On The Road to Monetary Union – Do Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Economies React in the same way to United States' Monetary Policy Shocks?

This paper empirically estimates the responses of inflation and non-oil output growth from Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (AGCC) Countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) in order to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. For this, a structural vector autoregression identified with short-run restrictions was employed for each country with fund rate as US monetary policy instrument, non-oil output growth, and inflation. The main results that are of interest to decision makers suggest that (i) with respect to inflation, AGCC countries show synchronized responses to monetary policy shocks from the US and these responses are similar to US own inflation; (ii) with respect to non-oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can do as good of a job for AGCC countries as it has done at home. Therefore, importing monetary policy from the United States via a dollar peg may guarantee stable inflation for AGCC countries but not necessarily stable non-oil output growth. To the extent that the non-oil output response is taken seriously and there are concerns over the dollar's ability to perform its role as a store of value, a basket peg with both the US dollar and the Euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short-term interest rate.AGCC Countries, US monetary policy shock, monetary union, currency peg, SVARs

Which Output Gap Measure Matters for the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (AGCC): The Overall GDP Output Gap or the Non-Oil Sector Output Gap?

In this paper we estimate the output gaps of the AGCC countries using four different methods that are: the linear trend model, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Band-Pass filter and the unobserved components model. To perform meaningful comparisons, we differentiate between the overall and non-oil output gap and estimate their respective gaps. Several primary conclusions are manifestly noted from our analysis. First, all the different methods but the unobserved components model has produced almost similar results. Second, our results indicate that all the countries in the region have similar business cycles. Third, we find that there is no significant difference between the overall output gap measures and the non-oil output gaps for all the countries in the region. Fourth, the estimated output gaps did not have any explanatory power on domestic inflation for all the countries with the exception of Saudi Arabia and Oman., Output gap, Inflation, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Frequency domain filter, Band-Pass filter, Unobserved Components model, Kalman filter, Phillips Curve

