The Indian Ocean Dipole and Cholera Incidence in Bangladesh: A Time-Series Analysis

Background: It has been reported that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the interannual variation of endemic cholera in Bangladesh. There is increased interest in the influence of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), a climate mode of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability, on regional ocean climate in the Bay of Bengal and on Indian monsoon rainfall. Objectives: We explored the relationship between the IOD and the number of cholera patients in Bangladesh, controlling for the effects of ENSO. Me t h o d s: Time-series regression was performed. Negative binomial models were used to estimate associations between the monthly number of hospital visits for cholera in Dhaka and Matlab (1993–2007) and the dipole mode index (DMI) controlling for ENSO index [NINO3, a measure of the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3 region], seasonal, and interannual variations. Associations between cholera cases and SST and sea surface height (SSH) of the northern Bay of Bengal were also examined. Re s u l t s: A 0.1-unit increase in average DMI during the current month through 3 months before was associated with an increase in cholera incidence of 2.6 % [(95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.0–5.2; p = 0.05] in Dhaka and 6.9 % (95 % CI, 3.2–10.8; p < 0.01) in Matlab. Cholera incidence in Dhaka increased by 2.4 % (95 % CI, 0.0–5.0; p = 0.06) after a 0.1‑unit decrease in DMI 4–7 months before. Hospital visits for cholera in both areas were positively associated with SST 0–3 months before, after adjusting for SSH (p < 0.01). Con c l u s i o n s: These findings suggest that both negative and positive dipole events are associated with an increased incidence of cholera in Bangladesh with varying time lags. Key w o r d s: Bangladesh, cholera, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean dipole, timeseries analysis. Environ Health Perspect 119:239–244 (2011). doi:10.1289/ehp.1002302 [Onlin

Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir

BACKGROUND: In the last decades, attention to cholera epidemiology increased, as cholera epidemics became a worldwide health problem. Detailed investigation of V. cholerae interactions with its host and with other organisms in the environment suggests that cholera dynamics is much more complex than previously thought. Here, I formulate a mathematical model of cholera epidemiology that incorporates an environmental reservoir of V. cholerae. The objective is to explore the role of the aquatic reservoir on the persistence of endemic cholera as well as to define minimum conditions for the development of epidemic and endemic cholera. RESULTS: The reproduction rate of cholera in a community is defined by the product of social and environmental factors. The importance of the aquatic reservoir depends on the sanitary conditions of the community. Seasonal variations of contact rates force a cyclical pattern of cholera outbreaks, as observed in some cholera-endemic communities. CONCLUSIONS: Further development on cholera modeling requires a better understanding of V. cholerae ecology and epidemiology. We need estimates of the prevalence of V. cholerae infection in endemic populations as well as a better description of the relationship between dose and virulence

Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics

In many infectious diseases, an unknown fraction of infections produce symptoms mild enough to go unrecorded, a fact that can seriously compromise the interpretation of epidemiological records. This is true for cholera, a pandemic bacterial disease, where estimates of the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections have ranged from 3 to 100 (refs 1-5). In the absence of direct evidence, understanding of fundamental aspects of cholera transmission, immunology and control has been based on assumptions about this ratio and about the immunological consequences of inapparent infections. Here we show that a model incorporating high asymptomatic ratio and rapidly waning immunity, with infection both from human and environmental sources, explains 50 yr of mortality data from 26 districts of Bengal, the pathogen's endemic home. We find that the asymptomatic ratio in cholera is far higher than had been previously supposed and that the immunity derived from mild infections wanes much more rapidly than earlier analyses have indicated. We find, too, that the environmental reservoir(5,6) (free-living pathogen) is directly responsible for relatively few infections but that it may be critical to the disease's endemicity. Our results demonstrate that inapparent infections can hold the key to interpreting the patterns of disease outbreaks. New statistical methods(7), which allow rigorous maximum likelihood inference based on dynamical models incorporating multiple sources and outcomes of infection, seasonality, process noise, hidden variables and measurement error, make it possible to test more precise hypotheses and obtain unexpected results. Our experience suggests that the confrontation of time-series data with mechanistic models is likely to revise our understanding of the ecology of many infectious diseases.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62519/1/nature07084.pd

