Iberia Seismic Risk Revisited the Sacred & Profane Lessons on Loss Estimation

The seismicity of the southwestern Iberian Peninsula is moderate but large events with long return periods can occur. This time span exceeds the life of several generations, creating a population unacquainted with seismic hazards. In fact, in the past, many Iberian cities have been severely damaged by earthquakes. Most earthquake-related losses are worsened by soil amplification phenomena. These mechanisms are frequently inferred from empirical formulas. These procedures are based on the average shear-wave velocity at 30 m depth - Vs30 - as a proxy for amplification phenomena. In this research, this relationship was further analysed. The 1531 Lisbon earthquake was revisited in this framework. Using the macroseismicity methodology, the 16th Century building stock has been characterised, by assigning the macro seismic vulnerability indexes and the buildings’ vulnerability curves. This procedure can be used in present conditions as a real-time tool for different scenarios. For that purpose, an Earthquake Loss Estimation software called SIRCO was built using the aforementioned algorithm procedure. In this framework, and for the city of Seville, a scenario using the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) was modelled in accordance with the potential seismogenic sources for Western Andalusia. The assessment, using a deterministic seismic hazard assessment approach, demonstrated that there is a credible scenario in which a large earthquake could seriously affect Seville causing outstanding damage in buildings with important numbers of injured and dead people. Serious reasoning and analysis of these conclusions demand that Seville’s local Authorities should thoroughly consider creating and enforcing a Local Emergency Plan to truly deal with this existing, but “hidden”, risk.La sismicidad del suroeste de la Península Ibérica es moderada, pero pueden ocurrir grandes eventos con largos períodos de retorno. Este lapso de tiempo excede la vida de varias generaciones, creando una población que no está familiarizada con los peligros sísmicos. De hecho, en el pasado, muchas ciudades ibéricas han sido severamente dañadas por terremotos. La mayoría de las pérdidas relacionadas con los terremotos se ven agravadas por los fenómenos de amplificación del suelo. Estos mecanismos se infieren con frecuencia a partir de fórmulas empíricas. Estos procedimientos se basan en la velocidad media de la onda de corte a 30 m de profundidad, Vs30, como proxy de los fenómenos de amplificación. En esta investigación, esta relación se analizó más a fondo. El terremoto de Lisboa de 1531 fue revisado en este marco. Utilizando la metodología de macrosismicidad, se ha caracterizado el parque de edificaciones del siglo XVI, asignando los índices de vulnerabilidad macrosísmica y las curvas de vulnerabilidad de las edificaciones. Este procedimiento se puede utilizar en las condiciones actuales como una herramienta en tiempo real para diferentes escenarios. Para ello, se construyó un software de estimación de pérdidas por terremoto llamado SIRCO utilizando el procedimiento de algoritmo antes mencionado. En este marco, y para la ciudad de Sevilla, se modeló un escenario utilizando el Terremoto Máximo Creíble (MCE) de acuerdo con las fuentes sismogénicas potenciales para Andalucía Occidental. La evaluación, utilizando un enfoque determinista de evaluación de peligros sísmicos, demostró que existe un escenario creíble en el que un gran terremoto podría afectar gravemente a Sevilla y causar daños importantes en edificios con un número importante de heridos y muertos. El razonamiento y el análisis serios de estas conclusiones exigen que las autoridades locales de Sevilla consideren a fondo la creación y aplicación de un Plan de Emergencia Local para hacer frente realmente a este riesgo existente, pero "oculto"

Effects of the equilibrium model on impurity transport in tokamaks

Gyrokinetic simulations of ion temperature gradient mode and trapped electron mode driven impurity transport in a realistic tokamak geometry are presented and compared with results using simplified geometries. The gyrokinetic results, obtained with the GENE code in both linear and non-linear modes are compared with data and analysis for a dedicated impurity injection discharge at JET. The impact of several factors on heat and particle transport is discussed, lending special focus to tokamak geometry and rotational shear. To this end, results using s-alpha and concentric circular equilibria are compared with results with magnetic geometry from a JET experiment. To further approach experimental conditions, non-linear gyrokinetic simulations are performed with collisions and a carbon background included. The impurity peaking factors, computed by finding local density gradients corresponding to zero particle flux, are discussed. The impurity peaking factors are seen to be reduced by a factor of ~2 in realistic geometry compared with the simplified geometries, due to a reduction of the convective pinch. It is also seen that collisions reduce the peaking factor for low-Z impurities, while increasing it for high charge numbers, which is attributed to a shift in the transport spectra towards higher wavenumbers with the addition of collisions. With the addition of roto-diffusion, an overall reduction of the peaking factors is observed, but this decrease is not sufficient to explain the flat carbon profiles seen at JET.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures (17 subfigures

