Epidemic protection zones : centred on cases or based on connectivity?

When an exotic infectious disease invades a susceptible environment, protection zones are enforced. Historically, such zones have been shaped as circles of equal radius (ER), centred on the location of infected premises. Because the ER policy seems to assume that epidemic dissemination is driven by a similar number of secondary cases generated per primary case, it does not consider whether local features, such as connectivity, influence epidemic dispersal. Here we explored the efficacy of ER protection zones. By generating a geographically explicit scenario that mimicked an actual epidemic, we created protection zones of different geometry, comparing the cost-benefit estimates of ER protection zones to a set of alternatives, which considered a pre-existing connecting network (CN) – the road network. The hypothesis of similar number of cases per ER circle was not substantiated: the number of units at risk per circle differed up to four times among ER circles. Findings also showed that even a small area (of <115 km2) revealed network properties. Because the CN policy required 20% less area to be protected than the ER policy, and the CN-based protection zone included a 23.8% greater density of units at risk/km2 than the ER-based alternative, findings supported the view that protection zones are likely to be less costly and more effective if they consider connecting structures, such as road, railroad and/or river networks. The analysis of local geographical factors (contacts, vectors and connectivity) may optimize the efficacy of control measures against epidemics.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1865-1682ab2012ab2013 (Author correction

Connecting network properties of rapidly disseminating epizoonotics

BACKGROUND: To effectively control the geographical dissemination of infectious diseases, their properties need to be determined. To test that rapid microbial dispersal requires not only susceptible hosts but also a pre-existing, connecting network, we explored constructs meant to reveal the network properties associated with disease spread, which included the road structure. METHODS: Using geo-temporal data collected from epizoonotics in which all hosts were susceptible (mammals infected by Foot-and-mouth disease virus, Uruguay, 2001; birds infected by Avian Influenza virus H5N1, Nigeria, 2006), two models were compared: 1) ‘connectivity’, a model that integrated bio-physical concepts (the agent’s transmission cycle, road topology) into indicators designed to measure networks (‘nodes’ or infected sites with short- and long-range links), and 2) ‘contacts’, which focused on infected individuals but did not assess connectivity. RESULTS: The connectivity model showed five network properties: 1) spatial aggregation of cases (disease clusters), 2) links among similar ‘nodes’ (assortativity), 3) simultaneous activation of similar nodes (synchronicity), 4) disease flows moving from highly to poorly connected nodes (directionality), and 5) a few nodes accounting for most cases (a ‘‘20:800 pattern). In both epizoonotics, 1) not all primary cases were connected but at least one primary case was connected, 2) highly connected, small areas (nodes) accounted for most cases, 3) several classes of nodes were distinguished, and 4) the contact model, which assumed all primary cases were identical, captured half the number of cases identified by the connectivity model. When assessed together, the synchronicity and directionality properties explained when and where an infectious disease spreads. CONCLUSIONS: Geo-temporal constructs of Network Theory’s nodes and links were retrospectively validated in rapidly disseminating infectious diseases. They distinguished classes of cases, nodes, and networks, generating information usable to revise theory and optimize control measures. Prospective studies that consider pre-outbreak predictors, such as connecting networks, are recommended.The National Veterinary Research Institute, Vom, Plateau, Nigeria; the Center for Non-Linear Studies of Los Alamos National Laboratory; and partially funded by Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) Grant CBT-09-IST-05-1-0092 (to JMF).http://www.plosone.orgab2012ab2013 (Author correction

Early network properties of the COVID-19 pandemic – the Chinese scenario

OBJECTIVES : To control epidemics, sites more affected by mortality should be identified. METHODS : Defining epidemic nodes as areas that included both most fatalities per time unit and connections, such as highways, geo-temporal Chinese data on the COVID-19 epidemic were investigated with linear, logarithmic, power, growth, exponential, and logistic regression models. A z-test compared the slopes observed. RESULTS : Twenty provinces suspected to act as epidemic nodes were empirically investigated. Five provinces displayed synchronicity, long-distance connections, directionality and assortativity – network properties that helped discriminate epidemic nodes. The rank I node included most fatalities and was activated first. Fewer deaths were reported, later, by rank II and III nodes, while the data from rank I–III nodes exhibited slopes, the data from the remaining provinces did not. The power curve was the best fitting model for all slopes. Because all pairs (rank I vs. rank II, rank I vs. rank III, and rank II vs. rank III) of epidemic nodes differed statistically, rank I–III epidemic nodes were geo-temporally and statistically distinguishable. CONCLUSIONS : The geo-temporal progression of epidemics seems to be highly structured. Epidemic network properties can distinguish regions that differ in mortality. This real-time geo-referenced analysis can inform both decision-makers and clinicians.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijidam2020Veterinary Tropical Disease

Relationship between method of anastomosis and anastomotic failure after right hemicolectomy and ileo-caecal resection: an international snapshot audit

Aim The anastomosis technique used following right-sided colonic resection is widely variable and may affect patient outcome. This study aimed to assess the association between leak and anastomosis technique (stapled vs handsewn). Method This was a prospective, multicentre, international audit including patients undergoing elective or emergency right hemicolectomy or ileo-caecal resection operations over a 2-month period in early 2015. The primary outcome measure was the presence of anastomotic leak within 30 days of surgery, determined using a prespecified definition. Mixed effects logistic regression models were used to assess the association between leak and anastomosis method, adjusting for patient, disease and operative cofactors, with centre included as a random-effect variable. Results This study included 3208 patients, of whom 78.4\% (n = 2515) underwent surgery for malignancy and 11.7\% (n = 375) underwent surgery for Crohn's disease. An anastomosis was performed in 94.8\% (n = 3041) of patients, which was handsewn in 38.9\% (n = 1183) and stapled in 61.1\% (n = 1858). Patients undergoing hand-sewn anastomosis were more likely to be emergency admissions (20.5\% handsewn vs 12.9\% stapled) and to undergo open surgery (54.7\% handsewn vs 36.6\% stapled). The overall anastomotic leak rate was 8.1\% (245/3041), which was similar following handsewn (7.4\%) and stapled (8.5\%) techniques (P = 0.3). After adjustment for cofactors, the odds of a leak were higher for stapled anastomosis (adjusted OR = 1.43; 95\% CI: 1.04-1.95; P = 0.03). Conclusion Despite being used in lower-risk patients, stapled anastomosis was associated with an increased anastomotic leak rate in this observational study. Further research is needed to define patient groups in whom a stapled anastomosis is safe