Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all

BACKGROUND: Existing epidemiological models have largely tended to neglect the impact of individual behaviour on the dynamics of diseases. However, awareness of the presence of illness can cause people to change their behaviour by, for example, staying at home and avoiding social contacts. Such changes can be used to control epidemics but they exact an economic cost. Our aim is to study the costs and benefits of using individual-based social distancing undertaken by healthy individuals as a form of control.METHODS: Our model is a standard SIR model superimposed on a spatial network, without and with addition of small-world interactions. Disease spread is controlled by allowing susceptible individuals to temporarily reduce their social contacts in response to the presence of infection within their local neighbourhood. We ascribe an economic cost to the loss of social contacts, and weigh this against the economic benefit gained by reducing the impact of the epidemic. We study the sensitivity of the results to two key parameters, the individuals' attitude to risk and the size of the awareness neighbourhood.RESULTS: Depending on the characteristics of the epidemic and on the relative economic importance of making contacts versus avoiding infection, the optimal control is one of two extremes: either to adopt a highly cautious control, thereby suppressing the epidemic quickly by drastically reducing contacts as soon as disease is detected; or else to forego control and allow the epidemic to run its course. The worst outcome arises when control is attempted, but not cautiously enough to cause the epidemic to be suppressed. The next main result comes from comparing the size of the neighbourhood of which individuals are aware to that of the neighbourhood within which transmission can occur. The control works best when these sizes match and is particularly ineffective when the awareness neighbourhood is smaller than the infection neighbourhood. The results are robust with respect to inclusion of long-range, small-world links which destroy the spatial structure, regardless of whether individuals can or cannot control them. However, addition of many non-local links eventually makes control ineffective.CONCLUSIONS: These results have implications for the design of control strategies using social distancing: a control that is too weak or based upon inaccurate knowledge, may give a worse outcome than doing nothing

Considering Usual Medical Care in Clinical Trial Design

Liza Dawson and colleagues discuss the scientific and ethical issues associated with choosing clinical trial designs when there is no consensus on what constitutes usual care

Genome Wide Analysis of Drug-Induced Torsades de Pointes: Lack of Common Variants with Large Effect Sizes

Marked prolongation of the QT interval on the electrocardiogram associated with the polymorphic ventricular tachycardia Torsades de Pointes is a serious adverse event during treatment with antiarrhythmic drugs and other culprit medications, and is a common cause for drug relabeling and withdrawal. Although clinical risk factors have been identified, the syndrome remains unpredictable in an individual patient. Here we used genome-wide association analysis to search for common predisposing genetic variants. Cases of drug-induced Torsades de Pointes (diTdP), treatment tolerant controls, and general population controls were ascertained across multiple sites using common definitions, and genotyped on the Illumina 610k or 1M-Duo BeadChips. Principal Components Analysis was used to select 216 Northwestern European diTdP cases and 771 ancestry-matched controls, including treatment-tolerant and general population subjects. With these sample sizes, there is 80% power to detect a variant at genome-wide significance with minor allele frequency of 10% and conferring an odds ratio of ≥2.7. Tests of association were carried out for each single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) by logistic regression adjusting for gender and population structure. No SNP reached genome wide-significance; the variant with the lowest P value was rs2276314, a non-synonymous coding variant in C18orf21 (p  =  3×10(-7), odds ratio = 2, 95% confidence intervals: 1.5-2.6). The haplotype formed by rs2276314 and a second SNP, rs767531, was significantly more frequent in controls than cases (p  =  3×10(-9)). Expanding the number of controls and a gene-based analysis did not yield significant associations. This study argues that common genomic variants do not contribute importantly to risk for drug-induced Torsades de Pointes across multiple drugs

Effects of environmental Bisphenol A exposures on germ cell development and Leydig cell function in the human fetal testis

<div><p>Background</p><p>Using an organotypic culture system termed human Fetal Testis Assay (hFeTA) we previously showed that 0.01 μM BPA decreases basal, but not LH-stimulated, testosterone secreted by the first trimester human fetal testis. The present study was conducted to determine the potential for a long-term antiandrogenic effect of BPA using a xenograft model, and also to study the effect of BPA on germ cell development using both the hFETA and xenograft models.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Using the hFeTA system, first trimester testes were cultured for 3 days with 0.01 to 10 μM BPA. For xenografts, adult castrate male nude mice were injected with hCG and grafted with first trimester testes. Host mice received 10 μM BPA (~ 500 μg/kg/day) in their drinking water for 5 weeks. Plasma levels of total and unconjugated BPA were 0.10 μM and 0.038 μM respectively. Mice grafted with second trimester testes received 0.5 and 50 μg/kg/day BPA by oral gavage for 5 weeks.</p><p>Results</p><p>With first trimester human testes, using the hFeTA model, 10 μM BPA increased germ cell apoptosis. In xenografts, germ cell density was also reduced by BPA exposure. Importantly, BPA exposure significantly decreased the percentage of germ cells expressing the pluripotency marker AP-2γ, whilst the percentage of those expressing the pre-spermatogonial marker MAGE-A4 significantly increased. BPA exposure did not affect hCG-stimulated androgen production in first and second trimester xenografts as evaluated by both plasma testosterone level and seminal vesicle weight in host mice.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>Exposure to BPA at environmentally relevant concentrations impairs germ cell development in first trimester human fetal testis, whilst gonadotrophin-stimulated testosterone production was unaffected in both first and second trimester testis. Studies using first trimester human fetal testis demonstrate the complementarity of the FeTA and xenograft models for determining the respective short-term and long term effects of environmental exposures.</p></div

Drug-induced torsades de pointes and implications for drug development.

Torsades de pointes is a potentially lethal arrhythmia that occasionally appears as an adverse effect of pharmacotherapy. Recently developed understanding of the underlying electrophysiology allows better estimation of the drug-induced risks and explains the failures of older approaches through the surface ECG. This article expresses a consensus reached by an independent academic task force on the physiologic understanding of drug-induced repolarization changes, their preclinical and clinical evaluation, and the risk-to-benefit interpretation of drug-induced torsades de pointes. The consensus of the task force includes suggestions on how to evaluate the risk of torsades within drug development programs. Individual sections of the text discuss the techniques and limitations of methods directed at drug-related ion channel phenomena, investigations aimed at action potentials changes, preclinical studies of phenomena seen only in the whole (or nearly whole) heart, and interpretation of human ECGs obtained in clinical studies. The final section of the text discusses drug-induced torsades within the larger evaluation of drug-related risks and benefits