Public Opinion Formation in Policy Issues. An evolutionary approach.

We seek to shed new light on the social process of political opinion formation from an evolutionary perspective.We propose a model in which heterogeneous citizens collectively learn and modify their opinions about the most convenient size of public expenditure for the economy. In Section 1, we argue that approaching political processes from an evolutionary perspective may overcome certain theoretical shortcomings in public choice theory and in evolutionary economics. In Section 2, we claim that several features should be considered by an evolutionary approach to political processes: bounded rationality and heterogeneity on the part of agents,normative learning as a socially contingent process, and public opinion formation as an emergent social property. We devote Section 3 to propose a model based on section 2. The dynamic analysis in Section 4 reveals the existence of two regimes characterized by different dynamics for public opinion. Depending on the parametric values, either public opinion displays persistence and ongoing endogenous transformation in a more or less complex way, or it stabilizes in a rather homogenous state of opinion. Section 5 discusses to what extent the range of political opinions supported in a society may influence the complexity of the political process, affecting the time evolution of public expenditure which can turn into a chaotic regime, generating erratic dynamics of the public opinion evolution. Finally we present some conclusions.Political economy; evolutionary economics; collective learning; replicator dynamics; chaotic dynamics

Industry dynamics, technological regimes and the role of demand

In this paper, we propose an industrial dynamics model to analyze the interactions between the price-performance sensitivity of demand, the sources of innovation in a sector, and certain features of the corresponding pattern of industrial transformation. More precisely, we study market concentration in different technological regimes and demand conditions. The computational analysis of our model shows that market demand plays a key role in industrial dynamics. Thus, although for intermediate values of the price-performance sensitivity, our results show the well-known relationships in the literature between technological regimes and industry transformation, we find surprising outcomes when demand is strongly biased either towards price or performance. Hence, for different technological regimes, a high performance sensitivity of demand tends to concentrate the market. On the other hand, under conditions of high price sensitivity, the industry generally tends to atomize. That is to say, for extreme values of the price-performance sensitivity of demand, we find concentrated or atomized market structures no matter the technological regime we are in. These results highlight the importance of considering the role of demand in the analysis of industrial dynamics

Utopia competition: A new approach to the micro-foundations of sustainability transitions

We present a new evolutionary political economy approach to the study of transition dynamics based on a co-evolutionary model of differential citizen contributions to competing 'utopias'-market fundamentalism, socialism, and environmentalism. We model sustainability transitions as an outcome of 'utopia competition' in which environmentalism manages to coexist with the market, while socialism vanishes. Our simulation-based framework suggests that the individual economic contributions of citizens to the battle of ideas-both the distribution within a utopia, and the interaction between different utopias-are crucial but much overlooked micro-factors in explaining the dynamics of sustainability transitions

The economics of utopia: a co-evolutionary model of ideas, citizenship and socio-political change

We propose a new history-friendly approach to evolutionary socio-economic dynamics based around competition between five 'utopias' as central ideas about which to order society: capitalism, socialism, civil liberty, nature, and nationalism. In our model, citizens contribute economic resources to support their preferred utopia, and societal dynamics are explained as a co-evolutionary process between these competing utopias. We apply the model to analyze certain aspects of socio-economic and political change in the US from the 1960s-present. We carry out a history-friendly analysis inspired by such episodes as the outbreak of civil movements in the 1970s, the rise of neo-liberalism in the 1980s, and the channels through which America has engendered an 'age of fracture'. Further applications for empirical and theoretical research are suggested

Absorptive capacity of demand in sports innovation

We propose a stylized and tractable Neo-Schumpeterian model of sectorial transformations in which demand side knowledge constraints inhibit innovation diffusion and industrial change, causing structural instability. Evolutionary competition in the model implies that innovation can overshoot the absorptive capacity of demand, leading to a slowdown in sectorial dynamism and even to structural collapse. Closed-form analytical results prove the existence of a unique stationary state in the dynamic model that is (globally) asymptotically stable. We show how the dynamic paths and the stationary rest-point depend on the trade-off between innovation and demand absorptive capacity parameters. To illustrate the plausibility and relevance of our results, we examine the Australian windsurfing industry in which diminished demand absorptive capacity (in the terms of the model) was a factor underlying sectoral collapse. We discuss how development of absorptive capacity of demand presents a collective action problem for an industry sector, and the role of demand side factors as constraints in industry and innovation policy

ENDOGENOUS CYCLICAL GROWTH WITH A SIGMOIDAL DIFFUSION OF INNOVATIONS

The model we propose in this paper is an extension of the one described in Freeman et al. [Freeman, S., Hong, D. and Peled, D. (1999) Endogenous Cycles and Growth with Indivisible Technological Developments. Review of Economics Dynamics, 2, 403-432]. In our model, we incorporate the process of diffusion of major innovations and analyze macroeconomic effects on consumption, capital and aggregate output. Following Bresnahan and Trajtenberg [Bresnahan, T. and Trajtenberg, M. (1995) General Purpose Technologies: Engines of Growth?. Journal of Econometrics, 65, 83-108.], Helpman [Helpman, E. (ed.) (1998) General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth. MIT Press] and Lipsey et al. [Lipsey, R.G., Carlaw, K. and Bekar, C. (2005) Economic Transformations: General Purpose Technologies and Long Term Economic Growth. Oxford University Press.] we assimilate major innovations with the emergence of certain GPTs, and we suggest that the diffusion process for these technologies, at a large scale, might follow an S-shaped pattern. The proposed model presents optimum stationary solutions which are cyclical and have a wave dynamic within each cycle. The cycles are characterized by certain co-movements in consumption, R&D investment, capital accumulation and output. Consideration of the innovation diffusion process highlights new aspects of endogenous cycles and long-run growth.Endogenous growth, Diffusion of innovations, S-shaped dynamics, Cycles,