Early-Stage Globalization and Corporate Debt Maturity: The Case of South Korea, 1980-94

Using data from publicly traded South Korean corporations for the period 1980-94, this paper finds evidence that increases in financial liberalization that accompanied the more general process of financial globalization have significantly reduced the maturity structure of corporate debt contracts, thus lending partial empirical support to the idea that financial liberalization can be well described as “short-term pain, long-term gain”. This effect of financial liberalization on corporate debt maturity is robust to changes in econometric specification, and does not seem to be counteracted by opposing forces that tended to lengthen the maturity of corporate debt during the same period.Globalization, corporate debt maturity, South Korea

A Reassessment of the Problems with Interest Targeting: What Have We Learned from Japanese Monetary Policy?

Interest rate targeting is widely used by central banks to pursue price stability; however, the variation in inflation policy outcomes between central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan despite a common policy instrument framework suggests interest- targeting has limitations. Despite the variation in policy outcomes, the role of targeting was enhanced with the advent of Taylor rules in the 1990s and interest rate targeting dominates central bank attitudes to the exclusion of any other policy instrument framework. The recent Japanese experience confronts us with the need to reassess the relative merits of interest targeting. This paper frames the discussion of the various problems of the interest-targeting framework within a model that encompasses a number of important previous results and stresses that interest rate targeting may leave the price level indeterminate in various plausible circumstances. In a low, or even zero interest rate environment, such as the one that characterized Japan, Taylor-type rules may offer no solution to the indeterminacy problem. The paper then discusses various aspects of the BoJ’s decision to adhere to interest rate targeting despite its limitations.Interest-targeting, Monetary Policy, Deflation, Japan

The Effect of Federal Government Size on Long-Term Economic Growth in the United States, 1792-2004

In this paper, we consider whether there is statistical evidence for a causal relationship between federal government expenditures and growth in real per-capita GDP in the United States, using available data going back to 1792. After studying the time-series properties of these variables for stationarity and cointegration, we investigate Granger causality in detail in the context of a Vector Error Correction Model. While we find causal evidence supporting Wagner’s Law, we find no evidence supporting the common assertion that a larger government sector leads to slower economic growth.long-term economic growth, federal government size, Wagner’s Law, United States, cointegration, Granger causality, vector autoregression, vector error correction model

The Effect of Government Purchases on Economic Growth in Japan

We consider whether there is statistical evidence for a causal relationship between government expenditures and real GDP growth in postwar Japan. After studying the time-series properties of these variables, we find that government consumption and government investment both have a positive and causal effect on growth. This suggests that fiscal policy may not have been as ineffective during the last two decades of Japan’s stagnant growth as some have suggested, but may have helped to prevent an even more severe balance-sheet recession after the collapse of the Japanese bubble economy.Long-term economic growth; Japan; Government size; Cointegration; Granger causality; Vector autoregression; Vector error correction model

Managing a 401(k) Account: An Experiment on Asset Allocation

The study reports the results of an asset allocation experiment in which subjects managed an endowment of money over a 20 "year" time period. While grounded in theory, the study takes an applied look at the ability of subjects to efficiently and effectively make asset allocation decisions similar to those found in 401(k) accounts. The main conclusions are as follows. First, efficient portfolios are more easily created when the set of assets to choose from is carefully constructed. Thus, financial engineers should be given the responsibility for choosing the assets available to plan participants and ensuring that combinations of these assets will fall on the efficient frontier. If followed, this advice would likely significantly reduce the amount of individual company stock offered in Defined Contribution (DC) plans in place of well-constructed low cost index funds from multiple asset classes. Second, if the assets selected for inclusion in DC plans allow the investor to easily create portfolios on the efficient frontier, then the challenge for the investor is not how to get onto the frontier but where to locate on it. The simplistic surveys that are commonly used by DC plan providers to determine risk tolerance and to recommend asset allocations are woefully inadequate for this task. More sophisticated and theoretically driven instruments must be created to educate investors on the risks and the benefits available at different points along the efficient frontier.401(k) accounts, asset allocation

