Ekonometrik modellerle enflasyon tahmini: Pakistan üzerine ampirik bir uygulama

This article aims at modeling and forecasting inflation in Pakistan. For this purpose a number of econometric approaches are implemented and their results are compared. In ARIMA models, adding additional lags for p and/or q necessarily reduced the sum of squares of the estimated residuals. When a model is estimated using lagged variables, some observations are lost. Results further indicate that the VAR models do not perform better than the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) models and, the two factor model with ARIMA (2, 1, 2) slightly performs better than the ARIMA (2, 1, 2). Although the study focuses on the problem of macroeconomic forecasting, the empirical results have more general implications for small scale macroeconometric models.Bu makale Pakistan’daki enflasyonu modellemeyi ve tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bunun için bir takım ekonometrik yaklaşımlar uygulanmış ve sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. ARIMA modellerinde p ve/veya q için fazladan gecikme eklenmesi, hesaplanan hata terimlerinin karelerinin toplamını her zaman azaltmadığı görülmüştür. Gecikmeli değerlerle bir model oluşturulduğunda ise bazı gözlemlerin kaybedildiği ortaya çıkmıştır. Sonuçlar ayrıca şunu göstermiştir ki VAR modelleri ARIMA (2,1,2) modellerinden daha iyi performans sergilememekte ve iki faktörlü ARIMA (2,1,2) modeli ARIMA (2,1,2) modelinden az da olsa daha iyi sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışma makroekonomik tahmin sorunu üzerine odaklanmasına rağmen elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar küçük ölçekli makro-ekonometrik modeller için daha genel implikasyonlar taşımaktadır

Forecasting Inflation Through Econometric Models : an Empirical Study on Pakistani Data

Bu makale Pakistan’daki enflasyonu modellemeyi ve tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bunun için bir takım ekonometrik yaklaşımlar uygulanmış ve sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. ARIMA modellerinde p ve/veya q için fazladan gecikme eklenmesi, hesaplanan hata terimlerinin karelerinin toplamını her zaman azaltmadığı görülmüştür. Gecikmeli değerlerle bir model oluşturulduğunda ise bazı gözlemlerin kaybedildiği ortaya çıkmıştır. Sonuçlar ayrıca şunu göstermiştir ki VAR modelleri ARIMA (2,1,2) modellerinden daha iyi performans sergilememekte ve iki faktörlü ARIMA (2,1,2) modeli ARIMA (2,1,2) modelinden az da olsa daha iyi sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışma makroekonomik tahmin sorunu üzerine odaklanmasına rağmen elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar küçük ölçekli makro-ekonometrik modeller için daha genel implikasyonlar taşımaktadır.This article aims at modeling and forecasting inflation in Pakistan. For this purpose a number of econometric approaches are implemented and their results are compared. In ARIMA models, adding additional lags for p and/or q necessarily reduced the sum of squares of the estimated residuals. When a model is estimated using lagged variables, some observations are lost. Results further indicate that the VAR models do not perform better than the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) models and, the two factor model with ARIMA (2, 1, 2) slightly performs better than the ARIMA (2, 1, 2). Although the study focuses on the problem of macroeconomic forecasting, the empirical results have more general implications for small scale macroeconometric models

Forecasting Inflation Through Econometric Models : an Empirical Study on Pakistani Data

Bu makale Pakistan’daki enflasyonu modellemeyi ve tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bunun için bir takım ekonometrik yaklaşımlar uygulanmış ve sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. ARIMA modellerinde p ve/veya q için fazladan gecikme eklenmesi, hesaplanan hata terimlerinin karelerinin toplamını her zaman azaltmadığı görülmüştür. Gecikmeli değerlerle bir model oluşturulduğunda ise bazı gözlemlerin kaybedildiği ortaya çıkmıştır. Sonuçlar ayrıca şunu göstermiştir ki VAR modelleri ARIMA (2,1,2) modellerinden daha iyi performans sergilememekte ve iki faktörlü ARIMA (2,1,2) modeli ARIMA (2,1,2) modelinden az da olsa daha iyi sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışma makroekonomik tahmin sorunu üzerine odaklanmasına rağmen elde edilen ampirik sonuçlar küçük ölçekli makro-ekonometrik modeller için daha genel implikasyonlar taşımaktadır.This article aims at modeling and forecasting inflation in Pakistan. For this purpose a number of econometric approaches are implemented and their results are compared. In ARIMA models, adding additional lags for p and/or q necessarily reduced the sum of squares of the estimated residuals. When a model is estimated using lagged variables, some observations are lost. Results further indicate that the VAR models do not perform better than the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) models and, the two factor model with ARIMA (2, 1, 2) slightly performs better than the ARIMA (2, 1, 2). Although the study focuses on the problem of macroeconomic forecasting, the empirical results have more general implications for small scale macroeconometric models

