AN ANALYSIS OF THE IMPORTANCE OF AGRICULTURE AND THE FOOD SECTOR TO THE MICHIGAN ECONOMY

The number of workers on farms and in food processing represents about 16 percent of total employment in basic industries in Michigan. Converting farm labor to full time equivalents, however, reduces the proportion to about 11 percent. The industries dependent upon agriculture and food processing enhance the importance of this sector. Adding backward linked industries increases the total employment from about 100 thousand to 200 thousand and output from $15 billion to$27 billion. If Michigan agriculture's share of the forward linked industries of wholesaling and retailing is added, total employment related directly or indirectly to farming and food processing is estimated to be 500 thousand and output to be $37 billion. In terms of employment, this represents a ratio of nearly 10 jobs for every full time equivalent in farming or about 5 jobs for every employee in the combination of agriculture and food processing. The total direct and related employment in agriculture and the food system is about 1 million, about a fourth of total employment in the state. Not only does agriculture and food processing have a major presence in the state, this sector contributes to the stability of an economy heavily dependent on the manufacture of durable goods which are vulnerable to business cycles. Food processing tends to be located near metropolitan areas, facilitating employment shifts. Similarly, the proximity of alternative employment opportunities provides stability for households involved in agriculture and food processing. While gross farm income and expenditures have increased in nominal terms, trends in the 1980s and 1990s have been stable or negative in real terms. Real net farm income declined in the 1990s. However, both nominal and real farmland prices increased in the same period, a paradox reflecting a robust non-farm economy and the close rural-urban interface. Value added by Michigan food processors increased over time in both nominal and real terms until a reversal in the 1990s. Employment in food processing continued a secular decline at the close of the decade.Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Modeling the U.S. Domestic Livestock Feed Sector in a Period of Rapidly Expanding By-Product Feed Supplies from Ethanol Production

Rapidly expanding ethanol production in the U.S. was given further impetus with the passage of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 mandating a minimum production of 7.5 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2012. The availability of the by-product feeds of ethanol production (corn gluten feed and meal and DDG) has not only become a significant share of the protein feed sector, but also the increase has been and will be extensive. The challenge is how to incorporate these feeds into econometric models of U.S. agriculture and measure their impact on the utilization of other feeds, particularly coarse grain and soybean meal. Another task is to forecast prices on the by-product feeds. This paper suggests a couple of procedures embracing the entire sector of livestock concentrates, including both protein and energy feeds. The feeds were converted into protein equivalents and energy equivalents and introduced into regression equations predicting (1) the amounts of soybean meal and coarse grain fed and (2) the amount of protein feeds utilized in protein equivalents and the amount of all concentrate feeds utilized in energy equivalents. In case (2), the amounts of soybean meal and coarse grain fed were derived by deducting the protein and energy equivalents of the other feeds from the totals predicted. This case was the one selected to be incorporated into AGMOD, an econometric model of U.S. agriculture. To forecast prices on the by-product feeds of ethanol production, synthetic prices for protein and energy were derived from prices on soybean meal and corn. Applying these prices to the ethanol byproduct feeds, values for these feeds were generated. These values were the major explanatory variables associated with the by-product prices supplemented by variables representing the ratios of the utilization of the respective feeds in protein equivalents to the total utilization of protein feeds in protein equivalents. Prices on corn gluten feed and DDG have been declining relative to their values, with continued downward pressure in prospect for prices on DDG in the next 10 years.Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Forecasting World Crop Yields as Probability Distributions

Traditionally, agricultural forecasts, whether for the coming year or several years into the future, have been based on assumptions of normal weather and trend crop yields. That weather is seldom normal and that yields seldom fit trends are well recognized. However, relatively little attention has been given to projecting crop yields stochastically even though computer capacity and software programs are available to do so. One reason is that the task is more challenging than to assign standard deviations to various crop yields and simulate normal distributions using random number generators. For one, deviations of crop yields from trends may be correlated especially if the locations of the crops overlap such as is the case with US corn and soybeans. To model US agriculture, those correlations must be taken into account. Secondly, deviations of crop yields from trends may not be normal. Typically, crop yield deviations are skewed to the low side, with yields lower in poor crop years than higher in favorable crop years. This paper demonstrates how computer software programs can be used to generate probability distributions of yields taking into consideration correlations among crops and non-normality in distributions. Included are thirteen crops and crop aggregates with global coverage of coarse grains, wheat and oilseeds. Probability forecasts are made for 2006 and illustrated for US corn, soybeans and wheat.Crop yields Crop yield correlations, Stochastic forecasting Econometric modeling, Non-normal crop yield distribution Risk assessment, Crop Production/Industries, C6, Q11,

The USDA/Land Grant Extension Outlook Program -- A History and Assessment

Base Document for a Power-Point Presentation Extension Section and Senior Section Track Session AAEA Centennial ThemeTeaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Agriculture as a source of fuel prospects and impacts, 2007 to 2017

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF AN INCREASE IN FUEL-ETHANOL DEMAND ON AGRICULTURE AND THE ECONOMY

Fuel ethanol demand is projected to increase because of proposed ban on methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) in gasoline, renewable fuels standard, and the revised eight-hour ozone standards. In this paper, several scenarios of increased fuel ethanol demand and its effects on crop and feed prices, farm income and state finances under current tax-subsidy structure, are analyzed using a multi-sector econometric model AGMOD.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Trends in Real Food Prices in Six Sub-Saharan African Countries

Demand and Price Analysis, Downloads July 2008-July 2009: 12,

Cultural Beliefs and Understandings of Cervical Cancer among Mexican Immigrant Women in Southeast Georgia

Rural Mexican immigrant women in the U.S. are infrequently screened and experience health disparities from cervical cancer. We explored cancer-related cultural beliefs in this population. We administered a cross-sectional survey to 39 Mexican immigrant women due for screening. We conducted univariate and bivariate analyses of participants’ characteristics, Pap test history, cancer-related knowledge and beliefs, and cultural consensus analysis about causes of cervical cancer and barriers to screening. For all the cultural consensus tasks, there was consensus (Eigenratios \u3e3:1) among survey participants. Comparing the rankings of risk factor clusters, clusters related to sexual behaviors were ranked more severely than clusters related to genetic or other behavioral factors. There was agreement on ideas of cervical cancer causation and barriers to screening among these women. Hence, improved methods of disseminating important health information and greater access to care are needed, particularly in relationship to stigma about sex and birth control practice

Transition from pediatric to adult renal services: a consensus statement by the International Society of Nephrology (ISN) and the International Pediatric Nephrology Association (IPNA)

The transfer of young patients from pediatric to adult renal care takes place after a transition process which involves both sides. It is important that it is individualized for each young person, focusing on self-management skills as well as assessing support structures. The consensus statement has been developed by the panel of adult and pediatric nephrologists and endorsed by the councils of both ISN and IPNA. It is hoped that the statement will provide a basis for the development of locally appropriate recommendations for clinical practice