Wisdom of Crowds Detects COVID-19 Severity Ahead of Officially Available Data

During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation between geolocated Tweet Intensity of initial COVID-19 related tweet at the beginning of the pandemic across Italian, Spanish and USA regions and mortality in the region a month later. We find significant proportionality between early social media reaction and the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths almost a month later. Our findings suggest that "the crowds" perceived the risk correctly. This is one of the few examples where the "wisdom of crowds" can be quantified and applied in practice. This can be used to create real-time alert systems that could be of help for crisis-management and intervention, especially in developing countries. Such systems could contribute to inform fast-response policy making at early stages of a crisis.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, 3 table

Volcanic ash leaching as a means of tracing the environmental impact of the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption, Iceland

The Grímsvötn volcanic eruption, from 21 to 28 May, 2011, was the largest eruption of the Grímsvötn Volcanic System since 1873, with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of magnitude 4. The main geochemical features of the potential environmental impact of the volcanic ash-water interaction were determined using two different leaching methods as proxies (batch and vertical flow-through column experiments). Ash consists of glass with minor amounts of plagioclase, clinopyroxene, diopside, olivine and iron sulphide; this latter mineral phase is very rare in juvenile ash. Ash grain morphology and size reflect the intense interaction of magma and water during eruption. Batch and column leaching tests in deionised water indicate that Na, K, Ca, Mg, Si, Cl, S and F had the highest potential geochemical fluxes to the environment. Release of various elements from volcanic ash took place immediately through dissolution of soluble salts from the ash surface. Element solubilities of Grímsvötn ash regarding bulk ash composition were <1 %. Combining the element solubilities and the total estimated mass of tephra (7.29 × 1014 g), the total inputs of environmentally important elements were estimated to be 8.91 × 109 g Ca, 7.02 × 109 g S, 1.10 × 109 g Cl, 9.91 × 108 g Mg, 9.91 × 108 g Fe and 1.45 × 108 g P The potential environmental problems were mainly associated with the release of F (5.19 × 109 g)We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of ICTJA-CSIC labGEOTOP (infrastructure co-funded by ERDF-EU Ref. CSIC08-4E-001) and DRX (infrastructure co-funded by ERDF-EU Ref. CSIC10-4E-141) Surveys (J. Ibañez, J. Elvira and S. Alvarez) and the CCiTUB (SEM Unit) in the analytical work. Financial support was provided by the QUECA Project (MINECO, CGL2011-23307). We appreciate the invaluable comments of Dr. N. Olgun on a previous version of the manuscript. This study was carried out in the framework of the Research Consolidated Groups GEOPAM (Generalitat de Catalunya, 2014 SGR 869) and GEOVOL and the Associated Unit CSIC-UB UAGEPE (UA 285P01)Peer reviewe

Impacto ambiental de la interacción agua-ceniza en la erupción del 2011 del volcán Grimsvötn (Islandia)

The Grímsvötn volcanic eruption, from 21 to 28 May, 2011, was the largest eruption of the Grímsvötn Volcanic System since 1873. The main geochemical features of the potential environmental impact of the volcanic ash-water interaction were determined using two different leaching methods as proxies (batch and vertical flow through column experiments). The main findings reveal that Na, K, Ca, Mg, Si, Cl, S and F show the largest geochemical fluxes caused by the interaction of water and ash. Additionally, the significant amounts of some of these elements (Ca, S and Mg) together with P, Cl, Fe, which are usually considered as macro/micronutrients, demonstrates the fertilising potential of the May 2011 emitted ash. On the other hand, release of F highlights the possible environmental problems arising from ash fallout on land or into fresh water syste ms. It is noteworthy that the chemical release is maximal during the first few hours of contact between tephra and water due to the dissolution of soluble salts from the ash surface. As time progresses, these constituents are exhausted, the release drops considerably and elements are freed instead by the incongruent dissolution of the volcanic glass.Este trabajo ha sido financiado por el proyecto QUECA (MINECO, CGL2011-23307).Peer Reviewe

