Determining areas that require indoor insecticide spraying using Multi Criteria Evaluation, a decision-support tool for malaria vector control programmes in the Central Highlands of Madagascar

BACKGROUND: The highlands of Madagascar present an unstable transmission pattern of malaria. The population has no immunity, and the central highlands have been the sites of epidemics with particularly high fatality. The most recent epidemic occurred in the 1980s, and caused about 30,000 deaths. The fight against malaria epidemics in the highlands has been based on indoor insecticide spraying to control malaria vectors. Any preventive programme involving generalised cover in the highlands will require very substantial logistical support. We used multicriteria evaluation, by the method of weighted linear combination, as basis for improved targeting of actions by determining priority zones for intervention. RESULTS: Image analysis and field validation showed the accuracy of mapping rice fields to be between 82.3% and 100%, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.86 to 0.99. A significant positive correlation was observed between the abundance of the vector Anopheles funestus and temperature; the correlation coefficient was 0.599 (p < 0.001). A significant negative correlation was observed between vector abundance and human population density: the correlation coefficient was -0.551 (p < 0.003). Factor weights were determined by pair-wise comparison and the consistency ratio was 0.04. Risk maps of the six study zones were obtained according to a gradient of risk. Nine of thirteen results of alert confirmed by the Epidemiological Surveillance Post were in concordance with the risk map. CONCLUSION: This study is particularly valuable for the management of vector control programmes, and particularly the reduction of the vector population with a view to preventing disease. The risk map obtained can be used to identify priority zones for the management of resources, and also help avoid systematic and generalised spraying throughout the highlands: such spraying is particularly difficult and expensive. The accuracy of the mapping, both as concerns time and space, is dependent on the availability of data. Continuous monitoring of malaria transmission factors must be undertaken to detect any changes. A regular case notification allows risk map to be verified. These actions should therefore be implemented so that risk maps can be satisfactorily assessed

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis surveillance and cascade of care in Madagascar: a five-year (2012-2017) retrospective study

In Madagascar, the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) surveillance programme was launched in late 2012 wherein previously treated TB cases and symptomatic MDR-TB contacts (hereafter called presumptive MDR-TB cases) undergo drug susceptibility testing. This retrospective review had per aim to provide an update on the national MDR-TB epidemiology, assess and enhance programmatic performance and assess Madagascar's MDR-TB cascade of care.; For 2012-2017, national TB control programme notification, clinical management data and reference laboratory data were gathered. The development and coverage of the surveillance programme, the MDR-TB epidemiology and programmatic performance indicators were assessed using descriptive, logistic and spatial statistical analyses. Data for 2017 was further used to map Madagascar's TB and MDR-TB cascade of care.; The geographical coverage and diagnostic and referral capacities of the MDR-TB surveillance programme were gradually expanded whereas regional variations persist with regard to coverage, referral rates and sample referral delays. Overall, the rate of MDR-TB among presumptive MDR-TB cases remained relatively stable, ranging between 3.9% in 2013 and 4.4% in 2017. Most MDR-TB patients were lost in the second gap of the cascade pertaining to MDR-TB cases reaching diagnostic centres but failing to be accurately diagnosed (59.0%). This poor success in diagnosis of MDR-TB is due to both the current use of low-sensitivity smear microscopy as a first-line diagnostic assay for TB and the limited access to any form of drug susceptibility testing. Presumptive MDR-TB patients' sample referral took a mean delay of 28 days before testing. Seventy-five percent of diagnosed MDR-TB patients were appropriately initiated on treatment, and 33% reached long-term recurrence-free survival.; An expansion of the coverage and strengthening of MDR-TB diagnostic and management capacities are indicated across all regions of Madagascar. With current limitations, the surveillance programme data is likely to underestimate the true MDR-TB burden in the country and an updated national MDR-TB prevalence survey is warranted. In absence of multiple drivers of an MDR-TB epidemic, including high MDR-TB rates, high HIV infection rates and inter-country migration, Madagascar is in a favourable starting position for MDR-TB control and elimination

