Comparison of retention in observational cohorts and nested simulated HIV vaccine efficacy trials in the key populations in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Outcomes in observational studies may not best estimate those expected in the HIV vaccine efficacy trials. We compared retention in Simulated HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials (SiVETs) and observational cohorts drawn from two key populations in Uganda. METHODS: Two SiVETs were nested within two observational cohorts, one in Fisherfolk (FF) and another one in Female Sex Workers (FSW). Adult participants in each observational cohort were screened for enrolment into SiVETs. Those screened-out or not screened continued participation in the observational (non-SiVET) cohorts. SiVET participants were administered a licensed hepatitis B vaccine in a schedule that mimicked an actual HIV vaccine efficacy trial. Both cohorts were followed for 12 months and retention was assessed through dropout, defined as lost to follow up, being uncontactable, refusal to continue or missing the last study clinic visit. Dropout rates were compared using Poisson models giving rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS: Out of 1525 participants (565 FF and 960 FSW), 572 (38%) were enrolled into SiVETs (282-FF and 290-FSW), and 953 (62%) remained in the non-SiVET cohorts. Overall, 326 (101 SiVET, 225 non-SiVET) dropped out in 1260 Person Years of Observation (PYO), a dropout rate of 25.9 /100 PYO (95%CI: 23.2-28.8); fewer dropped out in the SiVET cohorts (18.4, 95% CI: 15.1-22.4) than in the non-SiVET cohorts (31.6, 95% CI: 27.8-36.1), rate ratio (RR) =0.58, 95% CI: 0.46-0.73. In all cohorts, the dropout was more marked in FSW than in FF population. Duration lived in community was associated with dropout in both SiVETs and religion in both non-SiVET cohorts. CONCLUSION: The rate of dropout was lower in SiVET compared to non-SiVET cohort. Though the difference in dropout between SiVET and non-SiVET was generally similar, the actual dropout rates were higher in the FSW population. Conduct of SiVETs in these key populations could mean that designing HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials will benefit from lower dropout rate shown in SiVET than non-SiVET observational cohort

Comparison of HIV Risk Behaviors Between Clinical Trials and Observational Cohorts in Uganda.

Many key populations have high-risk behaviors for HIV infection making them suitable for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. However, these behaviors may change when participants enroll into a trial. We used HIV simulated vaccine efficacy trials (SiVETs) nested within observational cohorts of fisherfolks and female sex workers in Uganda to evaluate this difference. We screened observational cohort participants for enrolment into SiVETs, until 572 were enrolled. Those not enrolled (n = 953) continued participation in the observational cohorts. We determined risk behaviors at baseline and at 1 year, assigned a numeric score to each behavior and defined composite score as the sum of reported behaviors. We compared changes in scores over 12 months. Both observational cohorts and SiVETs saw a significant decrease in score but greatest in the SiVETs. Investigators recruiting for trials from these populations should consider the likely effect of reduction in risk behaviors on incident HIV infection and trial statistical power

Use of reliable contraceptives and its correlates among women participating in Simulated HIV vaccine efficacy trials in key-populations in Uganda.

To prevent pregnancy in trials, reliable contraceptive use is key. We investigated reliable contraceptive use at baseline and six months in key-populations in Uganda, during two Simulated HIV Vaccine Efficacy trials (SiVETs). SiVETs were nested within observational cohorts of Fisherfolk (2012-2014) and Female sex workers (2014-2017). Women in the observational cohorts were screened and enrolled into the SiVET. The trial administered a licensed Hepatitis B vaccine at 0, 1 and 6 months. Contraceptive use data were recorded at baseline and follow-up clinic visits. Reliable contraceptives (injectable Depot Medroxyprogesterone Acetate (DMPA), implant, pills, and intrauterine device (IUD)) were promoted and provided to women not using a reliable method at enrolment. Overall, 367 women were enrolled. At baseline 203 (55%) reported use of reliable contraceptive. Of the 164 women not using a reliable method at enrolment, 131 (80%) started using them during follow-up bringing the overall number to 334 (91%) at the end of follow-up. Young age (≤35 years) was an independent predictor of reliable contraceptive use at both time points while other factors varied. Promotion and provision of reliable contraceptives increased the proportion using them and could help reduce the risk of pregnancy in future HIV prevention trials

