Assessment of risk due to the use of carbon fiber composites in commercial and general aviation

The development of a national risk profile for the total annual aircraft losses due to carbon fiber composite (CFC) usage through 1993 is discussed. The profile was developed using separate simulation methods for commercial and general aviation aircraft. A Monte Carlo method which was used to assess the risk in commercial aircraft is described. The method projects the potential usage of CFC through 1993, investigates the incidence of commercial aircraft fires, models the potential release and dispersion of carbon fibers from a fire, and estimates potential economic losses due to CFC damaging electronic equipment. The simulation model for the general aviation aircraft is described. The model emphasizes variations in facility locations and release conditions, estimates distribution of CFC released in general aviation aircraft accidents, and tabulates the failure probabilities and aggregate economic losses in the accidents

An assessment of the risk arising from electrical effects associated with carbon fibers released from commercial aircraft fires

The risks associated with electrical effects arising from carbon fibers released from commercial aviation aircraft fires were estimated for 1993. The expected annual losses were estimated to be about $470 (1977 dollars) in 1993. The chances of total losses from electrical effects exceeding$100,000 (1977 dollars) in 1993 were established to be about one in ten thousand

A comparison of estimators for the two-point correlation function

Nine of the most important estimators known for the two-point correlation function are compared using a predetermined, rigorous criterion. The indicators were extracted from over 500 subsamples of the Virgo Hubble Volume simulation cluster catalog. The ``real'' correlation function was determined from the full survey in a 3000Mpc/h periodic cube. The estimators were ranked by the cumulative probability of returning a value within a certain tolerance of the real correlation function. This criterion takes into account bias and variance, and it is independent of the possibly non-Gaussian nature of the error statistics. As a result for astrophysical applications a clear recommendation has emerged: the Landy & Szalay (1993) estimator, in its original or grid version Szapudi & Szalay (1998), are preferred in comparison to the other indicators examined, with a performance almost indistinguishable from the Hamilton (1993) estimator.Comment: aastex, 10 pages, 1 table, 1 figure, revised version, accepted in ApJ

Experimental study of ion heating and acceleration during magnetic reconnection

Ion heating and acceleration has been studied in the well-characterized reconnection layer of the Magnetic Reconnection Experiment [M. Yamada , Phys. Plasmas 4, 1936 (1997)]. Ion temperature in the layer rises substantially during null-helicity reconnection in which reconnecting field lines are anti-parallel. The plasma outflow is sub-Alfvenic due to a downstream back pressure. An ion energy balance calculation based on the data and including classical viscous heating indicates that ions are heated largely via nonclassical mechanisms. The T-i rise is much smaller during co-helicity reconnection in which field lines reconnect obliquely. This is consistent with a slower reconnection rate and a smaller resistivity enhancement over the Spitzer value. These observations show that nonclassical dissipation mechanisms can play an important role both in heating the ions and in facilitating the reconnection process

High resolution charge-exchange spectroscopic measurements of aluminum impurity ions in a high temperature plasma

Charge-exchange recombination spectroscopy, which is generally used to measure low-Z impurities in fusion devices, has been used for measuring Al+11 and Al+13 impurities in the Madison Symmetric Torus reversed field pinch. To obtain the impurity ion temperature, the experimental emission spectrum is fitted with a model which includes fine structure in the atomic transition. Densities of these two ionization states, calculated from charge-exchange emission brightness, are used in combination with a collisional radiative model to estimate the abundance of all other charge states of aluminum in the plasma and the contribution of aluminum to the effective ionic charge of the plasma

Assessment of Resilience in Desalination Infrastructure Using Semi-Markov Models

As the supply of desalinated water becomes significant in many countries, the reliable long-term operation of desalination infrastructure becomes paramount. As it is not realistic to build desalination systems with components that never fail, instead the system should be designed with more resilience. To answer the question how resilient the system should be, we present in this paper a quantitative approach to measure system resilience using semi-Markov models. This approach allows to probabilistically represent the resilience of a desalination system, considering the functional or failed states of its components, as well as the probability of failure and repair rates. As the desalination plants are connected with the end-user through water transportation and distribution networks, this approach also enables an evaluation of various network configurations and resilience strategies. A case study addressing a segment of the water system in Saudi Arabia is given with the results, benefits, and limitations of the technique discussed.Center for Complex Engineering Systems at MIT and KACSTUnited States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Space Technology Research Fellowship, grant number NNX14AM42H