Bayesian mapping of pulmonary tuberculosis in Antananarivo, Madagascar

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tuberculosis (TB), an infectious disease caused by the <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis </it>is endemic in Madagascar. The capital, Antananarivo is the most seriously affected area. TB had a non-random spatial distribution in this setting, with clustering in the poorer areas. The aim of this study was to explore this pattern further by a Bayesian approach, and to measure the associations between the spatial variation of TB risk and national control program indicators for all neighbourhoods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Combination of a Bayesian approach and a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was developed to produce smooth risk maps of TB and to model relationships between TB new cases and national TB control program indicators. The TB new cases were collected from records of the 16 Tuberculosis Diagnostic and Treatment Centres (DTC) of the city from 2004 to 2006. And five TB indicators were considered in the analysis: number of cases undergoing retreatment, number of patients with treatment failure and those suffering relapse after the completion of treatment, number of households with more than one case, number of patients lost to follow-up, and proximity to a DTC.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In Antananarivo, 43.23% of the neighbourhoods had a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) above 1, of which 19.28% with a TB risk significantly higher than the average. Identified high TB risk areas were clustered and the distribution of TB was found to be associated mainly with the number of patients lost to follow-up (SIR: 1.10, CI 95%: 1.02-1.19) and the number of households with more than one case (SIR: 1.13, CI 95%: 1.03-1.24).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The spatial pattern of TB in Antananarivo and the contribution of national control program indicators to this pattern highlight the importance of the data recorded in the TB registry and the use of spatial approaches for assessing the epidemiological situation for TB. Including these variables into the model increases the reproducibility, as these data are already available for individual DTCs. These findings may also be useful for guiding decisions related to disease control strategies.</p

Geographical and environmental approaches to urban malaria in Antananarivo (Madagascar)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies, conducted in the urban of Antananarivo, showed low rate of confirmed malaria cases. We used a geographical and environmental approach to investigate the contribution of environmental factors to urban malaria in Antananarivo.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Remote sensing data were used to locate rice fields, which were considered to be the principal mosquito breeding sites. We carried out supervised classification by the maximum likelihood method. Entomological study allowed vector species determination from collected larval and adult mosquitoes. Mosquito infectivity was studied, to assess the risk of transmission, and the type of mosquito breeding site was determined. Epidemiological data were collected from November 2006 to December 2007, from public health centres, to determine malaria incidence. Polymerase chain reaction was carried out on dried blood spots from patients, to detect cases of malaria. Rapid diagnostic tests were used to confirm malaria cases among febrile school children in a school survey.</p> <p>A geographical information system was constructed for data integration. Altitude, temperature, rainfall, population density and rice field surface area were analysed and the effects of these factors on the occurrence of confirmed malaria cases were studied.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Polymerase chain reaction confirmed malaria in 5.1% of the presumed cases. Entomological studies showed <it>An. arabiensis </it>as potential vector. Rice fields remained to be the principal breeding sites. Travel report was considered as related to the occurrence of <it>P. falciparum </it>malaria cases.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Geographical and environmental factors did not show direct relationship with malaria incidence but they seem ensuring suitability of vector development. Absence of relationship may be due to a lack of statistical power. Despite the presence of <it>An. arabiensis</it>, scarce parasitic reservoir and rapid access to health care do not constitute optimal conditions to a threatening malaria transmission. However, imported malaria case is suggestive to sustain the pocket transmission in Antananarivo.</p

Seroprevalence of malaria in inhabitants of the urban zone of Antananarivo, Madagascar