Simulated vaccine efficacy trials to estimate HIV incidence for actual vaccine clinical trials in key populations in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Fisherfolks (FF) and female sex workers (FSW) in Uganda could be suitable key populations for HIV vaccine efficacy trials because of the high HIV incidence and good retention in observational cohorts. However, the observed HIV incidence may differ in participants who enroll into a trial. We used simulated vaccine efficacy trials (SiVET) nested within observational cohorts in these populations to evaluate this difference. METHODS: SiVETs were nested in two observational cohorts (Jul 2012-Apr 2014 in FF and Aug 2014-Apr 2017 in FSW). From Jan 2012 all observational cohort participants (aged 18-49 years) presenting for quarterly visits were screened for enrolment into SiVETs, until 572 were enrolled. Those not enrolled (screened-out or not screened) in SiVET continued participation in the observational cohorts. In addition to procedures in the observational cohorts (HIV testing & risk assessment), SiVET participants were given a licensed Hepatitis B vaccine mimicking a schedule of a possible HIV vaccine, and followed-up for 12 months. FINDINGS: In total, 3989 participants were enrolled into observational cohorts (1575 FF prior to Jul 2012 and 2414 FSW prior to Aug 2014). Of these 3622 (90.8%) returned at least once, 672 (44.1%) were screened and 572 enrolled in the SiVETs. HIV incidence pre SIVETs was 4.5/100 person years-at-risk (pyar), 95%CI (3.8-5.5). HIV incidence in SiVET was 3.5/100 pyar, (2.2-5.6) and higher in those not enrolled in the SiVET, 5.9/100 pyar, (4.3-8.1). This difference was greatest among FF. In the 12 months post-SIVET period (FF, May 2014-Apr 2015 and FSW, May 2017-Apr 2018), the HIV incidence was 3.7/100 pyar, (2.5-5.8). INTERPRETATION: HIV incidence was lower in SiVET participants compared to non-SiVET. This difference was different for the two populations. Researchers designing HIV efficacy trials using observational cohort data need to consider the potential for lower than expected HIV incidence following screening and enrolment

Effect of rAd5-Vector HIV-1 Preventive Vaccines on HIV-1 Acquisition: A Participant- Level Meta-Analysis of Randomized Trial

Background Three phase 2b, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized efficacy trials have tested recombinant Adenovirus serotype-5 (rAd5)-vector preventive HIV-1 vaccines: MRKAd5 HIV-1 gag/pol/nef in Step and Phambili, and DNA/rAd5 HIV-1 env/gag/pol in HVTN505. Due to efficacy futility observed at the first interim analysis in Step and HVTN505, participants of all three studies were unblinded to their vaccination assignments during the study but continued follow–up. Rigorous meta-analysis can provide crucial information to advise the future utility of rAd5-vector vaccines. Methods We included participant-level data from all three efficacy trials, and three Phase 1–2 trials evaluating the HVTN505 vaccine regimen. We predefined two co-primary analysis cohorts for assessing the vaccine effect on HIV-1 acquisition. The modified-intention-to-treat (MITT) cohort included all randomly assigned participants HIV-1 uninfected at study entry, who received at least the first vaccine/placebo, and the Ad5 cohort included MITT participants who received at least one dose of rAd5-HIV vaccine or rAd5-placebo. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of HIV-1 infection (vaccine vs. placebo) and evaluate HR variation across vaccine regimens, time since vaccination, and subgroups using interaction tests. Findings Results are similar for the MITT and Ad5 cohorts; we summarize MITT cohort results. Pooled across the efficacy trials, over all follow-up time 403 (n = 224 vaccine; n = 179 placebo) of 6266 MITT participants acquired HIV-1, with a non-significantly higher incidence in vaccine recipients (HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.99–1.48, P = 0.06). The HRs significantly differed by vaccine regimen (interaction P = 0.03; MRKAd5 HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.11–1.78, P = 0.005 vs. DNA/rAd5 HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.61–1.26, P = 0.48). Results were similar when including the Phase 1–2 trials. Exploratory analyses based on the efficacy trials supported that the MRKAd5 vaccine-increased risk was concentrated in Ad5-positive or uncircumcised men early in follow-up, and in Ad5-negative or circumcised men later. Overall, MRKAd5 vaccine-increased risk was evident across subgroups except in circumcised Ad5-negative men (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.58−1.63, P = 0.91); there was little evidence that the DNA/rAd5 vaccine, that was tested in this subgroup, increased risk (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.61–1.26, P = 0.48). When restricting the analysis of Step and Phambili to follow-up time before unblinding, 114 (n = 65 vaccine; n = 49 placebo) of 3770 MITT participants acquired HIV-1, with a non-significantly higher incidence in MRKAd5 vaccine recipients (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.89–1.14, P = 0.18). Interpretation and Significance The data support increased risk of HIV-1 infection by MRKAd5 over all follow-up time, but do not support increased risk of HIV-1 infection by DNA/rAd5. This study provides a rationale for including monitoring plans enabling detection of increased susceptibility to infection in HIV-1 at-risk populations

