Epidemiology and microbiology of recurrent UTI in women in the community in Oxfordshire, UK

Background: Recurrent urinary tract infection (rUTI) contributes to significant morbidity and antibiotic usage. Objectives: To characterize the age of women experiencing rUTI, the microbiology of rUTIs, and the risk of further rUTIs in Oxfordshire, UK. Patients and methods: We retrospectively analysed de-identified linked microbiology and hospital admissions data (Infections in Oxfordshire Research Database), between 2008 and 2019, including positive urine cultures from women aged ≥16 years in community settings. We defined rUTI as ≥2 positive urine cultures within 6 months or ≥3 within 12 months. Results: Of 201 927 women with urine culture performed, 84 809 (42%) had ≥1 positive culture, and 15 617 (18%) of these experienced ≥1 rUTI over a median (IQR) follow-up of 6 (3–9) years. Women with rUTI were 17.0 (95% CI: 16.3–17.7) years older on average. rUTI was commonest (6204; 40%) in those aged 70–89 years. Post-rUTI, the risk of further UTI within 6 months was 29.4% (95% CI: 28.7–30.2). Escherichia coli was detected in 65% of positive cultures. Among rUTIs where the index UTI was E. coli associated, the second UTI was also E. coli associated in 81% of cases. Conclusions: rUTIs represent a substantial healthcare burden, particularly in women >60 years. One-third of women experiencing rUTI have a further microbiologically confirmed UTI within 6 months

Children’s learning from a Smokefree sports programme: implications for health education

Objective: This article reports on a qualitative evaluation of the Love Life, Smokefree Sports primary school pilot intervention. This 8-week programme used sports and physical activity sessions to convey Smokefree messages to 120 children aged 10 and 11 in two primary schools in Sheffield in 2018. The study aimed to understand children’s experiences of participating in the programme. Its objectives were to explore children’s recall of the health promotion messages associated with each of the learning sessions; explore children’s perceptions of the meaningfulness of those messages in the context of their everyday lives; and identify and understand any contextual factors that might impact upon children’s recall and/or the meaningfulness of the Smokefree messages. Method: Qualitative data were generated with 25 children through focus groups after the programme concluded. Data were analysed thematically using cross-sectional, categorical indexing. Results: Learning from the programme was particularly likely to be described as meaningful by children when they could interact with material and visual representations of complex ideas and when sessions involved strongly embodied experiences. However, children did not always find it easy to relate learning to their everyday lives and sometimes struggled to reconcile pre-existing, contextualised understandings with intervention messages. We mobilise the concept of critical health literacy as a theoretical lens through which to interpret these findings. Conclusion: Health education should be meaningful in the context of children’s everyday lives. Starting from the premise that children are active critical health literacy practitioners and working with them to design and evaluate health education initiatives can promote this

C-reactive protein and neutrophil count laboratory test requests from primary care:what is the demand and would substitution by point of care technology be viable?

Aims: C-reactive protein (CRP) and neutrophil count (NC) are important diagnostic indicators of inflammation. Point-of-care (POC) technologies for these markers are available but rarely used in community settings in the UK. To inform the potential for POC tests, it is necessary to understand the demand for testing. We aimed to describe the frequency of CRP and NC test requests from primary care to central laboratory services, describe variability between practices and assess the relationship between the tests.Methods: We described the number of patients with either or both laboratory tests, and the volume of testing per individual and per practice, in a retrospective cohort of all adults in general practices in Oxfordshire, 2014–2016.Results: 372 017 CRP and 776 581 NC tests in 160 883 and 275 093 patients, respectively, were requested from 69 practices. CRP was tested mainly in combination with NC, while the latter was more often tested alone. The median (IQR) of CRP and NC tests/person tested was 1 (1–2) and 2 (1–3), respectively. The median (IQR) tests/ practice/week was 36 (22–52) and 72 (50–108), and per 1000 persons registered/practice/week was 4 (3–5) and 8 (7–9), respectively. The median (IQR) CRP and NC concentrations were 2.7 (0.9–7.9)mg/dL and 4.1 (3.1–5.5)×109/L, respectively.Conclusions: The high demand for CRP and NC testing in the community, and the range of results falling within the reportable range for current POC technologies highlight the opportunity for laboratory testing to be supplemented by POC testing in general practice

