Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)

During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; October 2015&ndash;March 2017, held in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin area of eastern Washington and Oregon states), several improvements to the parameterizations used in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR &ndash; 3&thinsp;km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST &ndash; 750&thinsp;m horizontal grid spacing) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were tested during four 6-week reforecast periods (one for each season). For these tests the models were run in control (CNT) and experimental (EXP) configurations, with the EXP configuration including all the improved parameterizations. The impacts of the experimental parameterizations on the forecast of 80&thinsp;m wind speeds (wind turbine hub height) from the HRRR and HRRRNEST models are assessed, using observations collected by 19 sodars and three profiling lidars for comparison. Improvements due to the experimental physics (EXP vs. CNT runs) and those due to finer horizontal grid spacing (HRRRNEST vs. HRRR) and the combination of the two are compared, using standard bulk statistics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (bias). On average, the HRRR 80&thinsp;m wind speed MAE is reduced by 3&thinsp;%&ndash;4&thinsp;% due to the experimental physics. The impact of the finer horizontal grid spacing in the CNT runs also shows a positive improvement of 5&thinsp;% on MAE, which is particularly large at nighttime and during the morning transition. Lastly, the combined impact of the experimental physics and finer horizontal grid spacing produces larger improvements in the 80&thinsp;m wind speed MAE, up to 7&thinsp;%&ndash;8&thinsp;%. The improvements are evaluated as a function of the model's initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season of the year, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena. Causes of model weaknesses are identified. Finally, bias correction methods are applied to the 80&thinsp;m wind speed model outputs to measure their impact on the improvements due to the removal of the systematic component of the errors. </div

Lessons from Inter-Comparison of Decadal Climate Simulations and Observations for the Midwest U.S. and Great Lakes Region

Even with advances in climate modeling, meteorological impact assessment remains elusive, and decision-makers are forced to operate with potentially malinformed predictions. In this article, we investigate the dependence of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulated precipitation and temperature at 12- and 4-km horizontal resolutions and compare it with 32-km NARR data and 1/16th-degree gridded observations for the Midwest U.S. and Great Lakes region from 1991 to 2000. We used daily climatology, inter-annual variability, percentile, and dry days as metrics for inter-comparison for precipitation. We also calculated the summer and winter daily seasonal minimum, maximum, and average temperature to delineate the temperature trends. Results showed that NARR data is a useful precipitation product for mean warm season and summer climatological studies, but performs extremely poorly for winter and cold seasons for this region. WRF model simulations at 12- and 4-km horizontal resolutions were able to capture the lake-effect precipitation successfully when driven by observed lake surface temperatures. Simulations at 4-km showed negative bias in capturing precipitation without convective parameterization but captured the number of dry days and 99th percentile precipitation extremes well. Overall, our study cautions against hastily pushing for increasingly higher resolution in climate studies, and highlights the need for the careful selection of large-scale boundary forcing data

Separation of upslope flow over a plateau

A laboratory study was conducted in order to gain an understanding of thermal convection in a complex terrain that is characterized by a plateaued mountain. In particular, the separation of upslope (anabatic) flow over a two-dimensional uniform smooth slope, topped by a plateau, was considered. The working fluid was homogeneous water (neutral stratification). The topographic model was immersed in a large water tank with no mean flow. The entire topographic model was uniformly heated, and the width of the plateau, the slope angle, and the heating rate were varied. The upslope velocity field was measured by the Particle Tracking Velocimetry, aided by Feature Tracking Visualizations in order to detect the flow separation location. An analysis of the resulting flow showed a quantitative similarity to separating the upslope flow over steeper slopes, in the absence of a plateau when an effective angle that incorporates the normalized plateau width, the slope length, and the geometric slope angle, was used. Predictions for the dependence of the separation location and velocity on the geometry and heat flux were presented and compared with the existing data

A Case Study of the Nocturnal Boundary Layer Evolution on a Slope at the Foot of a Desert Mountain.

Observations were taken on an east-facing sidewall at the foot of a desert mountain that borders a large valley, as part of the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) field program at Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. A case study of nocturnal boundary layer development is presented for a night in mid-May when tethered-balloon measurements were taken to supplement other MATERHORN field measurements. The boundary layer development over the slope could be divided into three distinct phases during this night: 1) The evening transition from daytime upslope/up-valley winds to nighttime downslope winds was governed by the propagation of the shadow front. Because of the combination of complex topography at the site and the solar angle at this time of year, the shadow moved down the sidewall from approximately northwest to southeast, with the flow transition closely following the shadow front. 2) The flow transition was followed by a 3-4-h period of almost steady-state boundary layer conditions, with a shallow slope-parallel surface inversion and a pronounced downslope flow with a jet maximum located within the surface-based inversion. The shallow slope boundary layer was very sensitive to ambient flows, resulting in several small disturbances. 3) After approximately 2300 mountain standard time, the inversion that had formed over the adjacent valley repeatedly sloshed up the mountain sidewall, disturbing local downslope flows and causing rapid temperature drops