from a First Nations population in the Torres Strait region of Australia in preparation for follow-up of participants. To explore the diagnostic utility of these dementia risk models at detecting dementia. Methods: A literature review to identify existing externally validated dementia risk models. Adapting these models to cross-sectional data and assessing their diagnostic utility through area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analyses and calibration using Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi2. Results: Seven risk models could be adapted to the study data. The Aging, Cognition and Dementia (AgeCoDe) study, the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), and the Brief Dementia Screening Indicator (BDSI) had moderate diagnostic utility in identifying dementia (i.e., AUROC >0.70) before and after points for older age were removed. Conclusion: Seven existing dementia risk models could be adapted to this First Nations population, and three had some cross-sectional diagnostic utility. These models were designed to predict dementia incidence, so their applicability to identify prevalent cases would be limited. The risk scores derived in this study may have prognostic utility as participants are followed up over time. In the interim, this study highlights considerations when transporting and developing dementia risk models for First Nations populations