Safety, Adherence and Acceptability of Intermittent Tenofovir/Emtricitabine as HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) among HIV-Uninfected Ugandan Volunteers Living in HIV-Serodiscordant Relationships: A Randomized, Clinical Trial

Background: Efficacy of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in prevention of HIV acquisition has been evaluated using a daily regimen. However, adherence to long term daily medication is rarely perfect. Intermittent regimen may be a feasible alternative. Preclinical studies have demonstrated effectiveness of intermittent PrEP in SHIV prevention among animals. However, little is known about intermittent PrEP regimens. Design: Seventy two HIV-uninfected volunteers in HIV serodiscordant couple relationships in Uganda were randomly assigned to receive daily oral Tenofovir/Emtricitabine (TDF/FTC-Truvada) or placebo, or intermittent (Monday, Friday and within 2 hours after sex, not to exceed one dose per day) oral TDF/FTC or placebo in a 2:1:2:1 ratio. Volunteers and study staff were blinded to drug assignment, but not to regimen assignment. Methods: Volunteers were followed for 4 months after randomization, with monthly clinical and laboratory safety assessments and comprehensive HIV risk reduction services. Adherence was monitored using medication event monitoring system (MEMS) and self-report. Sexual activity data were collected via daily short text message (SMS) and self-report. HIV-specific immune responses were assessed by IFN-γ ELISPOT. Results: Both daily and intermittent oral TDF/FTC regimens were well tolerated. Median MEMS adherence rates were 98% (IQR: 93-100) for daily PrEP regimen, 91% (IQR: 73-97) for fixed intermittent dosing and 45% (IQR: 20-63) for post-coital dosing. SMS response rate was 74%, but increased to 80% after excluding server outages; results may have been affected by the novelty of this measure. The majority of volunteers expressed willingness with no particular preference for either regimen. Conclusions: Both daily and intermittent oral PrEP dosing regimens were safe. Adherence was high for daily and fixed intermittent dosing; post-coital dosing was associated with poor adherence. Fixed intermittent PrEP regimens may be feasible especially if a minimum effective drug concentration correlating with HIV prevention can be achieved with this dosing. Registration Clinicaltrials.gov number NCT0093134

Prediction of extended high viremia among newly HIV-1-infected persons in sub-Saharan Africa

Objective Prompt identification of newly HIV-infected persons, particularly those who are most at risk of extended high viremia (EHV), allows important clinical and transmission prevention benefits. We sought to determine whether EHV could be predicted during early HIV infection (EHI) from clinical, demographic, and laboratory indicators in a large HIV-1 incidence study in Africa. Design Adults acquiring HIV-1 infection were enrolled in an EHI study assessing acute retroviral syndrome (ARS) symptoms and viral dynamics. Methods Estimated date of infection (EDI) was based on a positive plasma viral load or p24 antigen test prior to seroconversion, or the mid-point between negative and positive serological tests. EHV was defined as mean untreated viral load ≥5 log10 copies/ml 130-330 days post-EDI. We used logistic regression to develop risk score algorithms for predicting EHV based on sex, age, number of ARS symptoms, and CD4 and viral load at diagnosis. Results Models based on the full set of five predictors had excellent performance both in the full population (c-statistic = 0.80) and when confined to persons with each of three HIV-1 subtypes(c-statistic = 0.80-0.83 within subtypes A, C, and D). Reduced models containing only 2-4 predictors performed similarly. In a risk score algorithm based on the final full-population model, predictor scores were one for male sex and enrollment CD4<350 cells/mm3, and two for having enrollment viral load >4.9 log10 copies/ml. With a risk score cut-point of two, this algorithm was 85% sensitive (95% CI: 76%-91%) and 61% specific (55%-68%) in predicting EHV. Conclusions Simple risk score algorithms can reliably identify persons with EHI in sub-Saharan Africa who are likely to sustain high viral loads if treatment is delayed. These algorithms may be useful for prioritizing intensified efforts around care linkage and retention, treatment initiation,adherence support, and partner services to optimize clinical and prevention outcomes

Use of propensity score matching to create counterfactual group to assess potential HIV prevention interventions.