The prediction of suicide in severe mental illness:development and validation of a clinical prediction rule (OxMIS)

Assessment of suicide risk in individuals with severe mental illness is currently inconsistent, and based on clinical decision-making with or without tools developed for other purposes. We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for suicide using data from linked population-based registers in individuals with severe mental illness. A national cohort of 75,158 Swedish individuals aged 15–65 with a diagnosis of severe mental illness (schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, and bipolar disorder) with 574,018 clinical patient episodes between 2001 and 2008, split into development (58,771 patients, 494 suicides) and external validation (16,387 patients, 139 suicides) samples. A multivariable derivation model was developed to determine the strength of pre-specified routinely collected socio-demographic and clinical risk factors, and then tested in external validation. We measured discrimination and calibration for prediction of suicide at 1 year using specified risk cut-offs. A 17-item clinical risk prediction model for suicide was developed and showed moderately good measures of discrimination (c-index 0.71) and calibration. For risk of suicide at 1 year, using a pre-specified 1% cut-off, sensitivity was 55% (95% confidence interval [CI] 47–63%) and specificity was 75% (95% CI 74–75%). Positive and negative predictive values were 2% and 99%, respectively. The model was used to generate a simple freely available web-based probability-based risk calculator (Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide tool or OxMIS) without categorical cut-offs. A scalable prediction score for suicide in individuals with severe mental illness is feasible. If validated in other samples and linked to effective interventions, using a probability score may assist clinical decision-making

Mixed effects approach to the analysis of the stepped wedge cluster randomised trial—Investigating the confounding effect of time through simulation

<div><p>Background</p><p>A stepped wedge cluster randomised trial (SWCRT) is a multicentred study which allows an intervention to be rolled out at sites in a random order. Once the intervention is initiated at a site, all participants within that site remain exposed to the intervention for the remainder of the study.</p><p>The time since the start of the study (“calendar time”) may affect outcome measures through underlying time trends or periodicity. The time since the intervention was introduced to a site (“exposure time”) may also affect outcomes cumulatively for successful interventions, possibly in addition to a step change when the intervention began.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Motivated by a SWCRT of self-monitoring for bipolar disorder, we conducted a simulation study to compare model formulations to analyse data from a SWCRT under 36 different scenarios in which time was related to the outcome (improvement in mood score). The aim was to find a model specification that would produce reliable estimates of intervention effects under different scenarios. Nine different formulations of a linear mixed effects model were fitted to these datasets. These models varied in the specification of calendar and exposure times.</p><p>Results</p><p>Modelling the effects of the intervention was best accomplished by including terms for both calendar time and exposure time. Treating time as categorical (a separate parameter for each measurement time-step) achieved the best coverage probabilities and low bias, but at a cost of wider confidence intervals compared to simpler models for those scenarios which were sufficiently modelled by fewer parameters. Treating time as continuous and including a quadratic time term performed similarly well, with slightly larger variations in coverage probability, but narrower confidence intervals and in some cases lower bias. The impact of misspecifying the covariance structure was comparatively small.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>We recommend that unless there is a priori information to indicate the form of the relationship between time and outcomes, data from SWCRTs should be analysed with a linear mixed effects model that includes separate categorical terms for calendar time and exposure time. Prespecified sensitivity analyses should consider the different formulations of these time effects in the model, to assess their impact on estimates of intervention effects.</p></div

Sepsis recognition tools in acute ambulatory care::associations with process of care and clinical outcomes in a service evaluation of an Emergency Multidisciplinary Unit in Oxfordshire