The ongoing volcanic eruption of El Hierro, Canary Islands

El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands (Spain), is no stranger to hazards associated with volcanic activity or to efforts to minimize the effects of these hazards on local communities. As early as 1793, administrative records of El Hierro indicate that a swarm of earthquakes was felt by locals; fearing a greater volcanic catastrophe, the first evacuation plan of an entire island in the history of the Canaries was prepared. The 1793 eruption was probably submarine with no appreciable consequences other than that the earthquakes were felt [Carracedo, 2008]; over the next roughly 215 years the island was seismically quiet. Yet seismic and volcanic activity are expected on this youngest Canary Island due to its being directly above the presumed location of the Canary Island hot spot, a mantle plume that feeds upwelling magma just under the surface, similar to the Hawaiian Islands. Because of this known geologic activity, the Spanish Instituto Geogrfco Nacional (IGN) has managed geophysical monitoring of the island since the beginning of the 1990s.Peer Reviewe

Caracterización geoquímica de los sedimentos de la red de drenaje del Rio Garona en la Val d'Aran (Catalunya, España).

A geochemical survey of stream sediments from the Garona River was performed in order to define the main regional lithogeochemical units and, based on this geochemical exploration study, to establish the reference levels of some chemical elements in the upper Garona River basin. The analysis of the lower grainsize fraction (˂180 μm) by HR-ICP-MS of 33 stream sediment samples allowed us establish reference levels for 48 elements. We have also studied the leachates of the sediments to model the environmentally available geochemical fraction. The trace elements with the lowest reference level, ranging between 10 and 50 mg/kg, are Th, Pr, Ga, Y, Ni, Pb, As, Cu, Zr, Li, Cr, Nd, La, and V. Instead, Zn, Rb, Sr, Ce and Ba show concentrations higher than 50 mg/kg. Some enrichments were observed in the streams sediments according to the three main litogeochemical units defined; the Maladeta-Marimanya granitoids (higher concentrations of Y, Th, Pb and U), the metasediments of an extensive area of the basin (enrichments in Pb, Sr and Sn), and the black shales (in Cu, U, Sr, Ni, Zn, V, Sb and Mo) which are present in local areas of the basin.SíPeer Reviewe

Los depósitos de ceniza volcánica del Pleistoceno Superior-Holoceno de la región de Tafí del Valle-Cafayate, noroeste de Argentina

[EN]We identified volcanic ash deposits, whose thickness can exceed sometimes the 4 m, in the southeastern margin of La Puna and neighbouring areas (Provinces of Tucuman and Salta, Argentina). These Late Pleistocene and Holocene deposits show the existence of a highly explosive volcanism only some few thousand years ago, without comparison with any historical volcanic episode in northwestern Argentina. We have characterized the size distribution of ash (laser diffraction), morphology of particles (SEM), mineralogy (XRD) and the geochemistry of major and trace elements in bulk sample using mass spectrometry (HR-ICP-MS). The information provided by these deposits is of great interest to size adequately the geochemical impact models of ashfall in future volcanic eruptions in the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes, quantifying the contribution of volcanic ash to the regional geochemical balances, both with respect to nutrients (e.g., Ca and Fe) and potentially toxic elements (e.g., As and F), among other elements of interest.[ES] Se han localizado diversos depósitos de ceniza volcánica, cuyos espesores llegan a superar en ocasiones los 4 m al suroeste de La Puna y áreas limítrofes (Provincias de Tucumán y Salta, Argentina). Estos depósitos son de edad Pleistoceno Superior y Holoceno y muestran la existencia hace pocos miles de años de volcanismo altamente explosivo, sin comparación con ningún episodio volcánico histórico en el noroeste de Argentina. Se han caracterizado la distribución granulométrica de la ceniza (difracción laser), la morfología de las partículas (microscopía electrónica de barrido), mineralogía (difracción de rayos X) y la geoquímica de elementos mayores y trazas en muestra total mediante espectrometría de masas (HR-ICP-MS). La información suministrada por estos depósitos tiene gran interés a la hora de dimensionar los modelos de impacto geoquímico de la caída de ceniza de futuras erupciones volcánicas en la Zona Volcánica Central de los Andes, cuantificando la contribución de la ceniza volcánica a los balances geoquímicos regionales, tanto por lo que respecta a nutrientes (p. ej., Ca y Fe), como de elementos potencialmente tóxicos (p. ej., As y F), entre otros elementos de interés.Agradecemos el apoyo técnico del labGEOTOP (infraestructura cofinanciada por FEDER, CSIC08-4E-001) del ICTJA-CSIC; de los Grupos PEGEFA (2009-SGR-972) y GEOVOL y fue financiado por el Proyecto QUECA (CGL2011-23307).Peer reviewe