Flexible Resolution of Authorisation Conflicts in Distributed Systems

Flexible Resolution of Authorisation Conflicts in Distributed System

Role of pathophysiology of patellofemoral instability in the treatment of spontaneous medial patellofemoral subluxation: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Medial patellar subluxation is usually seen after lateral retinacular release. Spontaneous medial subluxation of the patella is a very rare condition. There are few reports in the literature on the pathophysiology of iatrogenic medial patellar subluxation. To our knowledge, there are no reports of the pathophysiology of non-iatrogenic medial patellar subluxation in the English literature. In this study we present a case of spontaneous medial patellar instability that is more prominent in extension during weight bearing. We also try to define the treatment protocol based on pathophsiology.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report the case of a 21-year-old Turkish man with spontaneous medial patellar instability. He had suffered right knee pain, clicking and popping sensation in the affected knee for three months prior to presentation. Clinical examination demonstrated medial patellar subluxation that is more prominent in extension during the weight bearing phase of gait and while standing. Increased medial tilt was observed when the patella was stressed medially. Conventional anterior to posterior, lateral and Merchant radiographs did not reveal any abnormalities. After three months of physical therapy, our patient was still suffering from right knee pain which disturbed his gait pattern. Throughout the surgery, medial patellar translation was tested following the imbrication of lateral structures. He still had a medial patellar translation that was more than 50% of his patellar width. Patellotibial ligament augmentation using an iliotibial band flap was added. When examined after surgery, the alignment of the patella was effectively corrected.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Chronic imbalance between the strengths of vastus lateralis and vastus medialis results in secondary changes in passive ligamentous structures and causes additional instability. Physical therapy modalities that aim to strengthen the vastus lateralis might be sufficient for the treatment of spontaneous medial instability. There would be no need for any surgical intervention if spontaneous medial instability was recognized before the additional instability occured. If necessary, lateral imbrication followed by lateral patellotibial ligament augmentation can be performed, and these would effectively correct spontaneous medial patellofemoral instability.</p

Religious affiliation modulates weekly cycles of cropland burning in Sub-Saharan Africa

Research ArticleVegetation burning is a common land management practice in Africa, where fire is used for hunting, livestock husbandry, pest control, food gathering, cropland fertilization, and wildfire prevention. Given such strong anthropogenic control of fire, we tested the hypotheses that fire activity displays weekly cycles, and that the week day with the fewest fires depends on regionally predominant religious affiliation.We also analyzed the effect of land use (anthrome) on weekly fire cycle significance. Fire density (fire counts.km-2) observed per week day in each region was modeled using a negative binomial regression model, with fire counts as response variable, region area as offset and a structured random effect to account for spatial dependence. Anthrome (settled, cropland, natural, rangeland), religion (Christian, Muslim, mixed) week day, and their 2-way and 3-way interactions were used as independent variables. Models were also built separately for each anthrome, relating regional fire density with week day and religious affiliation. Analysis revealed a significant interaction between religion and week day, i.e. regions with different religious affiliation (Christian, Muslim) display distinct weekly cycles of burning. However, the religion vs. week day interaction only is significant for croplands, i.e. fire activity in African croplands is significantly lower on Sunday in Christian regions and on Friday in Muslim regions. Magnitude of fire activity does not differ significantly among week days in rangelands and in natural areas, where fire use is under less strict control than in croplands. These findings can contribute towards improved specification of ignition patterns in regional/global vegetation fire models, and may lead to more accurate meteorological and chemical weather forecastinginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Threshold effect of foreign direct investment on environmental degradation

The aim of this paper is to investigate the threshold effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on environmental degradation. In empirical analysis, FDI and environmental degradation are jointly determined under the given threshold variable and other exogenous variables. Using carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita as a proxy for environmental degradation, the results show that increasing FDI worsens CO2 emissions after a threshold level of corruption has been reached. Our results demonstrate that increasing FDI will increase CO2 emissions when the degree of corruptibility is relatively high. The study suggests that further FDI and improved environmental quality are competing rather than compatible objectives in high-corruption countries and are compatible rather than competing objectives in low-corruption countries. Higher trade liberalization in low-corruption countries could contribute to negative environmental consequences because of the increased output or economic activity which results from increased trade. The robustness estimation confirms the evidence that pollution and economic development increase together up to a certain income level, after which the trend reverses.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Patterns of active and passive smoking, and associated factors, in the South-east Anatolian Project (SEAP) region in Turkey

BACKGROUND: Smoking is an important health threat in Turkey. This study aimed to determine the frequency of and main factors associated with smoking in persons of 15 years and over, and the frequency of passive smoking in homes in the South-east Anatolian Project (SEAP) Region in Turkey. METHODS: A cross sectional design was employed. The sample waschosen by the State Institute of Statistics using a stratified cluster probability sampling method. 1126 houses representing the SEAP Region were visited. Questionnaires about tobacco smoking and related factors were applied to 2166 women and 1906 men (of 15 years old and above) in their homes. Face-to-face interview methods were employed. Participants were classified as current, ex, and non-smokers. The presence of a regular daily smoker in a house was used as an indication of passive smoking. The chi-square andlogistic regressionanalysis methods were used for the statistical analysis. RESULTS: The prevalence of smoking, in those of 15 years and over, was 11.8% in women and 49.7% in men. The prevalence of current smokers was higher in urban (34.5 %) than in rural (22.8 %) regions. The mean of total cigarette consumption was 6.5 packs/year in women and 17.9 packs/year in men. There was at least one current smoker in 70.1% of the houses. CONCLUSION: Smoking is a serious problem in the South-eastern Anatolian Region. Male gender, middle age, a high level of education and urban residency were most strongly associated with smoking