Heterogeneity among agent types and second-best management for non-market ecological services

Second-best management affects different agent types differently, and heterogeneity among agents may create instances when only second best management is feasible. Capital-theoretic bioeconomic modeling often has imposed representative agent assumptions that may not capture this heterogeneity. Interactions between agent heterogeneity and second-best management have received little attention. Such heterogeneity is particularly important when management actions do not directly affect extensive margin decisions. We employ a microparameter model in a dynamic bioeconomic model to incorporate agent heterogeneity and intensive and extensive margin decisions for a nonmarket good, recreational fishing. The model yields qualitatively different management recommendations when a representative agent is assumed than when heterogeneity is included using the microparameter approach.entry-exit, microparameter, bioeconomics, recreational fishing, landing limits, optimal control, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q20, Q22, Q26,

SPLIT-SAMPLE TESTS OF "DON'T KNOW" AND "INDIFFERENT" RESPONSES IN AN ATTRIBUTE BASED CHOICE MODEL

stated preference, contingent valuation, no opinion, internet survey, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Skip the Trip: Air Travelers’ Behavioral Responses to Pandemic Influenza

Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization’s FluNet data. We estimate that concern over ‘‘swine flu,’’ as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively) with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least $50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in selfprotection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication

The Allocation of Time and Risk of Lyme: A Case of Ecosystem Service Income and Substitution Effects

Forests are often touted for their ecosystem services, including outdoor recreation. Historically forests were a source of danger and were avoided. Forests continue to be reservoirs for infectious diseases and their vectors�a disservice. We examine how this disservice undermines the potential recreational services by measuring the human response to environmental risk using exogenous variation in the risk of contracting Lyme Disease. We find evidence that individuals substitute away from spending time outdoors when there is greater risk of Lyme Disease infection. On average individuals spent 1.54 fewer minutes per day outdoors at the average, 72 U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, confirmed cases of Lyme Disease. We estimate lost outdoor recreation of 9.41 h per year per person in an average county in the Northeastern United States and an aggregate welfare loss on the order $2.8 billion to$5.0 billion per year

CONTROLLING WILDLIFE AND LIVESTOCK DISEASE WITH ENDOGENOUS ON-FARM BIOSECURITY

The spread of infectious disease among and between wild and domesticated animals has become a major problem worldwide. We analyze the socially optimal management of wildlife and livestock, including choices involving environmental habitat variables and on-farm biosecurity controls, when wildlife and livestock can spread an infectious disease to each other. The model is applied to the problem of bovine tuberculosis among Michigan white-tailed deer. The optimum is a cycle in which the disease remains endemic in the wildlife, but in which the cattle herd is depleted when the prevalence rate in deer grows too large.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Understanding Rent Dissipation and Optimal Management in Recreational Fisheries: theory

Recreational fisheries are severely understudied by fisheries economists, in spite of their growing importance in the context of fisheries management. While recreational demand models have been extensively applied to recreational fisheries, they have rarely been successfully integrated with bioeconomic models to evaluate policy changes. Furthermore, theoretical models of open access behavior have presumed a process of rent dissipation that closely mimics models of the commercial fishery this despite the fact that there is serious cause to doubt the hypothesized mechanisms for such dissipation and the consistency of the underlying models with received consumer theory. Addressing these shortcomings is important as interest in adapting instruments designed for commercial fisheries to the recreational context increases. We remedy this gap by developing models of open access and optimal dynamic management of recreational fisheries that are consistent with current developments in recreational demand analysis. We incorporate a number of realistic aspects of the recreational context, namely: 1) the existence of multiple substitutable recreational sites of varying proximity and (endogenous) biological characteristics; 2) the ubiquity of (unobservable) angler heterogeneity in preferences; and 3) the potential for corner solutions (zero visitation) by some sub-population of potential anglers. Our model yields a number of insights concerning the nature of rent dissipation in recreational fisheries and how it is shaped (and limited) by factors such as the number of substitute sites and their spatial configuration and biological connectivity. Our modeling also calls into question the usefulness of a representative agent framework in bioeconomic models of optimal fishery management.Keywords: Valuing Recreational Fisheries and Modelling Human Responses to Changes in their Management Regimes, Fishery Management, Special Topics, Fisheries Economic

Dynamics of nearly inviscid Faraday waves in almost circular containers

Parametrically driven surface gravity-capillary waves in an elliptically distorted circular cylinder are studied. In the nearly inviscid regime, the waves couple to a streaming flow driven in oscillatory viscous boundary layers. In a cylindrical container, the streaming flow couples to the spatial phase of the waves, but in a distorted cylinder, it couples to their amplitudes as well. This coupling may destabilize pure standing oscillations, and lead to complex time-dependent dynamics at onset. Among the new dynamical behavior that results are relaxation oscillations involving abrupt transitions between standing and quasiperiodic oscillations, and exhibiting ‘canards’

Getting human behavior into epidemiology models

Infectious disease modeling efforts are emblematic of the challenges of modeling coupled human-environmental systems. These challenges exist conceptually, theoretically, and empirically, and are made more challenging by disciplinary norms. COVID-19 has pumped substantial amounts of energy into interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary approaches to epidemiological modeling. However, I see many of the over-simplifications, related to challenges we have struggled with for over 10 years, finding their way into high profile reports and publications that are guiding policy response. The challenges start with implicit disciplinary disagreement about what is being modeled and why. They are further complicated by scaling issues, which are tightly connected to disciplinary views of model assessment that point back to the reasons for modeling. In this talk, I will describe my lessons learned and outline a research program for couple human-epidemiological modeling going forward with the goal of providing insights for other human-environmental modeling and for public health.Non UBCUnreviewedAuthor affiliation: Yale UniversityFacult