To assess the performance of currently available sepsis recognition tools in patients referred to a community-based acute ambulatory care unit.Service evaluation of consecutive patients over a 4-month period.Community-based acute ambulatory care unit.Observations, blood results and outcome data were analysed from patients with a suspected infection. Clinical features at first assessment were used to populate sepsis recognition tools including: systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, National Early Warning Score (NEWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) criteria. Scores were assessed against the clinical need for escalated care (use of intravenous antibiotics, fluids, ongoing ambulatory care or hospital treatment) and poor clinical outcome (all-cause mortality and readmission at 30 days after index assessment).Of 533 patients (median age 81 years), 316 had suspected infection with 120 patients requiring care escalated beyond simple community care. SIRS had the highest positive predictive value (50.9%, 95% CI 41.6% to 60.3%) and negative predictive value (68.9%, 95% CI 62.6% to 75.3%) for the need for escalated care. Both NEWS and SIRS were better at predicting the need for escalated care than qSOFA and NICE criteria in patients with suspected infection (all P<0.001). While new-onset confusion predicted the need for escalated care for infection in patients ≥85 years old (n=114), 23.7% of patients ≥85 years had new-onset confusion without evidence for infection.Acute ambulatory care clinicians should use caution in applying the new NICE endorsed criteria for determining the need for intravenous therapy and hospital-based location of care. NICE criteria have poorer performance when compared against NEWS and SIRS and new-onset confusion was prevalent in patients aged ≥85 years without infection

Towards a framework for analysis of eye-tracking studies in the three dimensional environment: a study of visual search by experienced readers of endoluminal CT colonography.

Objective: Eye tracking in three dimensions is novel, but established descriptors derived from two-dimensional (2D) studies are not transferable. We aimed to develop metrics suitable for statistical comparison of eye-tracking data obtained from readers of three-dimensional (3D) “virtual” medical imaging, using CT colonography (CTC) as a typical example. Methods: Ten experienced radiologists were eye tracked while observing eight 3D endoluminal CTC videos. Sub-sequently, we developed metrics that described their visual search patterns based on concepts derived from 2D gaze studies. Statistical methods were developed to allow analysis of the metrics. Results: Eye tracking was possible for all readers. Visual dwell on the moving region of interest (ROI) was defined as pursuit of the moving object across multiple frames. Using this concept of pursuit, five categories of metrics were defined that allowed characterization of reader gaze behaviour. These were time to first pursuit, identi-fication and assessment time, pursuit duration, ROI size and pursuit frequency. Additional subcategories allowed us to further characterize visual search between readers in the test population. Conclusion: We propose metrics for the characterization of visual search of 3D moving medical images. These metrics can be used to compare readers’ visual search patterns and provide a reproducible framework for the analysis of gaze tracking in the 3D environment. Advances in knowledge: This article describes a novel set of metrics that can be used to describe gaze behaviour when eye tracking readers during interpretation of 3D medical images. These metrics build on those established for 2D eye tracking and are applicable to increasingly common 3D medical image displays

Identification of low risk of violent crime in severe mental illness with a clinical prediction tool (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool [OxMIV]):a derivation and validation study

BACKGROUND: Current approaches to stratify patients with psychiatric disorders into groups on the basis of violence risk are limited by inconsistency, variable accuracy, and unscalability. To address the need for a scalable and valid tool to assess violence risk in patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, we describe the derivation of a score based on routinely collected factors and present findings from external validation. METHODS: On the basis of a national cohort of 75158 Swedish individuals aged 15-65 years with a diagnosis of severe mental illness (schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder) with 574018 patient episodes between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2008, we developed predictive models for violent offending (primary outcome) within 1 year of hospital discharge for inpatients or clinical contact with psychiatric services for outpatients (patient episode) through linkage of population-based registers. We developed a derivation model to determine the relative influence of prespecified criminal history and sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, which are mostly routinely collected, and then tested it in an external validation. We measured discrimination and calibration for prediction of violent offending at 1 year using specified risk cutoffs. FINDINGS: Of the cohort of 75158 patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, we assigned 58771 (78andpercnt;) to the derivation sample and 16387 (22andpercnt;) to the validation sample. In the derivation sample, 830 (1andpercnt;) individuals committed a violent offence within 12 months of their patient episode. We developed a 16-item model. The strongest predictors of violent offending within 12 months were conviction for previous violent crime (adjusted odds ratio 5andmiddot;03 [95andpercnt; CI 4andmiddot;23-5andmiddot;98]; pandlt;0andmiddot;0001), male sex (2·32 [1·91-2·81]; pandlt;0·0001), and age (0·63 per 10 years of age [0·58-0·67]; pandlt;0andmiddot;0001). In external validation, the model showed good measures of discrimination (c-index 0·89 [0·85-0·93]) and calibration. For risk of violent offending at 1 year, with a 5andpercnt; cutoff, sensitivity was 62andpercnt; (95andpercnt; CI 55-68) and specificity was 94andpercnt; (93-94). The positive predictive value was 11andpercnt; and the negative predictive value was more than 99andpercnt;. We used the model to generate a simple web-based risk calculator (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool [OxMIV]). INTERPRETATION: We have developed a prediction score in a national cohort of patients with schizophrenia spectrum or bipolar disorder, which can be used as an adjunct to decision making in clinical practice by identifying those who are at low risk of violent offending. The low positive predictive value suggests that further clinical assessment in individuals at high risk of violent offending is required to establish who might benefit from additional risk management. Further validation in other countries is needed. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust and Swedish Research Council.</p