The design of HIV prevention trials in the context of effective HIV preventive methods is a challenge. Alternate designs, including using non-randomised 'observational control arms' have been proposed. We used HIV simulated vaccine efficacy trials (SiVETs) to show pitfalls that may arise from using such observational controls and suggest how to conduct the analysis in the face of the pitfalls. Two SiVETs were nested within previously established observational cohorts of fisherfolk (FF) and female sex workers (FSW) in Uganda. SiVET participants received a licensed Hepatitis B vaccine in a schedule (0, 1 and 6 months) similar to that for a possible HIV vaccine efficacy trial. All participants received HIV counselling and testing every quarter for one year to assess HIV incidence rate ratio (IRR) between SiVET and non-SiVET (observational data). Propensity scores, conditional on baseline characteristics were calculated for SiVET participation and matched between SiVET and non-SiVET in the period before and during the SiVET study. We compared IRR before and after propensity score matching (PSM). In total, 3989 participants were enrolled into observational cohorts prior to SiVET, (1575 FF prior to Jul 2012 and 2414 FSW prior to Aug 2014). SiVET enrolled 572 participants (Jul 2012 to Apr 2014 in FF and Aug 2014 to Apr 2017 in FSW), with 953 non-SiVET participants observed in the SiVET concurrent period and 2928 from the pre-SiVET period (before Jul 2012 in FF or before Apr 2014 in FSW). Imbalances in baseline characteristics were observed between SiVET and non-SiVET participants in both periods before PSM. Similarly, HIV incidence was lower in SiVET than non-SiVET; SiVET-concurrent period, IRR = 0.59, 95% CI 0.31-0.68, p = 0.033 and pre-SiVET period, IRR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.43-1.29, p = 0.161. After PSM, participants baseline characteristics were comparable and there were minimal differences in HIV incidence between SiVET and non-SiVET participants. The process of screening for eligibility for efficacy trial selects participants with baseline characteristics different from the source population, confounding any observed differences in HIV incidence. Propensity score matching can be a useful tool to adjust the imbalance in the measured participants' baseline characteristics creating a counterfactual group to estimate the effect of interventions on HIV incidence

Differences in acute retroviral syndrome by HIV-1 subtype in a multicentre cohort study in Africa

Symptoms of acute retroviral syndrome (ARS) may be used to identify patients with acute HIV-1 infection who seek care. ARS symptoms in African adults differ by region. We assessed whether reporting of ARS was associated with HIV-1 subtype in a multicentre African cohort study representing countries with predominant HIV-1 subtypes A, C, and D

Phase 1 Trials of rVSV Ebola Vaccine in Africa and Europe.

BACKGROUND: The replication-competent recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (rVSV)-based vaccine expressing a Zaire ebolavirus (ZEBOV) glycoprotein was selected for rapid safety and immunogenicity testing before its use in West Africa. METHODS: We performed three open-label, dose-escalation phase 1 trials and one randomized, double-blind, controlled phase 1 trial to assess the safety, side-effect profile, and immunogenicity of rVSV-ZEBOV at various doses in 158 healthy adults in Europe and Africa. All participants were injected with doses of vaccine ranging from 300,000 to 50 million plaque-forming units (PFU) or placebo. RESULTS: No serious vaccine-related adverse events were reported. Mild-to-moderate early-onset reactogenicity was frequent but transient (median, 1 day). Fever was observed in up to 30% of vaccinees. Vaccine viremia was detected within 3 days in 123 of the 130 participants (95%) receiving 3 million PFU or more; rVSV was not detected in saliva or urine. In the second week after injection, arthritis affecting one to four joints developed in 11 of 51 participants (22%) in Geneva, with pain lasting a median of 8 days (interquartile range, 4 to 87); 2 self-limited cases occurred in 60 participants (3%) in Hamburg, Germany, and Kilifi, Kenya. The virus was identified in one synovial-fluid aspirate and in skin vesicles of 2 other vaccinees, showing peripheral viral replication in the second week after immunization. ZEBOV-glycoprotein-specific antibody responses were detected in all the participants, with similar glycoprotein-binding antibody titers but significantly higher neutralizing antibody titers at higher doses. Glycoprotein-binding antibody titers were sustained through 180 days in all participants. CONCLUSIONS: In these studies, rVSV-ZEBOV was reactogenic but immunogenic after a single dose and warrants further evaluation for safety and efficacy. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT02283099, NCT02287480, and NCT02296983; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry number, PACTR201411000919191.)