Historical variation of IEA energy and CO2 emission projections: implications for future energy modeling

ABSTRACT: The World Energy Outlook reports produced by the International Energy Agency have long been considered the "gold standard" in terms of energy modeling and projecting future trends. It is thus extremely important to assess how well its projections are aligned with sustainable development goals as well as closely tracking observed, historical values. In this work we analyzed thirteen sets of World Energy Outlook projections from the last 25 years. Different scenarios were considered for the following regions and countries: world, OECD, OECD Europe, OECD North America, China, India, Russia, and Africa. The maximum variation between the projections for 2030 CO2 emissions from the energy sector, made between 2006 and 2018 for OECD, Europe and North America were found to be comparable with the gap between the Paris Agreement goals and the voluntary (unconditional) nationally determined contributions to remain below a 2 degrees C global temperature increase. For the same period, projections for the percentage of renewable electricity exhibited maximum variations between 51% and 96%, signaling a huge underestimation. We discuss the significance of overestimating energy demand and underestimating the rate of renewable energy implementation in the context of 2030 climate and energy policy targets, as well as desirable methodological changes to energy modeling under aggressive climate mitigation policies.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A deterministic seismic risk macrozonation of Seville

The seismicity of the southwestern Iberian Peninsula is moderate but large events with long return periods occur (≈ 200 years). This exceeds the life of various generations, making the population unacquainted with the seismic hazard. On the one hand, this results in a low demanding seismic code which increases the seismic vulnerability and, therefore, the seismic risk. On the other hand, the local emergency services must be properly prepared to face a destructive seismic event, with emergency plans and mitigation strategies. This assumption enhances the need of assessing the seismic risk of Seville in a civil protection context. For all the aforementioned and for the lack of instrumental data of relevant earthquakes, the assessment of the seismic hazard in this area is challenging. To do this, seismogenic zones of the new seismic hazard map of Spain have been used as sources. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for each scenario has been calculated by means of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). To estimate the site efects, in a 1D model environment, a shear wave velocity (Vs) map of the top 5 m has been depicted based on the standard penetration test (SPT). Seville’s building stock has been classifed in agreement with the previous works in Lorca and Barcelona to determine its vulnerability. The main goal of this work was to investigate the infuence of the soil amplifcation on the seismic behaviour of diferent building typologies. Therefore, the fnal target was to plot the damage scenarios expected in Seville under a maximum credible earthquake by means of a deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA). As outputs, the scenario modelled showed that around 27 000 buildings would experience a moderate damage and that 26 000 would sufer pre-collapse or even collapse. Thus, approximately 10% of the population would lose their dwellings. Regarding the human loses, around 22 000 people would sufer serious injuries and approximately 5 000 people would die. Owing to these conclusions, this research evidences the crucial need by civil protection services to implement a local emergency plan as a tool to mitigate the probable consequences that arise from this threat

Avaliação, educação e comunicação do risco sísmico no contexto das escolas do Algarve

Tem sido observado, um pouco por todo o mundo, que as populações não têm consciência do risco sísmico dos edifícios onde habitam, e que possuem espectativas irrealistas sobre o comportamento dessas construções. A perceção generalizada é que as habitações irão ficar intactas após um sismo moderado ou destruidor, desde que estas tenham sido corretamente projetadas e construídas, de acordo com as normas vigentes. Contudo, os edifícios somente são projetados para garantir a salvaguarda da vida humana, e não para a salvaguarda do património em si, podendo até não ser economicamente viável a sua reparação. Além disso, um sismo moderado poderá causar danos moderados ou severos, principalmente a nível não-estrutural, afetando assim o funcionamento das instalações por tempo indeterminado. Por outro lado, é importante promover a educação e informação das populações para contribuir para o aumento da resiliência das sociedades a estes fenómenos. Neste contexto, foi desenvolvida uma plataforma informática no âmbito do projeto de investigação PERSISTAH (Projetos de Escolas Resilientes aos SISmos no Território do Algarve e de Huelva), que possibilita a realização de avaliações de segurança sísmica dos edifícios das escolas do primeiro ciclo do ensino básico existentes no Algarve, recorrendo a modernas técnicas de análise estrutural. Usando esta ferramenta, é possível verificar qual o grau de dano provável de um edifício de uma escola, quer seja para um qualquer cenário de ocorrência de um sismo, ou simplesmente no contexto da verificação dos níveis de segurança estabelecidos nas normas NP EN 1998-1:2010 e NP EN 1998-3:2017. Estão a ser criados documentos direcionados para técnicos da área da construção, para aprendizagem das referidas metodologias, assim como relativas ao uso de técnicas de reabilitação sísmica. Em paralelo, também foram desenvolvidos instrumentos para aumentar a resiliência sísmica da população estudantil, designadamente o Projeto Educativo “Porquê que o chão se move?”, com atividades e material pedagógico para a educação e comunicação do risco sísmico, e o “Guia Prático da Escola Resiliente aos Sismos”, que também visam a implementação de medidas de redução do risco sísmico não-estrutural.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Particle transport in ion and electron scale turbulence