MANAJEMEN DAN SISTEM PEMBINAAN PADA SEKOLAH SEPAKBOLA HIZBUL WATHAN BABAT-LAMONGAN

Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui manajemen kepengurusan, sistem pembinaan, serta pencapaian prestasi yang telah didapatnya. Penelitian ini mempunyai fokus penelitian tentang bagaimana manajemen kepengurusan, bagaimana sistem pembinaanya, dan bagaimana pencapaian prestasi yang telah didapatkan. Penelitian ini menggunakan jenis penelitian kualitatif dengan pendekatan deskriptif, yaitu dengan cara pengamatan serta wawancara langsung di lapangan. Sumber data penelitian adalah Sekolah Sepakbola Hizbul Wathan (HW) Babat-Lamongan, dengan narasumber pengurus, pelatih, wali murid dan atlet pihak tersebut. Berdasarkan hasil analisis penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa di dalam sebuah sekolah sepakbola dibutuhkan beberapa aspek untuk menjalankan dan melaksanakan fungsi dari SSB semestinya. Salah satu fungsi utama SSB adalah menjadi tempat pembinaan usia dini di bidang sepakbola, oleh karena itu di dalam sistem pembinaan tersebut harus dilakukan dan diterapkan dengan benar, baik dan sesuai dengan kebutuhan para atlet sesuai kelompok umur. Sekolah sepakbola Hizbul Wathan sendiri manajemen kepengurusan sudah berjalan dan terstruktur dengan baik dapat dilihat dari adanya pembaharuan petinggi-petinggi setiap lima tahun sekali. Sistem pembinaanya juga sudah diterapkan dan dijalankan menyesuaikan dengan kebutuhan atlet, seperti sudah mempunyai kurikulum sepakbola meskipun kurikulum dari hasil diskusi antar pelatih. Kemudian untuk proses pelatih dalam melatih juga sudah dijalankan sesuai apa yang didapat di penataran pelatih yang diikutinya. Para pemain juga sudah tidak dibuat pusing seumpama ada pemain yang dianggap berpotensi akan disalurkan kepada klub yang lebih profesional untuk jenjang kedepan bagi atlet tersebut. Prestasi sangat dibutuhkan di setiap SSB atau sejenisnya, karena sebuah prestasi yang didapat bisa jadi sebagai tolak ukur untuk perkembangan atlet di bidang sepakbola. Prestasi juga dijadikan sebagai bukti bahwa SSB tersebut bagus dan berkualitas. Hizbul Wathan sendiri sudah meraih prestasi-prestasi yang didapat dari partisipasi di turnamen-turnamen yang diikutinya. Selain prestasi pencapaian trofi juara prestasi lain yang dimiliki adalah menyumbangkan beberapa pemain asli pembinaan Hizbul Wathan kepada klub-klub profesional di persepakbolaan Indonesia. Kata kunci: Manajemen, Sistem Pembinaan, Sekolah Sepakbola. Abstract This research aims to determine of structure management, development system, and performance to get achievements that have been obtained. This research has a focus about on how of structure management, how abaut the development system, and how to get performance of achievements that have been obtained. This research uses qualitative research type with descriptive approach, that is by observation and direct interview in the field, and the source of research data is Hizbul Wathan Football School, with the informant, coach, management and athlete of that. Based on the results of this research analysis proves that in a football school required several aspects to run and implement the functions of SSB should. One of the main functions of SSB is to be an early age coaching place in the field of football, therefore in the development system must be done and applied correctly, both and in accordance with the needs of athletes according to age group. Hizbul Wathan football school itself management stewardship has been running and well structured can be seen from the renewal of high-ranking officials every five years. The development system has also been implemented and adapted to suit the needs of athletes, such as already having a soccer curriculum despite the curriculum of the results of inter-trainer discussions. Then for the process of coach in the train has also been executed according to what is obtained in the upgrading trainers who followed. The players also have not made a headache as there are players who are considered potentially will be channeled to a more professional club for the future for the athlete. Achievements are needed in every football school or the like, because a achievement that can be obtained as a benchmark for the development of athletes in the field of football, achievement is also used as evidence that the football school is so good and quality. Hizbul Wathan himself has achieved the achievements gained from participation in the tournaments he attended. In addition to performance get of achievement trophy other achievements champion is to donate some original players Hizbul Wathan to professional clubs in Indonesian football. Keyword: Manageement, Development System, Football Schoo

EFEKTIVITAS AREA SHOOTING PADA PRO FUTSAL LEAGUE (PFL) 2019

Dalam futsal terdapat beberapa area yakni, center, ala, dan half space yang berbentuk horizontal dan area shooting. Pemain futsal dituntut untuk kreatif dalam pemanfaatan area tersebut untuk menambah skor timnya. Pemanfaatan area ini membantu pemain melakukan serangan dan shooting untuk menciptakan peluang dan skor. Tujuan dilakukan penelitian ini adalah mengetahui area efektif terjadinya goal dan persentase shoot on goal yang tercipta. Mengetahui rata-rata shooting pada setiap pertandingan di Pro Futsal League 2019. Metode penelitian ini adalah metode dokumentasi. Data yang diolah berupa bentuk video yang langsung diambil melalui website resmi Federasi Futsal Indonesia (FFI). Hasil Penelitian menunjukkan jumlah keseluruhan goal adalah 30 gol. Gol melalui area center terjadi 22 gol dengan persentase 73% sedangkan melalui ala atau flank 5 gol dengan persentase 17%, dan melalui half-space terjadi 3 gol dengan persentase 10%. Jumlah shooting yang dilakukan pemain pro futsal league 2019 dari keseluruhan match adalah 232 tembakan. 120 shoot on target persentasenya 52% dan 112 shoot off target dengan persentase 48%. Rata-rata shooting dari setiap pertandingan adalah 12,15 shoot on target sedangkan shoot off taget adalah 11. Dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa area center adalah area effektif terjadinya goal

グリッドでのプロセッサ割付アルゴリズムMEETの解析と改良

電気通信大学200

International Portfolio Allocation and Income Smoothing: Evidence from Recent Changes in Euro Region.