Transmission of Vibrio cholerae Is Antagonized by Lytic Phage and Entry into the Aquatic Environment

Cholera outbreaks are proposed to propagate in explosive cycles powered by hyperinfectious Vibrio cholerae and quenched by lytic vibriophage. However, studies to elucidate how these factors affect transmission are lacking because the field experiments are almost intractable. One reason for this is that V. cholerae loses the ability to culture upon transfer to pond water. This phenotype is called the active but non-culturable state (ABNC; an alternative term is viable but non-culturable) because these cells maintain the capacity for metabolic activity. ABNC bacteria may serve as the environmental reservoir for outbreaks but rigorous animal studies to test this hypothesis have not been conducted. In this project, we wanted to determine the relevance of ABNC cells to transmission as well as the impact lytic phage have on V. cholerae as the bacteria enter the ABNC state. Rice-water stool that naturally harbored lytic phage or in vitro derived V. cholerae were incubated in a pond microcosm, and the culturability, infectious dose, and transcriptome were assayed over 24 h. The data show that the major contributors to infection are culturable V. cholerae and not ABNC cells. Phage did not affect colonization immediately after shedding from the patients because the phage titer was too low. However, V. cholerae failed to colonize the small intestine after 24 h of incubation in pond water—the point when the phage and ABNC cell titers were highest. The transcriptional analysis traced the transformation into the non-infectious ABNC state and supports models for the adaptation to nutrient poor aquatic environments. Phage had an undetectable impact on this adaptation. Taken together, the rise of ABNC cells and lytic phage blocked transmission. Thus, there is a fitness advantage if V. cholerae can make a rapid transfer to the next host before these negative selective pressures compound in the aquatic environment

Dietary Intake of Methionine, Cysteine, and Protein and Urinary Arsenic Excretion in Bangladesh

BackgroundIn Bangladesh, millions of people are exposed to arsenic in drinking water; arsenic is associated with increased risk of cancer. Once ingested, arsenic is metabolized via methylation and excreted in urine. Knowledge about nutritional factors affecting individual variation in methylation is limited.ObjectivesThe purpose of this study was to examine associations between intakes of protein, methionine, and cysteine total urinary arsenic in a large population-based sample.MethodsThe study subjects were 10,402 disease-free residents of Araihazar, Bangladesh, who participated in the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS). Food intakes were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire developed for the study population. Nutrient composition was determined by using the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine association between total urinary arsenic across quintiles of nutrient intakes while controlling for arsenic exposure from drinking water and other predictors of urinary arsenic.ResultsGreater intakes of protein, methionine, and cysteine were associated with 10-15% greater total urinary arsenic excretion, after controlling for total energy intake, body weight, sex, age, tobacco use, and intake of some other nutrients.ConclusionsGiven previously reported risks between lower rates of arsenic excretion and increased rates of cancer, these findings support the role of nutrition in preventing arsenic-related disease

Genetic Analysis of Anti-Amoebae and Anti-Bacterial Activities of the Type VI Secretion System in Vibrio cholerae