Micro turbulent modes have important and non-trivial effects on transport in tokamaks. This paper deals with transport of main ions and impurities in ion and electron scale turbulence, driven by ion and electron temperature gradients, and trapped electrons. Using the gyrokinetic Vlasov code GENE, results are obtained from both nonlinear and quasi-linear simulations. The transport properties are quantified by calculating the gradient of zero particle flux for steady state in source free regions of the plasma. The results are compared and contrasted with results obtained using a computationally efficient fluid model. Of particular interest are conditions of steep gradients, relevant to e.g. transport barrier conditions. Further, results from a simple s–α geometry are compared with results obtained using a JET-like magnetic equilibrium, and the effects on transport investigated

Performance of distributed multiscale simulations

Multiscale simulations model phenomena across natural scales using monolithic or component-based code, running on local or distributed resources. In this work, we investigate the performance of distributed multiscale computing of component-based models, guided by six multiscale applications with different characteristics and from several disciplines. Three modes of distributed multiscale computing are identified: supplementing local dependencies with large-scale resources, load distribution over multiple resources, and load balancing of small- and large-scale resources. We find that the first mode has the apparent benefit of increasing simulation speed, and the second mode can increase simulation speed if local resources are limited. Depending on resource reservation and model coupling topology, the third mode may result in a reduction of resource consumption

Projetos de escolas resilientes aos sismos no território do Algarve e de Huelva (PERSISTAH)

O projeto PERSISTAH propõe estudar o risco sísmico das escolas do primeiro ciclo do ensino básico localizadas nas regiões do Algarve (Portugal) e de Huelva (Espanha), dando assim cumprimento aos objetivos das Plataformas Nacionais para a Redução do Risco de Catástrofes (PNRRC) das Comissões Nacionais de Proteção Civil de Portugal e Espanha. O PERSISTAH tem como principais objetivos, melhorar o conhecimento mútuo das realidades das duas regiões, designadamente dos códigos sísmicos de cada país, e sobre as práticas construtivas regionais. Para tal foi criada uma ficha global de recolha de informação sobre as escolas do 1º ciclo (142 no Algarve e 139 em Huelva), que tendo em conta as especificidades das duas regiões. Foi desenvolvido um programa informático para a gestão da segurança sísmica das escolas, composto por três módulos: i) gestão da base de dados das escolas; ii) definição da ação sísmica a considerar; e iii) determinação do grau de dano e o School-Score de cada escola (um sistema de hierarquização do risco sísmico dos edifícios das escolas). Também foram desenvolvidos materiais pedagógicos para as crianças e professores. Os resultados obtidos com o programa informático desenvolvido mostram que os espectros de resposta estabelecidos pelos códigos sísmicos de Portugal e de Espanha são muito diferentes. Além disso, também se observaram diferenças muito significativas em função da lei de atenuação usada.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Predictive simulations of impurity transport at JET

The impact of sheared toroidal rotation on impurity transport is studied by means of predictive simulations of JET L-mode and H-mode discharges with carbon wall using the coupling between the transport codes JETTO for main ions and SANCO for impurities. The simulations are based on a fluid model for Ion-Temperature-Gradient (ITG) mode and Trapped-Electron (TE) mode driven turbulence and neoclassical transport. The fluid impurity transport coefficients are compared with gyrokinetic simulations using the code GENE. Predictive simulations of temperatures (Te, Ti=TZ) and densities (ne, nZ) are performed while the toroidal rotation is treated interpretatively