Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues

Public attitudes that are in opposition to scientific consensus can be disastrous and include rejection of vaccines and opposition to climate change mitigation policies. Five studies examine the interrelationships between opposition to expert consensus on controversial scientific issues, how much people actually know about these issues, and how much they think they know. Across seven critical issues that enjoy substantial scientific consensus, as well as attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines and mitigation measures like mask wearing and social distancing, results indicate that those with the highest levels of opposition have the lowest levels of objective knowledge but the highest levels of subjective knowledge. Implications for scientists, policymakers, and science communicators are discussed

Genetic architecture of laterality defects revealed by whole exome sequencing

Aberrant left-right patterning in the developing human embryo can lead to a broad spectrum of congenital malformations. The causes of most laterality defects are not known, with variants in established genes accounting for <20% of cases. We sought to characterize the genetic spectrum of these conditions by performing whole-exome sequencing of 323 unrelated laterality cases. We investigated the role of rare, predicted-damaging variation in 1726 putative laterality candidate genes derived from model organisms, pathway analyses, and human phenotypes. We also evaluated the contribution of homo/hemizygous exon deletions and gene-based burden of rare variation. A total of 28 candidate variants (26 rare predicted-damaging variants and 2 hemizygous deletions) were identified, including variants in genes known to cause heterotaxy and primary ciliary dyskinesia (ACVR2B, NODAL, ZIC3, DNAI1, DNAH5, HYDIN, MMP21), and genes without a human phenotype association, but with prior evidence for a role in embryonic laterality or cardiac development. Sanger validation of the latter variants in probands and their parents revealed no de novo variants, but apparent transmitted heterozygous (ROCK2, ISL1, SMAD2), and hemizygous (RAI2, RIPPLY1) variant patterns. Collectively, these variants account for 7.1% of our study subjects. We also observe evidence for an excess burden of rare, predicted loss-of-function variation in PXDNL and BMS1- two genes relevant to the broader laterality phenotype. These findings highlight potential new genes in the development of laterality defects, and suggest extensive locus heterogeneity and complex genetic models in this class of birth defects

A Computational Approach to Analyze the Mechanism of Action of the Kinase Inhibitor Bafetinib

Prediction of drug action in human cells is a major challenge in biomedical research. Additionally, there is strong interest in finding new applications for approved drugs and identifying potential side effects. We present a computational strategy to predict mechanisms, risks and potential new domains of drug treatment on the basis of target profiles acquired through chemical proteomics. Functional protein-protein interaction networks that share one biological function are constructed and their crosstalk with the drug is scored regarding function disruption. We apply this procedure to the target profile of the second-generation BCR-ABL inhibitor bafetinib which is in development for the treatment of imatinib-resistant chronic myeloid leukemia. Beside the well known effect on apoptosis, we propose potential treatment of lung cancer and IGF1R expressing blast crisis

Causal models in prediction and diagnosis

Abstract not available

Sampling Assumptions and the Size Principle in Property Induction

The ‘size principle ’ emphasized in recent Bayesian models o

Do people understand the benefit of diversification?

Diversification—investing in imperfectly correlated assets—reduces volatility without sacrificing expected returns. Although the expected return of a diversified portfolio is the weighted average return of its constituent parts, the variance of the portfolio is less than the weighted average variance of its constituent parts. Our results suggest that very few people have correct statistical intuitions about the effects of diversification. The average person in our data sees no benefit of diversification in terms of reducing portfolio volatility. Many people, especially those low in financial literacy, believe diversification actually increases the volatility of a portfolio. These people seem to believe that the unpredictability of individual assets compounds when aggregated together. Additionally, most people believe diversification increases the expected return of a portfolio. Many of these people correctly link diversification with the concept of risk reduction but seem to understand risk reduction to mean greater returns on average. We show that these beliefs can lead people to construct investment portfolios that mismatch investors’ risk preferences. Furthermore, these beliefs may help explain why many investors are underdiversified

An illusion of control modulates the reluctance to tempt fate

The tempting fate effect is that the probability of a fateful outcome is deemed higher following an action that ``tempts'' the outcome than in the absence of such an action. In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the effect is due to an illusion of control induced by a causal framing of the situation. Causal frames require that the action make a difference to an outcome and that the action precedes the outcome. If an illusion of control modulates the reluctance to tempt fate, then actions that make a difference to well-being and that occur prior to the outcome should tempt fate most strongly. In Experiments 1--3 we varied whether the action makes a difference and the temporal order of action and outcome. In Experiment 4 we tested whether an action can tempt fate if all outcomes are negative. The results of all four experiments supported our hypothesis that the tempting fate effect depends on a causal construal that gives rise to a false sense of control