Mineralogical characterization of silica sinters from the El Tatio geothermal field, Chile

11 páginas.Silica sinters, deposited from alkali chloride waters in the El Tatio geothermal field in northern Chile (22°20'S, 68°01'W), have been characterized by XRD, SEM, TG-DTA, and FTIR. The dominant silica phase is opal-A. Minor contents of opal-A/-CT and opal-CT are also present together with halite (NaCl), sylvite (KCl), and realgar (AsS). Accessory phases include teruggite [Ca4MgAs2B12O22(OH)12·12(H2O)], sassolite (H3BO3), and detrital quartz (SiO2). FWHM values reflect the immature nature of the studied opal-A. DTA heating experiments of opal-A show cristobalite crystallization at ~1000 °C, whereas DTA cooling experiments show the β -alfacristobalite transformation at ~200 °C. The total weight loss is related to changes in the sinter microtextures, mineral phases, and organic matter contents. FTIR spectra show the effects of silica maturation as consequence of the loss of trapped and absorbed water attached to silanols.Peer reviewe

Influencia de las condiciones experimentales en la determinación de S, Cl, Br y I en agua por espectrometría de masas de alta resolución (HR-ICP-MS)

A systematic study was undertaken to optimize a method to determine S, Cl, Br and I in water by high resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HR-ICP-MS). The sample composition and preparation conditions (the total dissolved solids -TDS-, the total organic compounds -TOC- and the addition of nitric acid) were evaluated to assess the sample matrix influence. Furthermore, the effect of instrumental parameters (carrier gas flow rate, sample flow rate, radiofrequency -RF- power and analyzer resolution) was also studied to minimize the contribution of polyatomic species, and to establish the required resolution. Low, medium or high resolutions were compared in terms of background level and sensitivity. After optimization, a multivariate robustness test was carried out by means of a Placket-Burman design. This method was applied to samples of the Llobregat and Ter rivers which are used for the drinking water system of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (~4.5 million inhabitants), Catalonia, northeast Spain.Este estudio fue financiado a través del Proyecto QUECA del Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad de España (CGL2011-23307) y el Proyecto PICT-2013-1259 (FONCyT, Argentina). Los análisis se realizaron en el Laboratorio de Geoquímica labGEOTOP en el ICTJA CSIC, infraestructura cofinanciada por FEDER-UE(Ref. CSIC08-4E-001).Peer Reviewe

Groundwater arsenic content in Raigón aquifer system (San José, Uruguay)