Risk of death by suicide following self-harm presentations to healthcare: development and validation of a multivariable clinical prediction rule (OxSATS)

Background Assessment of suicide risk in individuals who have self-harmed is common in emergency departments, but is often based on tools developed for other purposes. Objective We developed and validated a predictive model for suicide following self-harm. Methods We used data from Swedish population-based registers. A cohort of 53 172 individuals aged 10+ years, with healthcare episodes of self-harm, was split into development (37 523 individuals, of whom 391 died from suicide within 12 months) and validation (15 649 individuals, 178 suicides within 12 months) samples. We fitted a multivariable accelerated failure time model for the association between risk factors and time to suicide. The final model contains 11 factors: age, sex, and variables related to substance misuse, mental health and treatment, and history of self-harm. Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis guidelines were followed for the design and reporting of this work. Findings An 11-item risk model to predict suicide was developed using sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, and showed good discrimination (c-index 0.77, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.78) and calibration in external validation. For risk of suicide within 12 months, using a 1% cut-off, sensitivity was 82% (75% to 87%) and specificity was 54% (53% to 55%). A web-based risk calculator is available (Oxford Suicide Assessment Tool for Self-harm or OxSATS). Conclusions OxSATS accurately predicts 12-month risk of suicide. Further validations and linkage to effective interventions are required to examine clinical utility. Clinical implications Using a clinical prediction score may assist clinical decision-making and resource allocation

Urine tenofovir and dried blood spot tenofovir diphosphate concentrations and viraemia in people taking efavirenz and dolutegravir based antiretroviral therapy

Objective: We aimed to determine whether urine tenofovir (TFV) and dried blood spot (DBS) tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentrations are associated with concurrent HIV viraemia. Design: Cross-sectional study among people with HIV (PWH) receiving tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods: We used dual tandem liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry to measure urine TFV and DBS TFV-DP concentrations, and evaluated their associations with concurrent viraemia ≥1000 copies/mL using logistic regression models. In exploratory analyses, we used receiver operating curves to estimate optimal urine TFV and DBS TFV-DP thresholds to predict concurrent viraemia. Results: Among 124 participants, 68 (54.8%) were women, median age was 39 years (interquartile range [IQR] 34–45) and 74 (59.7%) were receiving efavirenz versus 50 (40.3%) receiving dolutegravir. Higher concentrations of urine TFV (1000 ng/mL increase, odds ratio [OR] 0.97 95%CI 0.94–0.99, p = 0.005) and DBS TFV-DP (100 fmol/punch increase, OR 0.76, 95%CI 0.67–0.86, p < 0.001) were associated with lower odds of viraemia. There was evidence that these associations were stronger among people receiving dolutegravir than among people receiving efavirenz (urine TFV p = 0.072, DBS TFV-DP p = 0.003). Nagelkerke Pseudo-R2 for the DBS TFV-DP models was higher than for the urine TFV models, demonstrating a stronger relationship between DBS TFV-DP and viraemia. Among people receiving dolutegravir, a DBS TFV-DP concentration of 483 fmol/punch had 88% sensitivity and 85% specificity to predict concurrent viraemia ≥1000 copies/ml. Conclusions: Among PWH receiving TDF-based ART, urine TFV concentrations, and in particular DBS TFV-DP concentrations, were strongly associated with concurrent viraemia, especially among people receiving dolutegravir