Robust monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with imperfect interest rate pass-through

We use robust control to study how a central bank in an economy with imperfect interest rate pass-through conducts monetary policy if it fears that its model could be misspecified. The effects of the central bank's concern for robustness can be summarised as follows. First, depending on the shock, robust optimal monetary policy under commitment responds either more cautiously or more aggressively. Second, such robustness comes at a cost: the central bank dampens volatility in the inflation rate preemptively, but accepts higher volatility in the output gap and the loan rate. Third, if the central bank faces uncertainty only in the IS equation or the loan rate equation, the robust policy shifts its concern for stabilisation away from inflation. --optimal monetary policy,commitment,model uncertainty

More or less aggressive? Robust monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with financial distress

This paper investigates the optimal monetary policy response to a shock to collateral when policymakers act under discretion and face model uncertainty. The analysis is based on a New Keynesian model where banks supply loans to transaction constrained consumers. Our results confirm the literature on model uncertainty with respect to a cost-push shock. Insuring against model misspecification leads to a more aggressive policy response. The same is true for a shock to collateral. A preference for robustness leads to a more aggressive policy. Increasing the weight attached to interest rate smoothing raises the degree of aggressiveness. Our results indicate that a preference for robustness crucially depends on the way different types of disturbances affect the economy: in the case of a shock to collateral the policymaker does not need to be as much worried about model misspecification as in the case of a conventional cost-push shock. --Optimal monetary policy,discretion,model uncertainty,banking,collateral

Inflation Targeting und monetäre Integration in europäischen Schwellenländern

This study addresses the potential trade-off between inflation and exchange rate targeting in former transition countries, which now may be labeled emerging market economies and which prepare for entry into the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Among this group of countries, some implemented inflation targeting regimes. These countries may face increasing macroeconomic risks when entering the possibly insecure terrain of a soft peg in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM 2). Against this background, the study analyzes the choice of inflation targets using panel data techniques (Chapter 2), the (de facto) role of exchange rate policy in monetary strategies applying vector autoregressions (Chapter 3), and the potential costs of an additional exchange rate target under an intermediate exchange rate regime like ERM 2 in a new open economy macro model (Chapter 4)

Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation in Romania: A Decomposition

Why is inflation, 15 years after transition started, still considerably higher in Romania than in the eight EU member states (EU-8) that joined in May 2004? Panel estimation based on ten central and eastern European countries allows us to decompose the inflation differential between Romania and the EU-8. The decomposition suggests that neither the revenue, nor the balance of payments, nor the financial stability motive are driving inflation; rather structural differences are at play. The employment motive, together with indicators reflecting the prolonged structural change, explain most of the inflation gap vis-à-vis the EU-8.inflation, panel data, transition economics

Comparing Monetary Policy Strategies: Towards a Generalized Reaction Function

There seems to be no consensus in the literature with respect to monetary policy strategies in combination with flexible exchange rate regimes. Therefore, this paper determines what the alternative strategies inflation targeting, Taylor rule, monetary conditions index, and managed floating have in common. The fact that all strategies build on reaction functions which use the short-term interest rate as an important or even the single monetary policy instrument allows a generalized reaction function for all strategies to be derived. Future research may use such a generalized reaction function for describing and determining monetary policy in emerging market economies with flexible exchange rate regimes.Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting, Taylor Rule, Monetary Conditions Index, Managed Floating

What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?

Panel estimates based on 19 transition economies suggests that some central banks may aim at comparatively high inflation rates mainly to make up for, and to perhaps exploit, lagging internal and external liberalization in their economies. Out-of-sample forecasts, based on expected developments in the underlying structure of these economies, and assuming no changes in institutions, suggest that incentives may be diminishing, but not to the point where inflation levels below 5 percent could credibly be announced as targets. Greater economic liberalization would help reduce incentives for higher inflation, and enhancements to central bank independence could help shield these central banks from pressures.inflation, transition economies, panel data