Spatiotemporal changes in Iranian rivers’ discharge

Abstract Trends in river flow at national scale in Iran remain largely unclear, despite good coverage of river flow at multiple monitoring stations. To address this gap, this study explores the changes in Iranian rivers’ discharge using regression and analysis of variance methods to historically rich data measured at hydrometric stations. Our assessment is performed for 139 selected hydrometric stations located in Iranian data-rich basins that cover around 97% of the country’s rivers with more than 30 years of observations. Our findings show that most of the studied Iran’s rivers (>56%) have undergone a downward trend (P value < 0.1) in mean annual flow that is 2.5 times bigger than that obtained for the large world’s rivers, resulting in a change from permanent to intermittent for around 20% of rivers in Iran’s subbasins. Given no significant change observed in the main natural drivers of Iranian rivers’ discharge, these findings reveal the country’s surface fresh-water shortage was caused dominantly by anthropogenic disturbances rather than variability in climate parameters. It may even indicate the development of new river regimes with deep implications for future surface fresh-water storage in the country. This research’s findings improve our understanding of changes in Iranian rivers’ discharge and provide beneficial insights for sustainable management of water resources in the country

Iran’s agriculture in the anthropocene

Abstract The anthropogenic impacts of development and frequent droughts have limited Iran’s water availability. This has major implications for Iran’s agricultural sector which is responsible for about 90% of water consumption at the national scale. This study investigates if declining water availability impacted agriculture in Iran. Using the Mann‐Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator methods, we explored the changes in Iran’s agricultural production and area during the 1981–2013 period. Despite decreasing water availability during this period, irrigated agricultural production and area continuously increased. This unsustainable agricultural development, which would have been impossible without the overabstraction of surface and ground water resources, has major long‐term water, food, environmental, and human security implications for Iran