BACKGROUND: Antananarivo, the capital of Madagascar, is located at an altitude of over 1,200 m. The environment at this altitude is not particularly favourable to malaria transmission, but malaria nonetheless remains a major public health problem. The aim of this study was to evaluate exposure to malaria in the urban population of Antananarivo, by measuring the specific seroprevalence of Plasmodium falciparum. METHODS: Serological studies specific for P. falciparum were carried out with an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT). In a representative population of Antananarivo, 1,059 healthy volunteers were interviewed and serum samples were taken. RESULTS: The seroprevalence of IgG+IgA+IgM was 56.1% and that of IgM was 5.9%. The major risk factor associated with a positive IgG+IgA+IgM IFAT was travel outside Antananarivo, whether in the central highlands or on the coast. The abundance of rice fields in certain urban districts was not associated with a higher seroprevalence. CONCLUSION: Malaria transmission levels are low in Antananarivo, but seroprevalence is high. Humans come into contact with the parasite primarily when travelling outside the city. Further studies are required to identify indigenous risk factors and intra-city variations more clearly

Contribution of a geographical information system and remote sensing in the prevention of risk of epidemic malaria in the Central Highlands of Madagascar

La recolonisation des Hautes terres par l’An. funestus dont les gîtes larvaires principaux sont les rizières a été l’origine de l’épidémie des années 1980s. La pulvérisation intra domiciliaire d’insecticide a constitué l’une des stratégies adoptées pour contrôler l’épidémie. Notre étude s’est intéressée à six zones des Hautes Terres centrales. Les résultats de la détermination des rizières utilisant la télédétection, combinés à d’autres facteurs connus influençant la transmission du paludisme ont permis d’établir des cartes de zones à risque prioritaires pour la pulvérisation d’insecticide à l’aide de l’analyse multicritère par la méthode de combinaison linéaire pondérée. Le paludisme urbain d’Antananarivo diffère du reste de celui des Hautes Terres. Un Système d’Information Géographique a été utilisé pour étudier l’impact des facteurs environnementaux sur le faible taux d’incidence du paludisme observé à partir de neuf Centres de Santé de Base ayant participé à l’étude du paludisme urbainThe reappearance of epidemic malaria in the highlands of Madagascar during the late 1980’s has been attributed to the reestablishment of Anopheles funestus. Rice fields constitute their principal larval habitats. Control strategies to prevent epidemic malaria, have been based on indoor residual spraying of insecticides. Our study was conducted in six zones in the Highlands. Rice fields were determined using remote sensing imagery. Results were combined with factors known to influence the transmission of malaria. Multicriteria evaluation, by the method of weighted linear combination, was used as basis for improved targeting of actions by determining priority zones for intervention. The factors driving malaria transmission in urban Antananarivo differ from the other regions of the highlands. A Geographical Information System was used to study the role of environmental factors on the low malarial incidence rates observed in nine community based health centres in Antananariv

Socioenvironmental determinants as indicators of plague risk in the central highlands of Madagascar: Experience of Ambositra and Tsiroanomandidy districts

Background Human plague cases are reported annually in the central highland regions of Madagascar, where the disease is endemic. The socioenvironmental characteristics and lifestyles of the populations of the central highland localities could be linked to this endemicity. The aim of this study was to determine socioenvironmental determinants that may be associated with plague risk and explain this variation in epidemiological contexts.Methods The current study was based on the distribution of plague cases between 2006 and 2015 that occurred in localities of districts positioned in the central highlands. Household surveys were performed from June to August 2017 using a questionnaire and direct observations on the socioenvironmental aspects of households in selected localities. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to highlight the socioenvironmental parameters associated with plague risk in both districts.Results A total of 503 households were surveyed, of which 54.9% (276/503) were in Ambositra and 45.1% (227/503) were in Tsiroanomandidy. Multivariate analyses showed that thatched roofs [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.63; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.78–3.88] and ground floor houses [AOR: 2.11; 95% CI: 1.3–3.45-] were significantly associated with the vulnerability of a household to plague risk (p value<0 . 05 ).Conclusions Plague risk in two districts of the Malagasy central highlands is associated with human socioenvironmental characteristics. Socioenvironmental characteristics are parameters expressing spatial heterogeneity through the difference in epidemiological expression of the plague in Ambositra and Tsiroanomandidy. These characteristics could be used as indicators of vulnerability to plague risk in plague-endemic areas