A type VI secretion system (T6SS) was recently shown to be required for full virulence of Vibrio cholerae O37 serogroup strain V52. In this study, we systematically mutagenized each individual gene in T6SS locus and characterized their functions based on expression and secretion of the hemolysin co-regulated protein (Hcp), virulence towards amoebae of Dictyostelium discoideum and killing of Escherichia coli bacterial cells. We group the 17 proteins characterized in the T6SS locus into four categories: twelve (VipA, VipB, VCA0109–VCA0115, ClpV, VCA0119, and VasK) are essential for Hcp secretion and bacterial virulence, and thus likely function as structural components of the apparatus; two (VasH and VCA0122) are regulators that are required for T6SS gene expression and virulence; another two, VCA0121 and valine-glycine repeat protein G 3 (VgrG-3), are not essential for Hcp expression, secretion or bacterial virulence, and their functions are unknown; the last group is represented by VCA0118, which is not required for Hcp expression or secretion but still plays a role in both amoebae and bacterial killing and may therefore be an effector protein. We also showed that the clpV gene product is required for Dictyostelium virulence but is less important for killing E. coli. In addition, one vgrG gene (vgrG-2) outside of the T6SS gene cluster was required for bacterial killing but another (vgrG-1) was not. However, a bacterial killing defect was observed when vgrG-1 and vgrG-3 were both deleted. Several genes encoded in the same putative operon as vgrG-1 and vgrG-2 also contribute to virulence toward Dictyostelium but have a smaller effect on bacterial killing. Our results provide new insights into the functional requirements of V. cholerae's T6SS in the context of secretion as well as killing of bacterial and eukaryotic phagocytic cells

Spatial clustering in the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic cholera

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The spatio-temporal patterns of infectious diseases that are environmentally driven reflect the combined effects of transmission dynamics and environmental heterogeneity. They contain important information on different routes of transmission, including the role of environmental reservoirs. Consideration of the spatial component in infectious disease dynamics has led to insights on the propagation of fronts at the level of counties in rabies in the US, and the metapopulation behavior at the level of cities in childhood diseases such as measles in the UK, both at relatively coarse scales. As epidemiological data on individual infections become available, spatio-temporal patterns can be examined at higher resolutions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The extensive spatio-temporal data set for cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh, maps the individual location of cases from 1983 to 2003. This unique record allows us to examine the spatial structure of cholera outbreaks, to address the role of primary transmission, occurring from an aquatic reservoir to the human host, and that of secondary transmission, involving a feedback between current and past levels of infection. We use Ripley's K and L indices and bootstrapping methods to evaluate the occurrence of spatial clustering in the cases during outbreaks using different temporal windows. The spatial location of cases was also confronted against the spatial location of water sources.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Spatial clustering of cholera cases was detected at different temporal and spatial scales. Cases relative to water sources also exhibit spatial clustering.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The clustering of cases supports an important role of secondary transmission in the dynamics of cholera epidemics in Matlab, Bangladesh. The spatial clustering of cases relative to water sources, and its timing, suggests an effective role of water reservoirs during the onset of cholera outbreaks. Once primary transmission has initiated an outbreak, secondary transmission takes over and plays a fundamental role in shaping the epidemics in this endemic area.</p

Targeting the Replication Initiator of the Second Vibrio Chromosome: Towards Generation of Vibrionaceae-Specific Antimicrobial Agents

The Vibrionaceae is comprised of numerous aquatic species and includes several human pathogens, such as Vibrio cholerae, the cause of cholera. All organisms in this family have two chromosomes, and replication of the smaller one depends on rctB, a gene that is restricted to the Vibrionaceae. Given the increasing prevalence of multi-drug resistance in pathogenic vibrios, there is a need for new targets and drugs to combat these pathogens. Here, we carried out a high throughput cell-based screen to find small molecule inhibitors of RctB. We identified a compound that blocked growth of an E. coli strain bearing an rctB-dependent plasmid but did not influence growth of E. coli lacking this plasmid. This compound, designated vibrepin, had potent cidal activity against V. cholerae and inhibited the growth of all vibrio species tested. Vibrepin blocked RctB oriCII unwinding, apparently by promoting formation of large non-functional RctB complexes. Although vibrepin also appears to have targets other than RctB, our findings suggest that RctB is an attractive target for generation of novel antibiotics that only block growth of vibrios. Vibrio-specific agents, unlike antibiotics currently used in clinical practice, will not engender resistance in the normal human flora or in non-vibrio environmental microorganisms