19 research outputs found
Response to Zöller et al.'s critique on "Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring"
Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring
Whether changes in animal behavior allow for shortâterm earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. Before, during and after the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we deployed bioâlogging tags to continuously observe the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, and sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (OctâNov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (JanâApr 2017). Relating 5,304 (in 2016) and 12,948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 †M †6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a building (stable), but not during their time on a pasture. We detected these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1â20 hr) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous bioâlogging of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of preâseismic activity that could yield valuable insights for shortâterm earthquake forecasting. Based on a priori model parameters, we provide empirical threshold values for preâseismic animal activities to be used in realâtime observation stations.publishe