An Estimated DSGE Model for Sweden with a Monetary Regime Change

Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a small open economy model for Sweden. We explicitly account for a monetary regime change from an exchange rate target zone to flexible exchange rates with explicit inflation targeting. In each of these regimes, we analyze the behavior of the monetary authority and the relative contribution to the business cycle of structural shocks in detail. Our results can be summarized as follows. Monetary policy is mainly concerned with stabilizing the exchange rate in the target zone and with price stability in the inflation targeting regime. Expectations of realignment and the risk premium are the main sources of volatility in the target zone period. In the inflation targeting period, monetary shocks are important sources of volatility in the short run, but in the long run, labor supply and preference shocks become relatively more important. Foreign shocks are much more destabilizing under the target zone than under inflation targeting.Bayesian estimation; DSGE models; target zone; inflation targeting; regime change

Monetary regime change and business cycles

This paper analyzes to what extent changes in monetary policy regimes influence the business cycle in a small open economy and investigates the impact of policy breaks on the estimation procedure. We estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model on Swedish data, explicitly taking into account the monetary regime change in 1993, from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting. The results suggest that monetary policy reacted strongly to exchange rate movements in the former, and mostly to inflation in the latter. The external sector plays an important role in the economy, and the international transmission mechanism is significantly affected by the choice of exchange rate regime. A counterfactual experiment that applies the inflation targeting policy rule on the disturbances from the exchange rate targeting period suggests that such a policy would have led to higher output and employment, but also to a depreciated currency, higher inflation, and a more volatile economy. We also present evidence that ignoring the break in the estimation leads to spurious results for both the parameters associated with monetary policy as well as those that are policy-independent

Do central banks react to house prices?

The substantial fluctuations in house prices recently experienced by many industrialized economies have stimulated a vivid debate on the possible implications for monetary policy. In this paper, we ask whether the U.S. Fed, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England have reacted to house prices. We study the responses of these central banks by estimating a structural model for each country where credit constrained agents borrow against real estate. The main result is that house price movements did play a separate role in the U.S., U.K.. and Japanese central bank reaction functions

Equilibrium asset prices and the wealth distribution with inattentive consumers

This paper studies the effects of heterogeneity in planning propensity on wealth inequality and asset prices. I consider an economy populated by "attentive" and "inattentive" agents. Attentive agents plan their consumption period by period, while inattentive agents plan every other period. Infrequent planning increases uncertainty concerning future income or future asset returns. In general equilibrium, inattentive consumers trade at unfavorable prices. If the only source of uncertainty is future income, inattentive consumers will still accumulate more wealth. In contrast, in a version of the model driven by uncertain asset returns, infrequent planning produces the opposite result: inattentive investors accumulate less wealth, in line with empirical evidence. Moreover, asset prices are much more volatile than in a representative agent model with full attention, because changes in asset prices must induce attentive consumers to voluntarily bear the burden of adjusting to aggregate shocks.Inattentiveness; Infrequent Planning; Heterogeneous Agents

Inattention, wealth inequality and equilibrium asset prices

Heterogeneity in planning propensity affects wealth inequality and asset prices. This paper presents an economy where attentive agents plan their consumption period by period, while inattentive agents plan every other period. Inattentive consumers face more uncertainty and trade at unfavorable prices. If the only source of uncertainty is future income, inattentive consumers accumulate more wealth. In contrast, with uncertain asset returns inattentive investors accumulate less wealth. Asset prices must induce attentive consumers to voluntarily bear the burden of adjusting to aggregate shocks and, as a result, are much more volatile than in a representative agent model with full attention.

An Estimated DSGE Model for Sweden with a Monetary Regime Change

Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a small open economy model for Sweden. We explicitly account for a monetary regime change from an exchange rate target zone to flexible exchange rates with explicit targeting. In each of these regimes, we analyze the behavior of the monetary authority and the relative contribution to the business cycle of structural shocks in detail. Our results can be summarized as follows. Monetary policy is mainly concerned with stabilizing the exchange rate in the target zone and with price stability in the inflation targeting regime. Expectations of realignment and the risk premium are the main sources of volatility in the target zone period. In the inflation targeting period, monetary shocks are important sources of volatility in the short run, but in the long run, labor supply and preference shocks become relatively more important. Foreign shocks are much more destabilizing under the target zone than under inflation targeting

Monetary regime change and business cycles

This paper analyzes how changes in monetary policy regimes influence the business cycle in a small open economy. We estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model on Swedish data, explicitly taking into account the 1993 monetary regime change, from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting. The results confirm that monetary policy reacted primarily to exchange rate movements in the target zone and to inflation in the inflation-targeting regime. Devaluation expectations were the principal source of volatility in the target zone period. In the inflation-targeting period, labor supply and preference shocks have become relatively more important.Business cycles ; Monetary policy ; Foreign exchange rates ; Inflation (Finance) ; Equilibrium (Economics) ; Stochastic analysis ; Econometric models

Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles

This paper analyzes to what extent changes in monetary policy regimes influence the business cycle in a small open economy and investigates the impact of policy breaks on the estimation procedure. We estimate a DSGE model on Swedish data, explicitly taking into account the monetary regime change in 1993, from exchange rate targeting to inflation targeting. The results suggest that monetary policy reacted strongly to exchange rate movements in the former, and mostly to inflation in the latter. The external sector plays an important role in the economy and the international transmission mechanism is significantly affected by the choice of exchange rate regime. A counterfactual experiment that applies the inflation targeting policy rule on the disturbances from the exchange rate targeting period suggests that such a policy would have led to higher output and employment, but also to a depreciated currency, higher inflation and a more volatile economy. We also show evidence that ignoring the break in the estimation leads to spurious results for both the parameters associated with monetary policy as well as those that are policy-independent.Bayesian estimation; DSGE models; target zone; inflation targeting; regime change