As a Medical Geology research issue, an environmental arsenic risk assessment study in the most important sedimentary aquifer in southern Uruguay is presented. The Raigón Aquifer System is the most exploited in Uruguay. It has a surface extent of about 1,800 square kilometres and 10,000 inhabitants in San Jose Department, where it was studied. Agriculture and cattle breeding are the main economic activities and this aquifer is the basic support. The groundwater sampling was done on 37 water samples of PRENADER (Natural Resources Management and Irrigation Development Program) wells. Outcropping sediments of Raigón Formation and the overlying Libertad Formation were also sampled in the Kiyú region. The analyses were performed by inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The results showed 80% samples with arsenic levels exceeding the 10 μg/l of WHO as limit for waters, and 11% exceeds the 20 μg/l limit of uruguayan regulation. The median, maximum and minimum water arsenic concentrations determined have been 14.24, 24.19 and 1.44 μg/l, respectively. On the other hand, nine sediment samples of Raigón and Libertad Formations in Kiyú region were analysed and yielded median, maximum and minimum arsenic concentrations of 5.03, 9.82 and 1.18 ppm, respectively. This issue leads to the supposition that the population, as well as industrial and agricultural activities, are consuming water with arsenic concentrations over the national and international maximum recommended limit.Como una aproximación a la Geología Médica en Uruguay se presentan los resultados de un estudio sobre el estado del Sistema Acuífero Raigón en relación a la presencia de arsénico, en el entendido que es el acuífero más explotado en el país. En particular, el área cubierta por este trabajo es de unos 1800 km2 en un territorio con una población de unos 10,000 habitantes en el departamento de San José. La colecta de aguas del acuífero se realizó en perforaciones de la base de datos de PRENADER (Proyecto de Manejo de Recursos Naturales y Desarrollo del Riego) obteniéndose 37 muestras, y sobre 9 muestras de sedimentos tanto de la Formación Raigón como la suprayacente Libertad en afloramientos de la región de Kiyú. Los análisis fueron realizados mediante ICP-MS. Un 80% de las muestras de aguas analizadas mostraron contenidos mayores a los límites de la OMS (10 μg/l) y un 11% de las muestras superaron el límite de la OSE (20 μg/l). El valor medio, máximo y mínimo determinado en el caso del agua subterránea fue de 14.24, 24.19 and 1.44 μg/l, respectivamente. Por otro lado, las nueve muestras de sedimentos analizados mostraron concentraciones media, máxima y mínima de arsénico de 5.03, 9.82 and 1.18 ppm, respectivamente, descartándose en principio un origen geogénico.Cooperation between the University of the Republic (Uruguay) and CSIC from Spain (Ref. 2005UY0001). DINACYT-Uruguay, Project of the Technological Development Program PDT # 45/14 which included the doctoral thesis work of MSc. Rosario Guerequiz. CYTED Iberoarsen Network and the International Medical Geology Association contributed with scientific and technical support to improve the knowledge on environmental arsenic and health impacts, with a multidisciplinary approach in Uruguay. This work was performed under the Research Consolidated Groups SGR-2005-795 PEGEFA (Petrology and Geochemistry Basic and Applied) and SGR-2005-00589 (Mineral Resources), funded by AGAUR-DURSI, Generalitat de Catalunya.Peer reviewe

Using Chemical Modeling to Asses Water Quality in the Raigón Aquifer System in Southern Uruguay

The Raigón aquifer is an important groundwater system in southern Uruguay. The increasing use of groundwater resources in the last decades has provoked changes in the concentration of many elements which are strongly related to anthropogenic pollution sources. Concentration levels are useful to detect changes in reservoir status but it is also necessary to analyze their chemical significance in order to make an accurate assessment of the sources of contamination and the causes of changes. In this work we use the available thermodynamic data to calculate chemical speciation on these groundwater samples. Trace elements present as anions, in particular Se and Mo, are especially focused to show the chemical modeling possibilities. Both elements form anionic species, predominantly MoO42- and SeO42-. Results show that these anions interact in solution and are greatly influenced by the concentration of the abundant calcium ion. Localized changes in pH can strongly affect the situation. The same is observed with the pE parameter, but only in the case of Se. Chemical speciation of trace elements is in general highly dependent on pH, pE and concentration of major elements. In consequence, for a fixed analytical total concentration, these parameters can markedly change the situation, affecting the mobility, the bioavailability and environmental fate of these elements. The strategy employed in this work can also be extended to the study of many other environmental water scenarios.The authors are grateful to CSIC (Programa de Apoyo a Grupos) and ANII (Project FCE_2011_6491), Uruguayan organizations, for financial support.Peer Reviewe