Electoral surveys influence on the voting processes: a cellular automata model

Nowadays, in societies threatened by atomization, selfishness, short-term thinking, and alienation from political life, there is a renewed debate about classical questions concerning the quality of democratic decision-making. In this work a cellular automata (CA) model for the dynamics of free elections based on the social impact theory is proposed. By using computer simulations, power law distributions for the size of electoral clusters and decision time have been obtained. The major role of broadcasted electoral surveys in guiding opinion formation and stabilizing the ``{\it status quo}'' was demonstrated. Furthermore, it was shown that in societies where these surveys are manipulated within the universally accepted statistical error bars, even a majoritary opposition could be hindered from reaching the power through the electoral path.Comment: 15 pages, 9 figure

Use of floating PV plants for coordinated operation with hydropower plants: Case study of the hydroelectric plants of the Sao Francisco River basin

[EN] In recent years, the Brazilian electricity sector has seen a considerable reduction in hydroelectric production and an increase in dependence on the complementation of thermoelectric power plants to meet the energy demand. This issue has led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, which has intensified climate change and modified rainfall regimes in several regions of the country, as well as increased the cost of energy. The use of floating PV plants in coordinated operation with hydroelectric plants can establish a mutual compensation between these sources and replace a large portion of the energy that comes from thermal sources, thereby reducing the dependence on thermoelectric energy for hydropower complementation. Thus, this paper presents a procedure for technically and economically sizing floating PV plants for coordinated operation with hydroelectric plants. A case study focused on the hydroelectric plants of the Sao Francisco River basin, where there has been intense droughts and increased dependence on thermoelectric energy for hydropower complementation. The results of the optimized design show that a PV panel tilt of approximately 3 degrees can generate energy at the lowest cost (from R $298.00/MWh to R$312.00/MWh, depending on the geographical location of the FLOATING PV platform on the reservoir). From an energy perspective, the average energy gain generated by the hydroelectric plant after adding the floating PV generation was 76%, whereas the capacity factor increased by 17.3% on average. In terms of equivalent inflow, the PV source has a seasonal profile that compliments the natural inflow of the river. Overall, the proposed coordinated operation could replace much of the thermoelectric generation in Brazil.The authors would like to thank the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, CNPq; in Portuguese) for granting a productivity in research scholarship to Prof. Regina Mambeli Barros (PQ2, Process number: 301986/2015-0) and Prof. Geraldo Lúcio Tiago Filho and to the Brazilian Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Capes; in Portuguese) for granting the Master of Science scholarship to Naidion Motta Silvério and the Doctorate scholarship to Ivan Felipe da Silva dos Santos.Silverio, N.; Barros, R.; Tiago Filho, GL.; Redón-Santafé, M.; Silva Dos Santos, IF.; De Mello Valerio, VE. (2018). Use of floating PV plants for coordinated operation with hydropower plants: Case study of the hydroelectric plants of the Sao Francisco River basin. Energy Conversion and Management. 171:339-349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2018.05.095S33934917

Modeling body size evolution in Felidae under alternative phylogenetic hypotheses

The use of phylogenetic comparative methods in ecological research has advanced during the last twenty years, mainly due to accurate phylogenetic reconstructions based on molecular data and computational and statistical advances. We used phylogenetic correlograms and phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) to model body size evolution in 35 worldwide Felidae (Mammalia, Carnivora) species using two alternative phylogenies and published body size data. The purpose was not to contrast the phylogenetic hypotheses but to evaluate how analyses of body size evolution patterns can be affected by the phylogeny used for comparative analyses (CA). Both phylogenies produced a strong phylogenetic pattern, with closely related species having similar body sizes and the similarity decreasing with increasing distances in time. The PVR explained 65% to 67% of body size variation and all Moran's I values for the PVR residuals were non-significant, indicating that both these models explained phylogenetic structures in trait variation. Even though our results did not suggest that any phylogeny can be used for CA with the same power, or that “good” phylogenies are unnecessary for the correct interpretation of the evolutionary dynamics of ecological, biogeographical, physiological or behavioral patterns, it does suggest that developments in CA can, and indeed should, proceed without waiting for perfect and fully resolved phylogenies