In this paper, we make two contributions to the literature. First, we construct a new measurement to capture income smoothing effectively. Second, we present new empirical evidence on the linkages between international asset trading and income smoothing. We use factor income inflows instead of the commonly used net factor income and arrive at results, among others, similar to previous studies in the literature: (a) risk sharing and equity portfolio home bias are strongly correlated for EU members; and (b) Specialization in output plays a significant role in income smoothing. Our findings also confirm that the increased level of economic integration witnessed in the Euro area as a result of the monetary union fosters output specialization across EU members and leads to asymmetric output fluctuations. Cross-border financial assets’ trading within the Euro Area, though smaller in comparison to the overall OECD block, serves as a shock absorber as factor income flows to smooth domestic consumption and income. However, although we have observed a decrease in home bias for OECD members, we could not find any evidence of higher income smoothing as a result.Capital Market Integration, Euro Portfolio Bias, Income Smoothing

The Effect of FDI to Accelerate the Economic Growth of Bangladesh and Some Problems & Prospects of FDI

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has great impact on the development of a developing country like Bangladesh. The foreign investor seeks for new sources of investment where the developing country seeks for new sources of fund to develop the country. The FDI does not only bring sources of fund in a developing country but also new technology in a developing country. The FDI has the important role to develop the garments & weaving, telecommunication, banking and pharmaceuticals industry of Bangladesh. In this paper the role of FDI in economic growth (GDP) is analyzed to find out relationship between FDI and GDP in Bangladesh. To analyze the impact, The GDP has been taken as a dependent and FDI as an independent variable to run the regression analysis where the result shows that the FDI can explain about 83% data of GDP, p value much less than 0.05 to reject null hypothesis and GDP changes 64.0709 units for changes of each unit of FDI. The correlation matrix shows the GDP and FDI is highly correlated (0.912024962) in perspective of Bangladesh economy, so the FDI has grater impact on GDP or Economic Growth of Bangladesh. Some of the problems and prospects of FDI in Bangladesh is also discussed in the paper. JEL Classification Code: F2

Income smoothing and foreign asset holdings.

In this paper we construct a new methodology to measure the international income smoothing and present stronger connectionbetween international asset holding and international income smoothing for OECD countries.Capital Market Integration, Home Bias, Income Smoothing

International Portfolio Inflows to GCC Markets. Are There any General Patterns?

In this paper, we document the main factors underlying the foreign portfolio inflows to Gulf Corporation Council countries (hereafter GCC) by employing a recently published database of cross-country portfolio holdings by the International Monetary Fund. We find that bilateral factors such as trade volume and debt to GDP ratio between the source and GCC (host) countries play a truly significant role in determining the volume of cross border portfolio inflows to GCC markets. Particularly, there is a strong correlation between trade volume and the volume of portfolio inflows. This connection becomes even stronger over time. Moreover, GCC members’ stable fiscal position (lower debt to GDP ratio) is practically one of the important determinants of the volume of portfolio inflows to GCC markets. Specifically, for the international bond holders, the foremost motivation for investing cross borders is the absence of default risk and the higher return in comparison to other countries. We have also found that the extent of openness in capital account transactions and the income level of source country are additional factors that help to explain the volume of foreign portfolio inflows to GCC members. Last but not least, although there is a remarkable increase in the volume of the international portfolio inflows to GCC countries, there also exists a “GCC bias”, a huge share of the portfolio inflows to GCC markets is coming from the GCC countries. This bias is the notable consequence of the high level financial and economic integration that characterizes the GCC countries as they are heading towards a monetary union. A similar bias occurs in European Union markets as well.Capital Market Integration, GCC Portfolio Bias, Economic Integration, Bilateral Linkage