A ‘Second-Best’ Rationale to Deflationary Monetary Policy in Japan

The Bank of Japan permitted a ten-year period of deflation (1995-2005) which appears to have ended in 2006. The deflation, as well as the preceding disinflation, adversely affected the financial and real sectors of the economy that in turn, made it difficult to recover from the collapse of asset prices in 1990 and 1991. Various ad hoc explanations have been offered to account for the deflation period. This paper offers a second-best explanation based on a two-player policy game between the Bank of Japan and the banking system in which the banking system relies on an accommodative policy of forgiveness and forbearance by the Ministry of Finance to deal with weak balance sheets. The paper does not explicitly model the Ministry of Finance preference function but incorporates the Bank of Japan’s perceived willingness of the Ministry to accommodate the banking system in the Bank’s reaction function. The model suggests that in the context of established deflationary expectations and large amounts of debt, the Bank of Japan explicitly regarded the level of debt as exceeding the socially optimal level, that Ministry of Finance forgiveness and forbearance contributed to this excess, and lacking an instrument to reverse deflationary expectations, the Bank of Japan employed deflation as a disciplining instrument to limit real debt.Monetary Policy, Deflation, Japan

Financial Liberalization and Corporate Debt Maturity in Thailand, 1993-97

Excessive short-term debt is thought to be one of the major causes of the Asian financial crisis, and this paper documents the changes in the maturity of corporate debt in Thailand during a period of rapid integration with international capital markets. Using data from publicly-traded Thai corporations for the period 1993-97, we find that the evidence is weak at best that financial liberalization brought about by globalization reduced the maturity of corporate debt contracts, and the evidence may in fact support an increase in maturity. This result casts some doubts on the generality of the idea that financial liberalization created the short-term debt problem.Globalization, financial liberalization, corporate debt maturity, Thailand

Las Relaciones UE-África y la futura asociación estratégica : realpolitik con piel de cordero

Hasta el 2005 no hubo demasiados avances, más allá de los constantes contactos que han ido manteniendo las Conferencias Ministeriales UE-África y la elaboración de una Comunicación por parte de la Comisión al respecto de dicho diálogo. Dicha Comunicación pretendía atenuar los efectos de la anulación de la Cumbre sobre el recién nacido diálogo político, ofreciendo una imagen de continuidad, así como analizar los avances del diálogo en los ocho temas prioritarios establecidos por el Plan de El Cairo. De entre estos temas destacaba, dentro del apartado dedicado a la integración regional, el inicio de las negociaciones sobre los polémicos Acuerdos de Asociación Económica (AAE) entre la UE y las diversas agrupaciones regionales de los países ACP (unos acuerdos que entrarán en vigor a partir del 2008 y que han suscitado críticas por parte de algunos sectores en base a los perniciosos efectos para las economías africanas que puede conllevar la liberalización comercial total con Europa).Fins al 2005 no hi va haver gaires avenços, més enllà dels constants contactes que han anat mantenint les Conferències Ministerials UE-Àfrica i l'elaboració d'una Comunicació per part de la Comissió al respecte d'aquest diàleg. Aquesta Comunicació pretenia atenuar els efectes de l'anul · lació de la Cimera sobre el recentment nascut diàleg polític, oferint una imatge de continuïtat, així com analitzar els avenços del diàleg en els vuit temes prioritaris establerts pel Pla del Caire. D'entre aquests temes destacava, dins de l'apartat dedicat a la integració regional, l'inici de les negociacions sobre els polèmics Acords d'Associació Econòmica (AAE) entre la UE i les diverses agrupacions regionals dels països ACP (uns acords que entraran en vigor a partir del 2008 i que han suscitat crítiques per part d'alguns sectors sobre la base dels perniciosos efectes per les economies africanes que pot comportar la liberalització comercial total amb Europa)

Long-Term Inflation Outcomes after Hyperinflation: Theory and Evidence

This paper does two things. First, it shows both anecdotal and cross-country evidence that indicates that countries that have experienced hyperinflation display significantly lower long-term rates of inflation than countries that lack the same experience. Secondly, it presents a model to rationalize the main empirical finding. There is more than one mechanism through which the long-term effects of hyperinflation may have an impact on long-term inflation outcomes. The suggested explanation this paper offers is that hyperinflations act by reducing the social costs of increasing the collection of conventional, distorsionary taxes relative to the collection of the inflation tax.Hyperinflations, monetary institutions, inflation, central banks