Bayesian Network Applications to Customer Surveys and InfoQ

AbstractModelling relationships between variables has been a major challenge for statisticians in a wide range of application areas. In conducting customer satisfaction surveys, one main objective, is to identify the drivers to overall satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) in order to initiate proactive actions for containing problems and/or improving customer satisfaction. Bayesian Networks (BN) combine graphical analysis with Bayesian analysis to represent relations linking measured and target variables. Such graphical maps are used for diagnostic and predictive analytics. This paper is about the use of BN in the analysis of customer survey data. We propose an approach to sensitivity analysis for identifying the drivers of overall satisfaction. We also address the problem of selection of robust networks. Moreover, we show how such an analysis generates high information quality (InfoQ) and can be effectively combined with an integrated analysis considering various models

Can Bayesian Network empower propensity score estimation from Real World Data?

A new method, based on Bayesian Networks, to estimate propensity scores is proposed with the purpose to draw causal inference from real world data on the average treatment effect in case of a binary outcome and discrete covariates. The proposed method ensures maximum likelihood properties to the estimated propensity score, i.e. asymptotic efficiency, thus outperforming other available approach. Two point estimators via inverse probability weighting are then proposed, and their main distributional properties are derived for constructing confidence interval and for testing the hypotheses of absence of the treatment effect. Empirical evidence of the substantial improvements offered by the proposed methodology versus standard logistic modelling of propensity score is provided in simulation settings that mimic the characteristics of a real dataset of prostate cancer patients from Milan San Raffaele Hospital

Coping Mechanisms, Psychological Distress, and Quality of Life Prior to Cancer Genetic Counseling

Background: Breast Cancer susceptibility genes 1 and 2 are implicated in hereditary breast and ovarian cancer and women can test for the presence of these genes prior to developing cancer. The goal of this study is to examine psychological distress, quality of life, and active coping mechanisms in a sample of women during the pre-test stage of the genetic counseling process, considering that pre-test distress can be an indicator of post-test distress. We also wanted to identify if subgroups of women, defined based on their health status, were more vulnerable to developing distress during the genetic counseling process.Methods: This study included 181 female participants who accessed a Cancer Genetic Counseling Clinic. The participants were subdivided into three groups on the basis of the presence of a cancer diagnosis: Affected patients, Ex-patients, and Unaffected participants. Following a self-report questionnaire, a battery of tests was administered to examine psychological symptomatology, quality of life, and coping mechanisms.Results: The results confirm that the genetic counseling procedure is not a source of psychological distress. Certain participants were identified as being more vulnerable than others; in the pre-test phase, they reported on average higher levels of distress and lower quality of life. These participants were predominantly Ex-patients and Affected patients, who may be at risk of distress during the counseling process.Conclusions: These findings highlight that individuals who take part in the genetic counseling process are not all the same regarding pre-test psychological distress. Attention should be paid particularly to Ex-patients and Affected patients by the multidisciplinary treating team

Abnormal neutrophil signature in the blood and pancreas of presymptomatic and symptomatic type 1 diabetes

BACKGROUND. Neutrophils and their inflammatory mediators are key pathogenic components in multiple autoimmune diseases, while their role in human type 1 diabetes (T1D), a disease that progresses sequentially through identifiable stages prior to the clinical onset, is not well understood. We previously reported that the number of circulating neutrophils is reduced in patients with T1D and in presymptomatic at-risk subjects. The aim of the present work was to identify possible changes in circulating and pancreas-residing neutrophils throughout the disease course to better elucidate neutrophil involvement in human T1D. METHODS. Data collected from 389 subjects at risk of developing T1D, and enrolled in 4 distinct studies performed by TrialNet, were analyzed with comprehensive statistical approaches to determine whether the number of circulating neutrophils correlates with pancreas function. To obtain a broad analysis of pancreas-infiltrating neutrophils throughout all disease stages, pancreas sections collected worldwide from 4 different cohorts (i.e., nPOD, DiViD, Siena, and Exeter) were analyzed by immunohistochemistry and immunofluorescence. Finally, circulating neutrophils were purified from unrelated nondiabetic subjects and donors at various T1D stages and their transcriptomic signature was determined by RNA sequencing. RESULTS. Here, we show that the decline in β cell function is greatest in individuals with the lowest peripheral neutrophil numbers. Neutrophils infiltrate the pancreas prior to the onset of symptoms and they continue to do so as the disease progresses. Of interest, a fraction of these pancreasinfiltrating neutrophils also extrudes neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), suggesting a tissue-specific pathogenic role. Whole-transcriptome analysis of purified blood neutrophils revealed a unique molecular signature that is distinguished by an overabundance of IFN-associated genes; despite being healthy, said signature is already present in T1D-autoantibody-negative at-risk subjects. CONCLUSIONS. These results reveal an unexpected abnormality in neutrophil disposition both in the circulation and in the pancreas of presymptomatic and symptomatic T1D subjects, implying that targeting neutrophils might represent a previously unrecognized therapeutic modality

Profiling Antibody Response Patterns in COVID-19: Spike S1-Reactive IgA Signature in the Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

This contribution explores in a new statistical perspective the antibody responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in 141 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients exhibiting a broad range of clinical manifestations. This cohort accurately reflects the characteristics of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy. We determined the IgM, IgA, and IgG levels towards SARS-CoV-2 S1, S2, and NP antigens, evaluating their neutralizing activity and relationship with clinical signatures. Moreover, we longitudinally followed 72 patients up to 9 months postsymptoms onset to study the persistence of the levels of antibodies. Our results showed that the majority of COVID-19 patients developed an early virus-specific antibody response. The magnitude and the neutralizing properties of the response were heterogeneous regardless of the severity of the disease. Antibody levels dropped over time, even though spike reactive IgG and IgA were still detectable up to 9 months. Early baseline antibody levels were key drivers of the subsequent antibody production and the long-lasting protection against SARS-CoV-2. Importantly, we identified anti-S1 IgA as a good surrogate marker to predict the clinical course of COVID-19. Characterizing the antibody response after SARS-CoV-2 infection is relevant for the early clinical management of patients as soon as they are diagnosed and for implementing the current vaccination strategies

Deepening Well-Being Evaluation with Different Data Sources: A Bayesian Networks Approach

In this paper, we focus on a Bayesian network s approach to combine traditional survey and social network data and official statistics to evaluate well-being. Bayesian networks permit the use of data with different geographical levels (provincial and regional) and time frequencies (daily, quarterly, and annual). The aim of this study was twofold: to describe the relationship between survey and social network data and to investigate the link between social network data and official statistics. Particularly, we focused on whether the big data anticipate the information provided by the official statistics. The applications, referring to Italy from 2012 to 2017, were performed using ISTAT’s survey data, some variables related to the considered time period or geographical levels, a composite index of well-being obtained by Twitter data, and official statistics that summarize the labor market